Member Info for moonparty

If it helps, virtually everything down today - tariff angst

Exactly chester, do you believe a bb poster who clearly has an undisclosed agenda, or the people who have invested millions in the business?

Scinv - a few points you made that I just don't understand

1.

You seem to be implying the only reason iscib1+ exists is a cynical ploy to get more patent life - that's not how scientists operate, and certainly not how LD operates.

2.

You are saying that some of the technology in scib1 was not scancells idea - surely that's irrelevant (as well as obvious) as the genius and protection is about the combination of technologies and techniques.

3.

I think you are saying iscib1+ is worthless if it only performs as well as scib1 in hla-2 - that's simply not true, if it works as well and also covers non-hla-2 then it's clearly better. If you are arguing that for the hla-2 population, someone could clone scib1 once it comes off patent and be cheaper, then yes, but they would first have to put it through phase 3 first, and despite other barriers to entry (e.g. expertise in manufacture). Also that's only 30-40% of the population, so clearly iScib1+ still has a massive market.

Drac, patents and orphan drug status are complex and different rules apply in different countries.

I'm no expert (and I don't believe others on this board are, however confident they sound), but an hours research tells me that Scancell will get a few good years of exclusivity on scib1, probably 7 - 10, maybe longer with good lawyers. Certainly enough to develop the replacement that will work even better.

Don't believe the unverified nonsense, do your own research!

The gradual decline since the summer is almost entirely down to Calculus selling, and they must be down to dregs by now bearing in mind they had 27 million in October and the selling has been relentless.

As discussed many times here, Calculus have to sell to raise cash for those who exit the funds, and Scancell is a (relatively) liquid asset that they can still claim as a win as I believe they bought the majority of their holding under 10p (possibly as low as 5p, can't be bothered to check right now).

So not a reflection on Scancell despite what certain, shall we say less than honest, posters would have you believe.

Why else would so much good news and massive potential be met with sp decline?

It's straightforward - it's a small illiquid company, there is a big forced seller - it happens a lot on AIM. If you can take advantage of the value imbalance, there could be a very big reward.

All above my reasoned opinion only, nobody knows the truth 100% in these situations.

Looks like auto-generated twaddle

Having a reasonable grasp of what AI is and what it is capable of (I work in the big data space), I can't see that it is going to be massively transformative for drug discovery / testing / trials.

It certainly has the potential to make some aspects of the process more efficient and less error prone, but the basic process of drug discovery / lab trials / clinical trials will not alter - humans and animals are way too complex systems to be 'solved' by AI (in it's current form at least).

Not that that will stop plenty of biotech's announcing AI programmes to bolster their image and coffers!

I've wondered about that, why Calculus don't just sell to a keen investor (recent placing oversubscribed so there must be a few).

I think it's about reputation - if they sold out to another investor direct, the SP would probably bounce up. Drip feeding to the market depresses the SP and allows them to show their average exit price is higher than the current price, once they are done.

It's always about politics, but one thing is for sure - when they are finished (which must be soon) there will be nothing to hold us back on the next positive rns.

15-Jan-25 08:51:48 9.55 6,329,000 Unknown* 9.40 10.00 604.42k

Could be the last of the Calculus overhang? Price action would suggest it is.

Paul, it's almost certainly Calculus selling because they are a large holder and have been confirmed via RNS as selling as recently as last October when they fell below the 3% threshold, so no further notifications are required.

No other major shareholders are known to be currently selling.

Occams Razor and all that.

Miavoce, agree 100%

Yes, there is the AIM effect, but most of the SP issues are Calculus selling into any rise. They will run out of shares eventually. It's nothing to do with the directors being deficient - they are doing a great job of developing the outstanding science and getting through the trials, navigating all the many pitfalls, most of which we don't even realise or hear about.

And before anyone asks, no we don't know 100% that its Calculus, but c'mon, it's Calculus.

As of October 2024 they held 2.94% - 27,372,187 shares.

How many have they sold since then? Can't be many left now. Their target holding isn't necessarily zero either.

Let's hope that's the end of the calculus overhang

Morning all,

Well, it all got a bit interesting here after the placing, not a pleasant BB at all.

The placing was disappointing, but the reasoning was sound business - the trial results, as ever, are taking a little longer to be ready for serious partnership negotiations to start.

It is always psychologically difficult when timescales increase for an investment, and that is the underlying reason for the mood malaise here - the placing was a direct result of this.

Professional posters are using this to their advantage to chip away at your psyche, for their own gain.

I think it's useful to look beyond the toxic masculinity displayed on these boards and remember that Scancell still has the most incredible prospects relative to its market cap.

- Clinically proven (almost) advanced melanoma treatment (Scib1) that is safe and massively outperforms anything else that is on the market or in clinical trials. It is also cheap to produce, stored and administer, and has virtually no side effects.

This alone worth $ billions.

- Existing deals with Genmab could net up to $1.3 billion, PLUS royalties.

A slow burner and we are talking several years out, but positive progress on this would increase the likelihood of the max payout and is, IMO, worth at least the current market cap on it's own.

- Modi1 showing promise in the clinic, and could easily perform as well on its targets as Scib1 does on melanoma. Update due soon but early snippets very promising.

This alone, if update is positive. could be worth a multiple of Scib1/iScib1+ so $ billions ++.

- Possibility that iScib1+ will be more effective and cover 100% of the population (rather than the 40% for Scib1).

- Both Scib1 and Modi1 are the first candidates from a platform that can produce many more, so longer term, the $ billions can be repeated, and the chance of future success massively increased id the first candidates show success.

SO, even more $ billions.

- Avidimab - already proven in the clinic, in the SCOV1/SCOV2 trials. Something of an unknown quantity, the results of iScib1+ trial will help with this, but could be very lucrative indeed.

- GlyMab - deals already done with Genmab, more will be coming.

- Other antibodies - looking very promising especially SC134 for small cell lung cancer which has shown very good pre-clinical results.

If you can ignore the noise and the SP volatility, there is a lot to be bullish about, and much of it will be progressed to inflection points next year. Not long to wait.

Think you're looking at last trade price, not quoted sp drac?

Quoted sp unchanged.

That is, if the SP is less than the equivalent of $5 if/when Scancell move to Nasdaq!

On AIM, share consolidation is usually done as a smoke and mirrors trick where a companies SP declines to tiny amounts and/or the number of shares in issue is multiple billions - very common in oil/gas/mining exploration stocks. Not really relevant for Scancell.

However, were SCLP to list on the Nasdaq, they would have to consolidate, as there is a minimum share price on listing from memory this is $5.

If you want to see the quality (or rather absence of) the company that put out this article take a look at staff reviews on glassdoor.com:

https://www.glassdoor.co.uk/Reviews/Employee-Review-OncologyPipeline-RVW77781939.htm

Cleanerworld, best ignored, looks like a journalist trying to get noticed rather than writing objective research based pieces.

*scib

Somehow my phone translated scib to action 🤔