Member Info for Mr.Flibbles

(Rolls eyes)

After thoroughly reviewing the Canacol website, my conviction regarding Canacol's interest in AXL has only grown stronger. With the current oil and gas mix and given the outside potential of Gacheta, AXL appears significantly less appealing to Canacol. They would be interested if the gas mix was much higher. 100% CCanacol would be supportive of a sale at a premium.

I don't think AXL would be attractive to Canacol who focuses on natural gas in the energy transition.

AdaWells the trades are not misrepresented, its just a guess by this website and any other website.

Ezhik don't forget the risk-free rate has been going up and this impacts all boats from typical oil companies who have yield like bonds to long-duration stocks like AXL to tech stocks as well as the warrant issue.

I have added 24,272 shares to bring by average up for 17p to something a little higher. (there could always be an upside surprise despite the predictable nature I mentioned, and if it is a downside surprise then we only need to wait for the next drill).

Guys the predictable and high-CoS of these wells mean that a large degree of the upside is always factored into the share price. It is possible but unlikely CN2 will fail and if it does its not as bad as you think because these come cheap and fast. Look at the longer-term trend lines and you can see this behaviour and then combine it with oil forecasts. Regional politics is always a possibility in every country (other than the US) so this should be taken into consideration, however the best strategy for AXL is to buy and hold for a year or two.

I always find it odd why AXL release news at 7:00 am when those markets across the pond have not opened yet.

Today is a bad day for the markets. The market may get a bounce tomorrow and if not Monday but what I do know is that Friday is always the best day for good news as it allows new and current investors to read about it over the weekend. This is when many people like me have a good read and decide what to invest in (or sell).

Buybacks make total sense right now.

I mean the fall in gas prices was predictable. When stuff goes parabolic it always means reverts and overshoots to the downside. It always does. Every time. So the forecast modals they use do not take into consideration parabolic moves.

Oh and the TAX losses had been done with, what was the CFO smoking and no wounder is was pushed out.

No wonder the SP fell today again, I've just seen this video and am staggered by the stupidity. My drip feed had taken in the account of the fall in prices since January so WTF!

What is going on with PTAL as it should really be 41-46p. Nothing on the geo-political radar.

Last month some more cash was added for our growth with 3,600,000 warrants taken up leaving a staggering 51,964,455 warrants outstanding worth £10m to the holders. AXL will never be short of working capital!

I should emphasise that the crud valuation model is based on forward production so a higher P/E than typical oil companies that tend to be value stocks with low multiples. As pointed on on the other forum CN-2 should get bod over 3000 this week so in the near term 5000 is likely than not so it should get priced in at 50p. When you get to 6 digital bopd numbers it then gets harder to grow as companies often pay out silly dividend commitments and engage in debt M&A but we don't need to worry about that. My eyes simply remain on geo-politics in the region and I trust the company to grow.

Similar jurisdiction is my other direct cheap stock but how does it compare to AXL.

Presuming AXL hits a target of 5000 bopd and we proportionally downgrade PTAL from 21000bopd to 5000bopd, that has a rough EV of £336m. Yes PTAL has a large resource but these things com in time. Back to the point.... £336m divide by 4.2 = a market cap of £81m.

PTAL is ridiculously cheap it wont stay like that unless something bad happens, but we come in at £51m and even less on an EV basis. Maly's valuation of AXL is close. 42p plus forward earnings growth for what is a scalable fast growing company should actually demand a PREMIUM vs these dividend-paying cash cows so 50p is absolutely fair at 5000 and in the future 10,000 would easily be 100p. Yes the reserves are not comparable and I own PTAL too but AXL could get there in time.

(see what I did with the title)

The Kazakh Prime Minister, Alikhan Smailov, also signed bilateral agreements with Azerbaijan and Georgia to increase connectivity and trade, including increasing flight frequencies and capacity at the Batumi oil terminal.

(yes to buyback from me at these levels)

This is being played upward now. Would be happy to participate and sell some if it was not for the share price being too low in a no mans land. I need 17-18p to buy and erm 40-60p to sell :-D

Hmmm, much more liquidity today.

Yeah, some numpty trader checking out the liquidity as big buys and sell go negotiated. I should not have looked at the trades. My trading days are over. Just finding stocks and trusts growing fast enough on an upward trend is good enough for me to just switch off.