Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
From Lindy, "The information extracted from this study will be invaluable in defining the patient population that will benefit the most from our cancer vaccine, Modi-1."
Benefit the most - i.e. all will benefit. For someone who is so careful with her choice of words, this is quite something.
The first trial of a brand new cancer drug in humans has proven, so far, to be:
Safe
Effective (44% disease control rate) in ovarian cancer
Some effect in other indications, yet to be confirmed exactly, but at least one tumour shrinkage.
So, overall, not as effective as some of the ambitious expectations of some holders.
But, let's actually analyse what we have:
There is no other treatment in late stage ovarian cancer that comes anywhere close to 44%, or that has no side effects. This alone should be massive.
Humans are different to mice, so we are not seeing exactly the same progress, but this a phase 1 trial, and the results are really quite remarkable for a novel compound.
A strong possibility is that many of the patients were so ill when signing up for Modi-1 - literally a last roll of the dice - that either
their immune system wasn't strong enough to benefit from Modi-1 alone, or
They simply did not have the strength / will to go on.
I hope this doesn't sound too heartless - I have witnessed this myself with both my parents passing in the last 3 years, and my Dad in particular was ill for so long (not cancer and not technically terminal) that he lost the will to live.
The devil will be in the detail, in terms of biopsy and scan results, and that detail will no doubt be pored over by potential partners.
In the meantime, the CI cohort should fair much better because my understanding is they will not be as ill as the mono-therapy cohort, and the CI 'taking the brakes off' the immune system will be a powerful combination with the Modi-1 vaccine encouraging the generation of killer cd4 t cells to target the tumor(s).
It's still very much all to play for, and as I've mentioned before, the genmab deal is worth double the current market cap ALONE. So you are basically getting modi-1 and the mod pipeline, scib1/iscib1 and the immunobody pipeline, avidimab and glymab for free. ALL of which are potential multi-billion pound assets.
I have been buying the last week. Buy when there's blood on the streets! I seriously think people selling now will be kicking themselves before the Autumn is here. Especially LTHs who know all about the science and know the characters that pop up here and manipulate sentiment.
Having said that, I agree with other posters that it is foolish to listen to anonymous advice from a BB - do your own research, ignore the noise and make up your own mind.
Emptyend, it's irrelevant to Scancell if there is a technical charge to P&L as they are are an early-mid stage bio. What matters is to incentivise the staff and this is what share options do.
I know it's a board decision but I'm sure LD had massive sway and it was probably (IMO) her suggestion or one she readily agreed to to help the company and send the right message to investors.
Genuinely don't understand how you can see this as a negative.
I and others posted yesterday that the sell off was panic selling - you can see the pattern of several trades at market size followed by a smaller number. That is a PI selling out all their shares.
Panic induced by silly comments on this and other boards? Or people who were expecting better news than we got? Who knows - psychology plays such a big part in peoples buy/sell decisions and it is not always very sensible. Vulpes/Redmile selling would be more controlled, and I am 99% certain it wasn't them. And 99% certain yesterday was herd-mentality panic selling.
"Its the equivalent of me missing my bonus targets for the year, and saying "well give me another three years, and maybe I will hit it".
Nonsense - LD could have taken the options and made a massive profit on them, but she chose to extend them instead.
Makes perfect sense to extend them, and is a very normal practice:
1. Means LD is still massively incentivised
2. Shows the company are not desperate for the money
Can't understand why anyone would think this is a bad ideas
Is just people who were expecting a better update selling out IMO.
Not sure how much better you can get than:
- 2 trials both going well and showing encouraging/promising efficacy
- adopting a more business-like approach (like we have all been asking for)
People are fickle, markets are fickle. There is no actual bad news or reason for the sell off.
You can tell people are selling our - lots of blocks of trades at market size = PI's doing lots of sells from there trading accounts until they have none left.
It should steadily recover once those who have panicked have left us.
Scib1 works
Modi-1 works
Doses / combination therapies may need tweaking, but the results are showing beyond reasonable doubt that they work. On people who have no other options.
A 44% chance of stable disease Vs a 100% chance of dieing are odds anyone would take. And these odds will likely get get much better with CI's - and the performance with CI's is key to early deals.
Scancell are poor at Comms and commercialisation. We know this. They know this. They are working on it.
What's important is that here is most definitely something to commercialise - in fact so many things that they have to prioritise which ones!
"Can not understand how a personalised vaccine can be rolled out in 100 hospitals in 12 weeks ?"
Simples, money and connections! When Modi proves itself in current trial, Scancell will be able to partner and get the same treatment.
All this publicity on cancer immunotherapy can only be positive for lil'ol Scancell.
I just hope the timing is right that they can use it to max effect.
Personalised treatment = 100K a pop minimum, and if ever on the NHS will consume scarce resources, both treatment budgets and staff time.
Modi = maybe a few thousand a pop? And simple injections.
We really are so very close...
Not modi-1 I'm afraid - mRna was mentioned a few times, and the patient said it was delivered through a canular.
Still fantastic news for the patient on the trial, and the Prof is very media-presentable. Let's hope his next interview IS on Modi-1, and he's allowed to explicitly say so.
I'm not convinced you can't convert options due to insider info rules, especially when they are in the money.
Converting the options to shares would be fine I think, but selling them (or indeed selling or buying any shares) would not be.
I'm ery relaxed about my Scancell investment. I do check the SP most days and obviously would rather see it higher, but:
Genmab deal worth up to $650M and market cap £100m - fantastic value on that alone.
Moditope - c'mon, worth billions, trial showing encouraging progress, no safety issues, several partial/stable disease from what we know. That is just amazing.
The rest - immunobody platform, scib1, covidity, mab"s, etc.. Each one potentially worth billions alone
Vagaries of AIM - the SP is very much dictated on the margins on tiny volume - it's like measuring the depth of the ocean on the shoreline. Volume is pitifully low the last few weeks.
Try building a holding in the millions (as many of us have) now before news, it would be impossible without raising the price significantly , and even then would take time, which you may not have before it's too late to get in below 50p / £1.
All IMHO as a proud flag waving happy clappy club member.
"Scancell will have to cover that liability which unless they commercialise will be another short/medium term worry."
You're talking about the CLN's right? There is no liability.
The repayment is in shares not cash. No worry at all.
We don't know what's happening behind closed doors, but we can make one assertion:
There is no way LD would be drawing attention to Scancell (in the Observer yesterday) if she was not aware that there is good stuff going on and good news coming soon.
I'm thinking the Observer piece might be timed to get people watching when news comes.
Makes sense - spark investors interest in a prominent broadsheet article at the weekend, then release some good news whilst everyone is looking.