Member Info for Monkshood

'National Express bookings for travel in the week from Monday, April 12, when non-essential retail, outdoor attractions and self-contained accommodation reopened, have increased by 37% compared to the previous week.'
Add in the next step from Monday 17th, then removal of social distancing in June and it is clear that much of the demand will very quickly recover.

That should be the worse behind them now in all of their key markets so they should see revenues start to return to nearer 2019 levels going forward.

Interims and AGM tomorrow, going to be interesting to see what they have to say.
Vaccine cleared for teenagers.
From Bloomberg-
'The Pfizer and BioNTech shot was cleared for use by younger teens in the U.S., paving the way for mass vaccinations before the start of summer camps.'
The buses for the summer camps are a good source of extra income for nex.

Why the return of interregional travel in Spain matters-
From last years regional report- 'Overall for the year, passenger journeys were down by 44% in Spain, and were particularly badly impacted by restricted inter-regional travel on our long haul routes'

Spain-another of their key markets starting to return to normality.
'Restrictions were eased on restaurants, travel between regions, and on social gatherings.'
The bus contracts for Santiago have been delayed (following 'thousands of questions from bidders') so will will not find out anymore about that at the interims this week.

Nothing has changed, except that lockdowns are reducing in all of nex's markets as the vaccine role out continues.
I do wonder if the government will give them he 8 week notice that it is stopping the bus support scheme soon, but that only impacts on the UK bus part and will be compensated by the increase in work for the coach side.
I watched our mid morning rural bus go past today and there were more people on it than I was expecting, including quite a few elderly passengers. With most retirees either fully, or soon to be fully vaccinated and starting to venture out, that segment of their market is returning.
Whilst I think the long commuter trips often by train into major cities, in particular to London, will be a long time rebounding, shorter urban bus trips to work will recover a lot faster.

67 will do for me.

I would imagine that they will wait until after the government has stopped paying the covid bus support grant or they will come in for lots of flack from the press.
I would prefer them to ensure their finances are in good shape and reduce debt rather than pay a divi, the potential capital increase in the sp should then more than compensate for loss of divi for another year.

From NY Times-
'The Food and Drug Administration is preparing to authorize the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for adolescents ages 12 to 15 by early next week.'
This will completely derisk Nex's US school bus business going forward.

Role out of vaccines (to the over 16's) in US schools-
'Broward County, the second largest in Florida, will begin offering vaccinations at high schools on Tuesday, aiming to reach all public schools in eight days, the Sun Sentinel reported.'

Whilst I think that Avacta's test is clearly more sensitive, you do need to be careful not to assume that ct values are 'absolute' values. If you look at the data from the Innova trial at Liverpool then at the higher ct values Porton was seeing a ct of approximately 4 less than the same samples processed at Glasgow. Both the rtPCR kit used and the instrument it is run on can influence the result. More meaningful, is Avacta's cross comparison with the other (unnamed tests), where they were the most sensitive.

From the Times-
‘As many as 24 countries or British overseas territories could be declared green for May 17. This includes Mediterranean destinations such as Portugal, Gibraltar, Malta, Israel and Morocco’……. ‘said it expected it to more than double from June 28 to include countries such as Spain’. Good to see Morocco on the list (it reflects that life is returning to normal) , tourists returning will have a positive impact for Alsa’s revenues, likewise for Spain in June. It will also help Nex in the UK as its shuttle services to the airports increase.
Many of the students in the UK who have not already returned will likely do so soon and staycations will also push up coach use as the weather improves.
Most schools are back in the US now and with their vaccinations going well there should be a summer market for school camps etc this year.
Rather than being overpriced I am surprised it has slipped back down to under 300p.

I think that the cabinets are a good bet, I am less sure about the whole room application. When I gave it a plug at somewhere I used to work they told me that they already had a similar system in place that they installed last summer. There may be some subtle difference that make Immo's clean room option better and the market is probably large enough for multiple players but I still see the other aspects of the business as being key.

As usual a lack of details in their updates , first quarter revenues were 1/3 more than the revenues for the whole of last year and just above those for the whole year 2019 even with the lockdowns in many European countries.
From the lack of any other people posting this is off most peoples radar, I cannot see it staying that way for long....

I think that the question that was on most peoples mind has been answered wit this statement.

'Much of the required investment in assets and stock to support our 2021 plan has already been made, which should allow us, with careful management of our cash resources, to be self-funded for the remainder of 2021.'

It is looking very good for Immo going forward. Chapeau to a very competent management team.

They will still be needing LFT's in schools for sometime yet. It is also likely that vaccine uptake will decline as you move down the age ranges so you can add to this Uni's needing testing for their students until Christmas. at the earliest.

I keep topping up on the dips with profits I have taken on some small caps. With First Group selling out its school bus division to PE (for £3.3b!), it highlights both the value of the school bus segment and it puts nex in a good position to pick up more contracts whilst First Group are in a state of flux.
With the US and UK doing well with vaccinations and covid cases in Spain and Morocco not looking to bad they should be in a position to start seeing a significant increase in passenger numbers going forward.

The initial response is that clearly other don't think the same as me. Not sure why, so I have just picked up another tranche at what I hope was a bargain price..

From elsewhere on LSE-
'For disinfection and pest control specialist Rentokil's first quarter results, UBS's Nicole Manion is forecasting a "relatively "strong" start to the year.
Nevertheless, while the contribution to sales from disinfection services was expected to have extended into the first three months of the year, her estimates called for a "dramatic fade" over the remainder of 2021.
Revenues from that business were seen declining to only £10m by the final quarter of the year.
For the first quarter on the other hand, she pegged disinfection revenues at £75m, for total growth in Hygiene sales of over 50%.
Full-year organic growth in pest control meanwhile was seen at more than 5%, albeit weighted towards the backhalf of the year due to the impact of business closures on commercial Pest at the beginning of the year.

She was spot on for disinfectant revenues, but undershot pest control growth (up 9.4% organic) by nearly 100%, she was also expecting the pest growth to be second half loaded. I can see an upgrade from UBS coming on the back of the actual results.

Well, much better than I was expecting. First quarter revenue 2021 (£713M), 2020 (£634M), 2019 (£607M).
No mention of cold snap in US or fx headwinds!
Next quarter should be strong with the vaccine roll out, lockdowns decreasing and moving into peak pest season. France workwear should pick up and should be ready to be sold off if the right offer comes along.