Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
I have always though Scancell, and in particular Moditope, was potentially worth many billions. It's why I'm heavily invested here, and along with many others who post here, I have amassed a 7 figure holding, and any sp north of 50p is gonna be life changing.
I hope I can see through my own confirmation bias, but I sense a shift in attitude both wiithin Scancell and towards Scancell.
Where talk of £8 a share was ridiculed, it is now being taken seriously, and there has even been mention of £80 a share.
These kind of possible sp multiples are why most of us are invested. If Moditope works, as more knowledgeable posters have explained, we have, dare I say it, a whole new industry, that Scancell own the IP too. What price? £8 looking on the low side IMO.
Hope you are all enjoying the weekend and the fireworks.
"Buy the rumour, sell the fact?"
Yeah I guess, but a little different in this case - the fact has been in doubt for 12 years :)
And the fact is almost incalculable for both the company and the entire oncology industry.
Human nature is very strange.
When news is theoretical, the sp reaction can be massive - it's easier to believe something will happen if it is at some undetermined point in the future.
When it is real (which it is rapidly becoming at this stage), the sp reaction is more muted.
Human psychology at play - when it actually happens, it is a major paradigm shift and the initial reaction is disbelief. People making caveats and assumptions about it, often in contradiction to the evidence.
It takes time to adjust to change - a quick google tells me it takes 66 days to fully accept a new reality.
So maybe, somewhere between £2 and £24 in 66 days ?
Nice post RR which I largely agree with.
However, I disagree with this:
"No one on this board supports a valuation of £8 let alone £12. A few days ago I specifically asks if anyone did support £8 and absolutely no one did."
Silence does not equate to a No vote - a lot of people simply won't respond, especially to the more aggressive posts, and/or just miss posts in the noise.
I for one think £8 or higher is achievable, given success in all platforms, and assuming Scancell can remain an independent company for long enough. Serious danger of a take-out for less than that though.
Very reasonable post c18. I am a lot more optimistic however.
I think with what we know now, the current valuation should be closer to a billion than zero, so definitely over £500M.
Not going to do a lengthy post on why, but todays news on tumour shrinkage is massive (though subject to the usual Scancell obfuscation) and just the moditope news I have been waiting for.
I have added to my holding today, and will continue to add as funds become available at this price.
GLA
Bermuda, I think it is the first to be assessed from cohort 2 with the partial response, as the patient from the full does has not yet been assessed, as only just been fully dosed ?
"All three patients in Cohort 2 have successfully received two doses and the injections were well tolerated with no safety concerns. Encouragingly, all three patients showed a delayed type hypersensitivity response to the vaccine, which is indicative of a T cell response, and the first patient to be assessed has shown a partial tumour response at first radiological reassessment"
The deal just signed could net Scancell over £600M plus whatever the upfront fee is plus ongoing royalties on sales for ever!
And that is just one fifth of one platform out of 4.
So 20% of one quarter, which is just 5% of the whole company.
And there is a very strong argument that the other 3 platforms are not equal - certainly Moditope, if/when proven, will massively eclipse the other platforms.
And, the one fifth figure is probably too high, as the platform will produce many more Mab's than the current 5.
So, £600M (plus royalties) for an extremely small part of the whole - let's say 5%, though that is probably too big.
Makes the whole "worth' £12 billion.
It might be quite straightforward - Calculus have already notified of a reduced holding. They could still be selling - who knows why when they have held for so long, possibly they need the money to support high withdrawals? I've not researched them - are they selling other holdings too?
They have been long term supporters of Scancell so hopefully they will have reached their target by now with the liquidity of the last 2 days.
Not a big supporter of the 'soemone is controlling the price' conspiracy theories. Especially when there is a much more obvious reason.
Validation of science by publication and peer review: CHECK
Validation of science pre-clinical lab work: CHECK
Protection of IP worldwide: CHECK
Validation of science in human trials: Partial check for original SCIB1 trial (1 out of 4 platforms). Human trials for others in progress
Validation of serious commercial interest: CHECK
Validation of Scancell's ability to pull off a deal: CHECK
Today's news has provided the last 2 in the list. We currently have a full house - the royal flush will come with the trial results. Very exciting times, and I'm personally holding our for an SP in the pounds, not pence :)
I'm very much in this camp when it comes to trials. No news until protocol-defined inflection points is what we want. Any news prior to this is likely to be bad, of the patient adverse reaction kind.
Would be nice to have some good news form Mabs and Glycans in the meantime though...
Could possibly be a sell, if an MM has a background order for, say, 'buy me X million shares at an average of 15p or less'.
The said MM might bid strongly for a large number of shares?
Whatever the reason, a large transaction above the current offer is very positive.