Member Info for Monkshood

Not mine unfortunately.
I am however very confident in nex, it is now my largest holding as I believe it has minimal relative risk for a potential 30%+ rise over the next year or two. It survived the worst last year (all be it with a 20% dilution) because at the end of the day governments cannot allow it to go bust.
All of its key markets are looking good with reasonable vaccination rates. Vaccination in kids will ensure the school buses are not impacted in the US too much next year. Watching the buses that go through our village shows that the young and elderly are back to using them. UK coaches picked up quickly last summer and there is no reason not to expect the same going forward. Their NETS business (coach hire) looks to be going very well.
US shuttle is already back to 75% pre covid. First Student uncertainty will also benefit nex. Spanish long routes are now running again.
The contracts in Lisbon and Porto kick in soon. They are also bidding for new contracts in Santiago and a couple of other places. The former is on hold at the moment after the 'Chilean Transport ministry was asked over 2300 written questions from potential bidders' (bnmericas). Morocco is going well and still expanding with more buses to be delivered later this year.
Headwinds will be fx, interest rates (if they do rise), driver wages (with a shortage of drivers in the US) also possibly fuel prices (although they generally hedge one year ahead except for Alsa Morocco). These are fairly standard problems for the company though.
Public transport in urban areas has to increase as there is not the road and parking capacity in most places and there is a clear drive for greener transport measures. Likewise there will always be a need for public transport for kids and the elderly outside of urban areas as they have little other option. Provided that the new CEO manages to run nex as competently as Dean Finch appeared to do then this should also be a good long term holding beyond just the shorter term bounce back from covid.

It is to allow CDF1 to average down ;o)

'The local COVID-19 mitigation plan will expire June 1, allowing for the return of pre-pandemic guidelines that lift restrictions involving capacity limits, large gatherings and more, the Clark County Commission decided today.'
I did wonder if they would as they had set a criteria of 60% vaccination (first jab, for anyone over 16's ) as a threshold and it was not clear if this had been achieved. But irrespective of this It looks like Clark County are going to allow 100% occupancy to bring them in line with almost every other county in Nevada. The increase form the current 80% occupancy will mean another step up for Immo's revenues at this venue.

There is a bit more on this in the Times today-
'Airbus has told its suppliers to prepare for record levels of production of its A320 family of single-aisle passenger jets within two years as it gears up for a recovery in short-haul flying.
Production of its A350 long-haul aircraft, which are powered by Rolls-Royce engines built in Derby, is also increasing, though at a slower rate.'
'Shares of companies involved in that supply chain took off, albeit from very depressed levels'
Hopefully this will trickle down to vel over the coming weeks.

'Airbus heralded a recovery in the aviation industry by lifting its production targets.'
The aerospace company said that it was embarking on a rapid acceleration in the production of its A320 single-aisle passenger.
I think that vel had contracts renewed for work for the A320 last year.

'At what point will someone (HIK & several others) decide we are worth acquiring for our legacy'
About four weeks after you said this MrBB!

I agree, we have it sitting in my wife's account, she just wanted something that payed a good div with the chance of some growth and was in a different space to some of her other divi payers. I guess that is the case for many holders.
If AIF want a Global ESG trust then they should launch one rather than trying to morph this into one.
I think we will be voting against continuation.

This would probably fall to Richard Penny at Crux- not sure if that is a great endorsement though! His performance in his last few years with the Alpha Trust at L&G before moving to Crux was not very good.

We have finally got a Tr1, this one is from Crux although the way this has continued to rise there must be others out there building a holding.

'FirstGroup’s largest shareholder has threatened to take legal action if the UK-listed transport operator does not renegotiate, delay or call off the £3.3bn sale of its US bus business to Swedish private equity group EQT.'
'Schroders, the second-largest shareholder, and a host of smaller investors have joined the fund in opposing the deal.'

It is hard to see how the problems at FirstGroup cannot but play into nex's hands . Would you want to place a 5 or 10 year contract with Firststudent when you do not know who will own the company in a years time? I cannot imagine the uncertainty helps with recruitment of drivers etc either.

Sure RD, I will look out for it.

I was expecting a strong bounce back but this is really good.
Total sales increased by 59% on a 2-year basis against the equivalent period in FY19
'the Board expects full year profit before tax (PBT) will be significantly ahead of the latest range of analysts' expectations[2]. Whilst there is still some uncertainty in the short-term outlook, we anticipate FY21 PBT will be in excess of £148m.'

It also has the 1.3m contract from Feb and a 3.7M from the March contract
I am in now, I think this has lots of long term potential especially once they get going in the US.

The Fairbanks contract is for 10 years

From School Bus Fleet 10th May- (not exactly riveting reading but good for US school buses info)
Durham School Services was selected by the Utica (N.Y.) City School District to transport about 10,000 students for the district to and from school each day for the next five years.
Beginning in July, the school bus company will operate 120 routes that serve the district's students, according to a news release from Durham.
In the coming months, Durham will begin to hire and train more than 210 team members to help ensure the smooth transition of operations before the start of school.
This looks to be a similar sized contract to the one they won for Fairbanks, Alaska in February this year.

It seems a huge shift from what the trust is now to a global ESG equity trust with a 3.5% divi.

28jaczar01/ Antha - You two were spot on with your takeover comments.

You timed that well Herman. This had moved to the top of my small cap buy list but I was just waiting to free some cash elsewhere.

Bloomberg-Giant Plague of Mice Forces Australia to Turn to Banned Poison
'Australia is looking to deploy normally outlawed high-grade poison to fight millions of mice, as farmers struggle to protect their crops from the worst rodent invasion in decades.'There should not be any shortage of work in Australia for RTO.

Nothing much at the AGM other than the Chairman defending exec pay packages....
One interesting table was presented illustrating the return of revenues-
2020
Q2-50% (down)
Q3-37%
Q4-32%
2021
Q1-25%
When you consider what Q1 was like with lockdowns in the UK, Spain, and to a lesser extent Morocco and the US it will be interesting to see what Q2/3/4 brings. As others have said it is hard to see that this will still be hovering around 300p later in the year.