Member Info for mountainous

Mooky is still there and holding. Jangho remains silent and we haven’t heard any activity from them. If something very bad was going to happen, I strongly believe Mooky would have acted here, or at least lowered his position if the news was totally bad and meant potential bankruptcy for the company. The fact that he isn’t shows that cineworld isn’t in total trouble. Yes, the news on 12/08 may not be sunshine and roses, but I don’t think it will be anything completely dreadful.

astro999 - damn, I think it’s 100% possible to recover that one. My avg is currently at 89, and I’m waiting patiently to average down, I just want to see the end point of this downfall first

JG68 - what’s your avg if you don’t mind me asking?

Thanks for sharing your experience, however the figures from BW suggest the highest box office earnings since the start of the pandemic.

What you saw may have likely just been the area and the time of day you went, there’s a lot of variables that come into play.

latpulldown - totally correct. I think one of the worst things about this forum is the prevalence of excessively negative opinions and the spreading of FUD. If we decide to not give them grounds for growth like you describe, I think this forum would become a much better place :)

Comparing the high street and the multinational company that cineworld is, is a completely unbalanced comparison. For the entirety of 2020, cineworld only closed 20 sites across the world according to it’s annual report. Cineworld is also essential to the movie industry.

Quite a lot of talk about the spreading of FUD by hedge funds last night.

To be perfectly honest, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if that is what HF’s are doing. Many inexperienced traders look to the internet to see what others say about the stock, as they don’t understand documents such as balance sheets and cash flows etc, things that form a component of researching a stock, so forums like this are optimum environments for HF’s who want to deteriorate investor sentiment.

I think this should serve as the perfect reminder that nothing beats doing your own research. Whether the accusations of people from HF’s spreading FUD are true or not, it is when you do your own research that you can stand firm behind your investment during times like this where the stock is dropping 6-8% on a daily basis.

I’ve been following this forum for quite some time, but I decided to make an account today to get in on the action :)

I’d encourage those who are concerned about very sudden bad news coming that they need to look at the big picture and avoid overthinking it. People are saying that the Cineplex dispute may be driving the price down, or that the company will need to increase their debt position to survive etc etc. If that was the case, then wouldn’t we see Mooky and other people inside the company perhaps trimming their positions? We would see something from Jangho at the minimum with their size of position.

With regard to the shorters, I don’t know if we can fully trust what we can see online anymore. ShortTracker is showing 7.44% SI, Cineworld IR informed us yesterday that the stock on loan is approx 13%, that’s almost double.
Remember that shorters do not need to disclose positions below 0.5%, and that if there’s one thing that shorters are incredible at, it’s working in partnership. You take 10 hedge funds and tell them to short for you and you take the liability, and you add 5% to the SI discreetly. I’m a strong believer that they’re the ones still dragging down this price, using that method or some other way. From that, retail and private investors are running fast and far from CINE, which just facilitates the HF’s efforts.

With regard to the lack of an RNS, I don’t think it’s a good idea to evaluate the condition of a company depending on whether they release an RNS or not. Cineworld IR is willing to speak to simple retail investors like us as we’ve seen yesterday (not all companies do that), so you can only imagine the level of contact they have with their large institutional investors. Let’s face the facts, it’s those large holders that really matter to them, so RNS is de facto irrelevant and is simply a sentimental object. It’s there to make retail feel good about themselves; big money are already re-assured. If they weren’t, the sp would be significantly lower than it is now. Cineworld institutional investors appear to be very flexible with the company, I remember them approving a debt facility from their own pockets sometime during the pandemic. If they could do it then, then I see no reason why they wouldn’t do it now that the company is already recovering well, as long as it isn’t due to financial mismanagement within the company, which I can’t see Mooky doing after building CINE into the company it is today.

That’s my 2 cents on the matter.

Silver 420 - I don’t think there’s anything super secretive about the future of this company. Here’s what happening right now; cineworld is open and is generating revenue. Simple as that. If Jangho is selling, I personally think they’re making a wrong decision. Latest data I can see is that they’ve increased their position back in April, there may be more fresh data that I haven’t had a look at, but that’s what I’ve seen. If Jangho were increasing in April when everything was closed, then why would they be offloading now that the tills are ringing and the company is on their way to recovery?

Funinvestor - your comment regarding the shorting at 15-20p makes sense, but I think it’s also good to remember that cineworld was the UK’s more shorted stock even before the pandemic existed (to the best of my knowledge). Those who were short likely didn’t exit at circa 20p because they were fully expectant of bankruptcy, and because of that expectation they ramped up their short positions in anticipation of that bankruptcy. As we know, bankruptcy never came and cineworld is still very much alive.

I also think that the shorters saw what was happening with the stock at 110-120p and thought the whole thing was overvalued and still kept their expectations of bankruptcy (bearing in mind that cineworld was still fully shut when the sp was around 120p), so once they got their chance at the FY results, they grabbed it and have been destroying the stock since, as you can see from the constant decline.

Just my personal theory on that matter

bullsbears- that’s not even a completely uneducated guess. The sp is a total bargain right now imo

I don’t think there’s any way cineworld is going to go bankrupt. They had some liquidity even during the pandemic, and they didn’t even need to dilute their stock, that’s quite an amazing achievement for a company who’s sites were generating no revenue for the majority of the year. I can only imagine that cineworld’s financial position is much stronger now that they’ve been opened for about 3 months.

My personal theory with the shorters is that they’ve realised that they’ve made a wrong decision to short cineworld. During the thick of the pandemic, their short made some sense, and it was working until it shot up from circa 20p. So now, I think they’re trying to degrade the price as much as possible so they can exit before 12th August. A hedge fund slightly reduced their short position yesterday. Every reasonable person can expect that cineworld’s interim results will be an improvement from their mid-pandemic results.

Reason behind why Cineworld doesn’t look like a particularly tempting takeover is because of its debt probably. The cinema business is massive and Hollywood wouldn’t be the same without it, and it’s very essential to revenue for movie studios, so I don’t see cineworld going anywhere, especially now that covid restrictions are coming to a close and the company is recovering.

CINE was consistently profitable pre-pandemic, so the company looks admirable in my honest opinion. But nobody wants to buy a company with a lot of debt that doesn’t have a completely clear path to recovery yet.

I believe with time cineworld will recover well, and that it is possible that someone may come forward to buy it. Even if nobody does, the sp will rise regardless imo

Faulkes I don’t think the cinemas were even that full pre-covid, so unless if there are some massive numbers suddenly I don’t see that being an issue.

The only time I can see that becoming a concern is with as big movie coming out or a special screening.