Member Info for Mr.Flibbles

Multiple 50,000 share buys is encouraging today. Would like to think this could be the start of buying from the UK visit. Surely someone with deep pockets would want to take a punt on AXL?

The problem with selling is you to find something with just as much upside. You can get an >8% yield with LGEN if you need the income but for growth, you'd need something like AXL but in South America. We are pretty much here at the bottom of the seasonal cycle and have winter to look forward too where we'll probably be 25p than today's price.

TipTop43 if you need a monthly dividend wait for this to recover to 16p and sell I3E for SMIF. If you don't then don't sell at the seasonal low point (Market cap and E/V just £160m for 21k production) but wait for winter. It could be a cold winter this time round!

Other than the extreme share price reaction there is nothing too surprising given the commodity price and seasonality and changes at the top of the company. This is a much-needed re-set. Onwards, sideways then upwards.

Sure but there should be some relationship. I am unable to plot a line chart automatically of AECO. Has anyone got a line chart over 1 and 3 years?

No animals were harmed making this chart.

In reality, this natural gas price chart will be all that matters and Zoo out 1 year to view the seasonal moves:

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

I3E is a geared play on gas despite its barbell in oil.

Yes AXL should be propping up portfolios due to its rapid growth rate that goes some way to overcome the declining oil price. I am actually an oil bear invested in AXL and this is my most overweight position in O&G.

Well done. Always good to get a low price indicating sell.

The risk-free rate of return became very attractive in the last 5 days sending risk assets lower and yields higher. The risk-free rate is the theoretical rate of return that an investor would expect on an investment with zero risk. Given the risk I3E probably just got hit by an institution switching investments or a retired PI throwing the towel in and buying a Money Market fund that pays 5%. The risk free-rate is not inflation protected so its actually no risk-free.

We can clearly see it undershot but not as much to the downside and is possibly trending upwards. Gas will never regain them highs but it is starting to head in the right direction. I have plotted this chart with Henry Hub against US spot gas:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yrVpasQL/

Not saying AXL does not possesses these superpowers. It may well do. Any other stock that pays out a dividend will be tied to the commodity price even the best ones like I3E, PTAL, BP, Shell... can AXL grow faster than declines in oil price yet when oil prices are up AXL will be more like £150m market cap!

For LEXION's Dogs theory to be valid, it assumes that AXL possesses superpowers enabling it to accelerate production growth sufficiently to offset any decline in the O&G price. This is presuming that the "Dogs" are heavily dependent on the O&G price.

The theory is supported by the warrant holders (and in my opinion low booked reserves) keeping this share low. Both these will be resolved in time.

The risk is that an investor (yes you or me) will capitulate before the theory can be tested if there is heavy selling.

The amount of money we have borrowed, one would think that an acquisition is in order as its just too much for working capital. Targeting oil would be nice.

I believe the recent low of Henry Hub has been reached this month, as it typically follows the Gas spot price. Since hitting its lows in April, the Gas spot price has been trending upwards, indicating that we are currently at the lowest point in the global gas indexes. This has to explain our current low share price and highlights the pivotal phase in the cycle. While UK natural gas and TTF have rebounded from their lows, I am not considering Europe due to its idiosyncratic nature.

The bearish the view the better the acquisition opportunity and this works both ways for I3E.

Heading in the right direction now with more net buyers.

It's hard to move away from daily movements and look ahead to the energy transition. Copper, Zinc and Lead appear to have bounced off the lows now.

177.28% gain in 5 years and a slight slowdown of +50% in 1 year is not too shabby for share price growth. Nice and steady. It all needs to come together by the end of the year when the warrants have gone.

Is the forum blaming WCSBCanuck post for the recent fall? I think it's just a coincidence with oil stocks falling in May due to increased supply from Russia and Iran etc.... we now have the prospects of the US driving seasons, gas prices bottom passed, SPR needing refilling...

No RNS to confirm any of the resumptions? I speculate there are some sort of hold-up or waiting for some sort of agreement.

Why is the scheduled downtime not in Oct or Nov?