Member Info for Mr.Flibbles

Flavourshaker, I was on a low salary in my 20's and 30's. I invest my pension in a global passive large and a rare global small-cap index. Just £500 a month (including employer) for 30 years at 10% per annum will give you a pot of over £1m where you can then draw down 4% in retirement which is great if any mortgage has been paid off?

https://www.thecalculatorsite.com/finance/calculators/compoundinterestcalculator.php

Back to AXL, great to see some chunky sells coming in for AXL that means a buyer has been found at this level for anyone over the 10%

No volume whatsoever today. But. And this is odd. I can sell £30k in one go. This over 10% clause has to be overblown given the fundamentals, 1-year share price trend and the abundance of liquidity. I have 16% of my portfolio in this and this my maximum allocation to a single investment and AXL is my only direct investment. I cant add unless the AXL share price falls. This is if not the best investment the market has to offer with the only risk being geopolitical, thankfully AXL is not in the UK.

Share price performance maybe indicative. Your not going going to get 30% upside in 2 weeks given the closing price today so it has to be longer.

The EGL discount widened dramatically over the past month or so. A reversal in sentiment would close this discount adding 8% to any recovery. We just don't know when this would happen but expect buybacks to be announced by the BOD. to help take advantage.

Https://www.tradingview.com/x/cMsUr5mx/

Looks good to me on the RSI and MACD*.

I consider this a dip and have added.

*I don't tend to use the other rubbish indicators that are more bearish.

Yeah Canacol need to sell has been the opportunity here and will be managed.

Agree Flavour, 17p could prove to be a buy zone as we wake up this morning and see the RSI has hit the buy zone where we have reliably gone up 3 times over the past 12 months :-)

On a separate point. Top 3 holders:

1. Edale Capital LLP 8.736% 5 M$

2. Tim Leslie 2.967% 2 M$

3. Yacktman Asset Management 2.832% 2 M$

From what I can guess only Edale Capital LLP are at risk of going over 10% presuming they have warrants left.

Dig deeper, Edale Capital LLP is an absolute return asset manager, to me, I am funds and trusts investor, to see an absolute return asset manager invest in AXL is absolutely stunning. I am sure they could be involved to help manage anyone going over 10% given the nature of being a low-volatility fund and being the top holder.

KingSuarez it sounds nutts I know. But it was mentioned by an oil person on Bloomberg TV this morning. It has been known for a couple of years that Lithium can be efficiently extracted from oil and gas wastewater. We know Lithium is most commonly sourced from salt brines in South America using solar evaporation, a costly process that can take years and wastes much of the lithium along the way, the team behind the new study explains that they designed specific membranes to efficiently recover the metal from water generated in oil and gas production:

https://www.mining.com/how-lithium-can-be-efficiently-extracted-from-oil-and-gas-wastewater/

I'll email the board over the weekend myself but we need to ask how much lithium is in the water and if can be monetised.

Agree regarding TR1 notifications and suspect it's just PI fears. But if Flavourshaker's (and others) theory is right as fear is a powerful driver for traders, certainly have some cash ready. The low on the trendlines is 17.7p where I have more cash ready.

Remember we have a run-up to the reserves report after the next drill so we are not short on news this year. Far from it.

Flavourshaker, and all, today's decline aligns with the concerns in the markets about tomorrow's Bank of England (BOE) announcement on base rates, where potential increases could result in the devaluation of long-term revenues.

I think some PI's are thinking that exercising a warrant means selling all outstanding warrants into the market. This is NOT the case.

The Company would expect that all warrants will be exercised by the holders, as there is an estimate of another £4.6 million of income in 2023 from the exercise of the remaining outstanding warrants. The terms and conditions of the warrants do not appear to pose any restrictions on exercising the warrants, except for the requirement that any holder wishing to exercise their warrants into new Common Shares can only do so in a way that would result in them holding, together with any other Common Shares held, less than 10% of the issued share capital of the Company.

So, it is likely that the Company anticipates all holders to exercise their warrants, and any potential issues would arise only for those holders who would exceed the 10% ownership threshold upon exercising their warrants. *These holders would be required to sell some of the shares they acquire through exercising to ensure compliance with the ownership restriction.*

So there is nothing to worry about. Macy's interview did not help.

Yes specifically Montara is accident prone. Time may well prove this one is resolved quickly.

I've added back into JSE. Valuation looks really good today but *extremely low* if Motera is fixed. It's a gamble for 2024.

Great work Rob. Some say we are on 3000bopd but I have 2900bopd, but CN-3 will take us over 3000. And then Arrow is planning to complete a new reserve report... how long do you think this will take and will we get it after the warrants. These reports take a significant amount of time.

There is no other stock with level of upside. The risk is low as long as no one gets taken hostage.

This is quite a significant email that here and there received and posted on ADVFN. He wrote and hope he does not mind me posting here...

I got something pretty similar EHL:

'We are extremely excited that CN-2 is producing from the Ubaque. The potential reserves in the Ubaque could be massive.

C7 and the Gacheta still are targets for future wells and recompletions, but our focus in now on the Ubaque because of the reserve potential.

We are not concerned with the C7 having water. RCE-1 produced water right away and it has been a great well.

The potential for blending Ubaque with C7 oil exists and we are looking into the economics. The price we are getting now for the Ubaque is excellent with only a $8.99 logistics fee (transport and quality differential combined)."

It's more or less how I saw it . Looks to me that some retail have got hung up on the C7 sands having a water cut yet all the RCE wells have water cuts of different levels . Water is part of this basin, it is helpful. It drives the oil out of the ground. Daft sell off today. I've topped up.

(here and there)

Clearly, AXL is not attractive for traders wanting a quick day trade. Equally some new investors want to know if this can go any lower. I believe a buyer is found at 20-22p but have plenty of dry powder. I pledged £20,000 for anything at 17p.

Agree with the valuations but AXL has as much chance of the buyer being The Greta Thunberg Foundation than Canacol.

All these companies get to 20,000 bopd then they find it incredibly hard to grow from there and mistakes are likely to happen.