Member Info for Monkshood

I cashed in a couple of small caps that have been holding up well and rightly or wrongly added more here.
It is worth having a look at Rotala's (Rol) results which are out today for a good overview of the uk bus situation re-grants and trade.

Point taken, but that is before Gates wanted to buy Mologic as a social enterprise for the detection of tropical diseases.

Surprised that no one has mentioned that Avacta has previously produced a test for zika in 2016 ;0)

https://avacta.com/avacta-rapidly-generates-affimer-binders-zika-virus-diagnostics/

Apologies if ready posted but just seen this - From the FT -

Mologic will be turned into a social enterprise for testing tropical diseases

Philanthropists George Soros and Bill Gates are part of a consortium buying a UK developer of testing technology they plan to transform into a social enterprise that can quickly and cheaply diagnose tropical diseases in low-income countries.

The group, led by the Soros Economic Development Fund, will invest at least £30m in Mologic, a developer of lateral flow tests including those used for Covid-19.

In an unusual deal, Mologic, a for-profit company based in Bedford in south-east England, has been bought so it can focus on the low-cost manufacture of diagnostics for tropical diseases such as dengue and river blindness. 

We have all done that HarChris- my biggest mistake last year was selling a large holding watr for a 10% profit, if I had held it would have been 300- 400% up.
Although nothing is certain, there is a reasonable probability that nex could get back to 400 over the next couple of years which is a return I would be happy with.

Falk, I will let those who were invested here at the time judge that one.

I remember you kept saying that when they were 110p

There was this article in The Times which may in part explain the price drop-
'The City’s big investors once again rushed to ditch their travel and leisure shares over lingering concerns about the potential effect of the Delta variant.
The talk in the Square Mile was that investors don’t want to risk being stuck in those two sectors during the summer lull should governments decide to reverse ferret and bring back some restrictions in response to the Delta variant.
From July to September, trading volumes tend to drop, which can make it tricky to reduce big positions without taking a hit. “People are freaking out about the Delta variant,” said one City trader. “Hedge funds . . . don’t want exposure to anything. We’re expecting quite a low-volume summer so they’re selling when they can rather than when they have to.”

As had been flagged they have continued to trade well into the last quarter.
Profit before tax for the full year will be approximately £158m, slightly ahead of analyst forecasts (These were the ones after the update in May £149-153M).
Net cash is now £129M - when you consider this time last year they had a net debt of £30M it has been a great performance for the year. It gives them the resources to invest and drive the business forward in the future as can already be seen in their investment in additional distribution facilities.

I am not invested here but I came across this in the Warwick modelling data which was released yesterday, seem relevant.

In reference to Delta and the S gene dropout .
'Unfortunately, not all NHS regions use the TaqPath system – the South West region being the most notable exception – so
there is considerable uncertainty in the ratio of Delta to Alpha in some regions'

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001172/S1302_University_of_Warwick_Road_Map_Scenarios_and_Sensitivity_Step_4.2__6_July_2021__1_.pdf

Seems to be heading in the right direction.
Revenues look to be ahead of Edison's projections in March (2021 e - £61M). Given the lock downs and disruptions that were still occurring in the first half, if they have a reasonable second half they have the potential to reach Edison's 2022 estimate of £68M a year early.

If the results at the end of the month come in ahead of expectations then it may help.
Other than this I believe it will require covid cases/hospitalisations here to turn the corner. Whilst we are only a part of nex's market I do believe that the UK has now become the test case for vaccination / opening /herd immunity. If things do not get too bad here then there will be confidence that the trend can be followed in our other markets as they increase the numbers vaccinated.
My personal take from looking at the mutations and studies of variant frequency in India in early April was that Delta would become the most common variant but the vaccine would still be reasonably effective. It is why I stuck with nex (and some other recovery stocks), in retrospect I should have realised that even if it was not a game changer in the longer term, there would be a short term impact on the share price, even if the impact on revenues was minimal.
Beyond missing the opportunity for some shorter term trading profits, I am still confident that this is one of the safer recovery stocks to be invested in.

New York Times-
‘The Centre for Disease Control and Prevention urged schools on Friday to fully reopen in the fall, even if they cannot take all of the steps the agency recommends to curb the spread of the coronavirus — a major turn in a public health crisis in which childhood education has long been a political flash point.’
‘Virtually all of the nation’s major school districts plan to return to regular in-person instruction in the fall, and some are still trying to persuade hesitant parents to send their children back. Others are not giving parents a choice; New York City will not offer a remote learning option in the fall.’

Accepted. I thought that you were targeting PAH00 and myself with the comment which I thought was rather uncalled for.

@sleepydave-So if we try and discuss the science we are 'morons' but it is OK that there are hundreds of post a day on this BB, most of which are drivel, ramping or deramping the share based on endless speculation - such as 'Big Pharma I suspect will out of the blue at a time no one expects start a bidding war for us.'
Clearly I like the company, otherwise I would not be invested in it, but it does not mean I am blind to the risks, just because AS is excited by something does not make it a guaranteed success - remember the covid Mass Spec assay he was excited about?
Although I have had a couple of cancer papers published it was not my main research area, so I find it useful to hear others opinion about the science even if you do not.

They are on a role(even if the sp is not!)
Lisle, IL and South Park, PA – Matthews Bus Company (owned by National Express, LLC), a leader in student transportation, will bring its customer acclaimed bus fleet to the South Park School District in South Park, Pennsylvania to service the district’s students for the next five years beginning in August 2021. This new partnership further expands National Express’ ever-growing footprint in Pennsylvania and follows a recent announcement by National Express’ Durham School Services and their new partnership with Reading School District located in Reading, PA

I will vouch for what Lewbo said, I picked some up at 9.2 as well.
First top up since I paid 3.05

Another win (from BCIU).
Durham School Services and Reading School District in Pennsylvania to Start New Five-Year Partnership in August 2021
By Adam Bogdan on Jul 08, 2021 12:02 pm
Lisle, IL and Reading, PA – Durham School Services, a leader in student transportation, has formed a new partnership with Reading School District in Reading, PA. Durham will begin serving the students of Reading School District at the end of August of this year. A total of 28 routes will be operated by Durham School ...

The last full year divi was 14.6p, if you add this on it would still only take us up to 280p so it must be more than this.

I was concerned that the price would drop in September when the scheme ended - it seems rather odd that it drops on the news the support is continuing .
Is it interpreted negatively because they will still need support-or because it may limit the ability to pay divi's - or is there some other aspect to this I am missing?