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Looking back, last years year end results were published 30 May so we can expect a useful update at some point over the next couple of weeks to add to the fun.

Suspect it will include additional info about progress re the escrow account.

I’m pretty sure funds being deposited will lead to an increase versus the current situation whereby the ability to recover the compensation is an unknown.

Sorry Airiel ....to be clear I was looking at the 14p / 15p ceiling we hit when the Arbitration Award was published.

Get through this bit of congestion and agree 20p is the next level of resistance.

Much

Agree ... it feels different this time. Normally we get the rise, head and shoulders and back down we go. Not this time.

Feels like an assault in 14p is happening and if we break it then 16p is the next level of resistance.

The government was issued shares in return for injecting cash into the business.

Once they reached a certain value (I think it was something like 72p) the government was in profit so was able to place its shares with investors / sell into the market and get its money back at a profit.

So the gov ended up repaid and with a profit but Lloyds ended up with 77 bn shares on the market.

The buy back is whittling this back down at a rate of 4 bn a year and in doing so boosting EPS by around 6.5% per annum. 5 more years of buy backs at the current shareprice and we’ll have just 40bn shares in issue and a market cap of £20bn.

It’s as if the market is fixe in the shareprice and has forgotten the fundamentals.

Good to see they have used the bumper start to the year to out £800m into the final early oensiin scheme which is now fully funded awaiting an actuarial re-evaluation.

To be clear if you take this out of the equation they’re set to make £10bn this year with a market cap of £30bn.

That’s a PE of 3………something’s got to give soon but at the same time if the market wants to keep serving up the shares for cancelling at sub 50p, as a longer term investor I say let it.

Barclays results were £350m above consensus driven mostly by Retail Banking.

Nat West figures tomorrow are going to be very interesting and if also strong then the read across to Lloyds suggests a re-rating will take place on the back of potentially stella earnings as we are even more highly geared to the UK market.

Potentially exciting times ahead.

Brilliant Ovets .. a perfect summary .. now where are the keys to the garden shed.... :)

The way I read it is that so long as RKH win then the costs of the annulment case will all fall on Italy.

Yes they have to pay for their representation in the run up to the hearing but this should be recoverable so long as the appeal and final judgement remain in their favour.

Really positive development. I don't see this as a request to start negotiating.

So far as I am concerned, Italy are being told to pay up and get on with it albeit into an escrow account so they can waste their time and money on a pointless appeal if they want to. We should therefore have further positive news within the next 30 days once this has been sorted.

They are then very welcome to proceed with their pointless and ground less appeal whilst paying us another £16m plus in interest which provides us with EPS equivalent of 3p for the year!

12p os a key point of resistance that looks like it is about to be broken which takes us to 15p on the charts... break that and we should head into the 20s with any positive update from Navitas adding fuel to the fire.

All looks very positive.

It’s strange the way some people exhibit such destructive and confrontational behaviours.

We’re all invested here to make money and share ideas and opinions. Nothing wrong with disagreeing so long as it’s backed up by reasoned thinking and opinions / ideas.

Sadly for some people, opinion forming discussions and value adding conversations are an alien concept.

Instead we get to see the script of the Jeremy Kyle played out and we all know what happened there…….

LTI,

He’s like that annoying kid at school that no-one could stand but keeps showing up.

At school we could have shoved his head down the toilet. Sadly on here our only option is to block him, however I do think it’s important that everyone has the chance to show just how bitter and dumb they are……

Oh Gazzleberry. Is your brain hurting again?

It’s a hypothesis….. it means making some assumptions because none of us know what the future holds , however it doesn’t stop us running the model and seeing how it potentially plays out based upon the knowns.

You can now place your bets based upon suppositions rather than guesswork. Has always worked for me so thought I would share.

The share buy back and lack of impact on the share price is a really interesting situation.

Assuming UBS buy back 4bn shares this year at an average of 50pthethe. Umber of shares in issue drops from 67bn to 63 bn so profit / earnings per share grows by 6%.

Assuming the price remains under 50p and they buy another 4 bn shares next year the number of shares in issue drops to 59bn and EPS grows another 6.5%.

Of this continues and the market refuses to re-rate the stock you a point in 5 years time where there are just 40bn shares in issue. Assuming profits of £8bn that gives you EPS of 20p. PE of 7 and the stock is trading at £1.40. Assuming dividends of £3bn then across 40bn shares that’s a div of 7.5p per share.That’s a dividend yield of 5.36%.

F the shares are still trading at 50p then it will be on a PE of 2.5 and a yield of 15%!

My point is that we are going to reach a tipping point which sees a major re-rating.

The question is when?

Ha ha ha… good point Sufcessex…… glad someone is awake this morning ??

Goes ex div today so with a 1.6p div, expect it to open around 48.2p.

Should present a nice opportunity for the Morgan Stanley algorithm to sweep up some nice cheap stock for cancelling.

Would be surprised not to see the share price back to where it started the day and then we have a number of US Banks reporting 1st quarter earnings tomorrow.

Can someone remind me how to block the covid conspiracy theory dude? He’s clearly on the wrong board and doing my head in.??????

Oh Gazzleberry,

Here you go about spouting absolute tosh.

‘Retail Banking barely makes enough money to cover the tea and biscuits’. Really? Please do tell us more.

Do you have any idea what % of Lloyds Bank employees are cashiers? And s that what you think a modern bank with a shrinking branch network operating in a digital economy mainly consists of?

Trust me, a motivated workforce properly incentivised is a highly desirable part of the stakeholder jigsaw.

I know my year end bonus motivates me to do a great job and the share options make it expensive to leave leading to increased loyalty.

Are you a shareholder and if so why if you are so bearish re Lloyds. It just doesn’t add up. Either you have a grievance or mental health issues..??

Totally agree Asperger.

I think it was not to raise their heads above the parapet during the cost of living crisis.

Embarassement of riches coming our way soon ..... nice problem to have.

Not sure you are grasping the point here. The £900m deficit still to clear is based on the previous valuation when base rates were 0.5% and ahead of the Dec 2022 actuarial valuation which will provide update numbers.

For the reasons I have pointed out, the £900m will be wiped out and the pension schemes probably in heavy surplus.

The reverting to name calling speaks volumes.

Spot on Asperger.

Imagine if they used the £2bn allocated to buy back shares, to pay out as a dividend too .....

You'd have the current div of £1.6bn + £2.2bn paid into the Final Salary Pension scheme last year plus the £2bn of share buybacks and you have £5.8bn!

Not saying its gonna happen but with with 65bn shares in issue thats a dividend of 9p and yield of 18% ....

Go figure!