My Re-post from this Monday...15 May 2020 10:50
Monday's post reposted for those who missed it:
Hello all,
Like most I expected a bigger rise today, however we were already aware of a good portion of the RNS as that was already being worked on. The key for me, as stated by others, was the point on Avacta developing "Affimer reagents that can work in pairs as well as singly" as this gives us a real competitive advantage. I expect the market to digest this in the next few days re SP.
One question to start things is this sentence “we should have the best possible COVID-19 antigen test”. Do we take this to mean having the best possible Antigen test that Avacta is capable of producing. Or the best possible Antigen test on the market. Even if it was the former, I think the likelihood is that Avacta’s testing will prove to be one of the best tests based on what we know so far.
The strong news is that our collaboration partners can take the baton on. In particular Cytiva on the rapid testing strips.
Might be useful to consider what we know and what we do not yet know, specific to Antigen Testing work:
What WE KNOW:
We are developing a world class, globally produced, affordable, rapid Antigen Test
We have 2 key partners so far for Covid19 Antigen testing
We are actively seeking commercialisation deals
We are seeking further collaboration partners
We will be going for EU and US approvals
What WE DO NOT KNOW
How accurate the Antigen Testing will be, though it promises to be highly accurate but we do not have the % yet
The granting of EU/ US approvals
The details of the commercialisation deal / The value of the contracts
Which other collaboration partners we will sign up with
Dual listing possibilities
*****Will the collaborations involve a Vaccine partner…..**********
The first 3 on the “what we do not know” combined could take us into the £6/7 per share territory.
The last dual listing could further help increase that value.
As for collaborations that we haven’t even thought about and by this I mean a “left centre” success that could happen but is not on the investor radar then I do not think a double digit pounds per share price is unreasonable. Look right now, no one really knows how far this share could go. But what is clear is that no one is able to put up a strong argument that says Avacta cannot leave our current SP behind when there is so much left on the table to go after in terms of the multi billion market.
I notice the US announced a test tonight coming on the market in the next month or two (another company) which can do 100k tests a day and then ramp up to 300k a day. That is nowhere near the testing the US will need to get the public confidence back if they want to turn around their economy. That means there are huge chunks of the market for Avacta to go after. And the likelihood is that the crisis will need a number of successful players in the markets so help deliver a global solution. Above milestones are inter-dependent which is why we can still
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