Member Info for Moleinahole

Hi guys been away for a week and returned to see same share price.

It's a puzzler for sure. I've posted before my view is that the catalogue of issues getting phase 1 over the line was expensive and missed great gas pricing for last winter but also ran up costs.
The drop coincided with quite modest institutional selling which saw IOG falling all the time the need for UK gas grew in importance and it's pricing rose.
The growing calls to penalize UK producers with a windfall tax almost seems to have impacted IOG harder than others. I'm not sure why maybe it's because we still have the debt to handle first so are less firm footed to absorb the uncertainty?
I still think LOG casts a long shadow even if they continue to wait for a higher price to cash out. I personally don't like them holding such a large position in combination with Lombard Osier. But if they hold for medium term then they are not causing the short term sluggishness.

I think the drop down to low twenties has made it harder to escape this range as we have sellers from that bottom range now who can trade. I suspect it's that short term dynamic that is in play.
Longer term money talks so it is all about getting more resources flowing as soon as possible. We are further into the news void that was inevitable once the longish drills for Southwark finally got underway and so it's only a matter of time before we hear news on Southwark. While it's not exploration we don't want any alterations to reserves like Elgood or Harvey. Be nice for a revision up for a change!
I think this will just suddenly move as it's done before for no obvious reason but it's tough on IOG and its shareholders given the macro economic context to be under where we were pre first gas. Should be higher but its going to take longer to get there.

Nothing will happen in until IOG have got this current work program complete and cash built up as a contingency for exploration and to start to cover the bond debt. The cash will have some way to go to do that in 2022!

LOG will I think wait now for Southwark flows. If they don't let the share price recover more and try and sell to exercise they will have to sell more and get less.
IOG can't really do a buyback with debt at this level. I think we are stuck with LOG and us with them for a while or until someone makes them an offer.

Aurora I'm ok.
The reality is that all these court cases take you back to where we were in 2018. At the end of the day you can't default on debt and try and transfer assets to avoid paying. The counter argument was around Hope. You are now seeing that finally start to play out. That will either be settled in court by a judgement or out of court by an agreement. That has always been the case. They are fighting between themselves for control and to beggar each other out of spite to a large degree.
They have between all the directors lost 4 years and continue to ignore the shareholders as they engage in this pantomime.
The control of shares could be consequential. Apart from the 1bn in treasury unissued it might enable Hope to remove the board if he had them and was able to call a meeting!
It's a great shame as had they carried on and executed the field plan it would not have been massively profitable but at current oil price it would have been ok.
It's still a mess and until you have clarity on the license, ownership, funding, viability of fields there is not alot to say. If they survive the company isn't going to relist any time soon and the recapitalisation becomes key but without a longer license I think the Georgians can just let that run out and the license will be gone.
So to go forward it needs settlement of court cases, license resolution and recapitalisation. Any one of those fails it's dead. The only hope is if they finally see sense and stop and agree something. They have an off ramp in blaming zaza and oil price helps alot as there is cash to generate now.
So I concentrate my energy on companies that build a business rather than spend all their time in litigation and politics.
I just increased my position in DELT and will finally recover my losses here I hope in IOG if gas prices stay high into next year.

gator be thankful that has pricing means we are in a better place. The short answer is that with lower prices they would generate less cash and so take longer to repay debt. That would normally mean it would continue to under perform in particular due to phase 1 having relatively expensive costs for its size of reserves. Higher prices have changed that but so far it's not reflected in the share price which still remains off where it should be. Getting back slowly nearer first gas price but its painful given the macroeconomic climate. We are in a bit of the doldrums due to the delays at Southwark in q1. By now we should have moved onto the exploration plays. But it's all gone back till Southwark is done. So it's a waiting game. But the macroeconomic picture continues to move in IOG favour.

Yes a modest one but a tidy sum...if you've been here a while there has been time to accumulate from the lows and hold at some not inconsiderable risk at times so it's been a bit of an odyssey. The drop even encouraged me to dig deeper averaging up.

JH why is a takeover a pertinent subject? Well for one AA tried once at 20p to leverage the LOG position and that has not changed. Trying again at 40p or 50p might elicit a different response. Secondly the board have themselves seen it as a future exit strategy but I think they want more of the hub built first.
That combined with the share register composition and a discounted share price means it's a very real threat.
Personally I want to see more progress first and remain hopeful we get well North of 40p as soon as possible. 50p after all the grief of last few years would be ok but we'll short of my hopes. I'm more in the @70p zone. But need s bit of consistency to get there, no more issues and strong gas prices. We are due a run of positive RnS to make up for some of the stuff we have had in the past. Bit of a waiting game with the odds for me still in our favour for a higher price. They really have to get Southwark over the line for next winter as missing high prices with volume a 2nd time would be poor.

CalE have 50% of some fields production.
They would still have 50%. Whether they want Kist as their operator is another matter. If they are competent and funded don't think they would care that much as long as the field development plans were honoured. If they didn't want them as operator then they would likely have to counter bid.

Gator there doesn't need to be much selling. The presence of traders is enough to encourage the MM to do what they have done today! They equally know when a larger chunk of II shares are in play and have been both shifting up at times to help get them away or down to find buyers. That's why we dropped to 24p.
There are two time horizons here. Short term it can up or down. But longer term with cash flowing in and no more issues its hard to argue against it going up. But we face headwinds on price due to the construct of the share register the board have created. My concern as a long term holder remains that the share register is setup to deliver a takeover and I think the key large holders would cash out at 50 to 70p. LO have reduced between 24p and 44p but surprisingly to me LOG admin are playing a long game. They need to having rejected 20p offer and then sat on their hands at 44p first gas. So I think they are waiting on Southwark to start to unwind their shares and options either in the market, company buyback or takeover sale.

Gator the drop to 24p has now added a new dynamic short term.
Traders. We seem to have attracted buys at the lows of small investors who will also sell into a drop or a rise.
The drop down will also not just have been II holders. PI holders clearly joined in and we have holders here who are also trading % of their holdings.
We are also in a bit of a news gap for IOG unless they tell us something about the drill at Southwark. The macro picture and bump from kist opportunism have played a bigger role I think than II selling unless we get a big delayed trade.

License to print money talk is what caused a windfall tax!

The correct message is IOG is doing it's bit to invest in the UK to ensure a supply of gas for the UK while Russia threatens European supply.

About time the share price rise as it should not be trading discounted below first gas and way below any sensible valuation.

The institutions are a nuisance. The big question is when do LOG make their move? They sat on their hands while the price was driven down so they clearly have a number in mind over 44p.

If IOG don't get the sharprice back up to where it should be we will see an offer for IOG. KIST is a cheaky offer given the cash SQZ have. IOG don't have the cash yet but Q4 should be when it really kicks in. IOG is very vulnerable to a takeover given the corporate structure the board have produced with large institutional holdings and LOG admin with commanding holdings.
Either a takeover or cash generation will move this up. But like GG I've been here years and this price is really poor and dangerously low. I was hoping to see the upside in IOG share price but a cheap takeout with a bit of cash and or paper seems more likely.

Indeed CalE are another of the beneficiaries of the issues LOG caused us.
They got a very good farm in off the back of it including not just the share and royalty but also protection to a degree from cost over runs and ability to choose not to participate in what they correctly identified as a high risk drill at Harvey but always with possibility of joining that after the event.

Search the Web. It's a speculative story of would we turn it off if we had a UK shortage or low pressure. If there was a shortage what was produced would be valuable. But seems an odd one as the issue is the lack of LnG terminals for all the imported gas that landed in UK to ship. That is what has hurt IOG since march. Too much gas not too little. If they turned it off it may well result in alot of gas in UK but the politics of it would not look good in the face of Russian aggression and a crisis in Europe. Seems like a non story to me as either way the price will be strong next winter and the only way it would be reduced is a genuine shortage. Which implies higher not lower prices.

This is normal. When the company gifted large amounts of discounted shares to institutions and options with LOG in addition to loan conversions they have created this market. It needs alot more consistent volume to offset our frequent sellers and the market view that until IoG show consistent results it deserves to be discounted. There has been a disconnect for some time between the share price and the business. Long term it will correct itself based on the business results but on a day by day basis it's been difficult to watch for some time now.
Nice rise at Deltic on news I see.

This was discussed about a year ago when we were looking at potential customers for stranded assets using Saturn banks.
Part of the equation on that is Bacton getting their act together to receive product. Be interesting where IOG choose to go next.
The CalE connection, work up the existing plan, license round. Farm in seems less likely unless the share is access to some capacity in pipeline and bacton. But it has always been an option to earn some income off access to the facilities so maybe we see a mix as IOG accumulate some cash there are some gaps in the rollout over next couple years so it's a possibility.

Anything under 66p should be a good price. The problem is in the meantime it's subject to some headwinds from institutions like Lo and potentially LOG admin in first case to raise funds to execercise options to stay under 30% holding.
As long as Southwark comes in with no more delays or issues it's well placed over time to recover and grow.
It's the left field issues and LOG/institution headwinds that have held us back.
We have had more than our fair share of problems we are due a change of luck.
Gas pricing has saved the company from significant problems.

Not resistance points. They have both sold into the two good news rises we have had in last 6 months and killed momentum again.
To think I was expecting LOG to cause a headwind in selling not LO and others. Going to need some bigger buyers to mop up again some volume. Begs the question was it simply moved up for them to sell. Again.

Lower than here! They both sold on first gas as well so using the rise again to sell. Why is the more important question may not be IoG related and just portfolio. But really does to me question exactly how reliable these institutions are that were courted deliberately by company and onboarded at discount placings.

Aligator I believe any bid has to higher than the 44p first gas price. So yes that is the starting point.
The RNS has alot to digest. Will have another careful read tonight. Looks like hedge is deferred due to volatility. My other quick observation was reporting electrical issues which has been responsible for so e downtime.
Southwark seems to have gone ok. It has been a long drill. They say they have hit reservoir but said nothing else. We now have a benchmark for part 2 of the drill.
Fingers crossed the issues are now being chalked off not to return. The confirmation of numbers on Elgood and Blythe was good news.
The exploration drills and surveys warrant a good read. The extra licensing round is important for IOG.
The fact the share price continues to be weighed down given confirmation of volumes and resumption of production at ok pricing really grates. All the company can do is continue to progress and apply lessons learnt. Why the share price is not recovering more is a bit unjustified based on that RNS.

Thanks guys well aware of fracking and directional drilling I live next to where they were drilling in Lancashire (the adjacent field I think they may even have been under my house! given the direction they drilled) on their first phase by cuadrilla and familiar with it onshore from other companies I've invested in. It quite a deep well then that explains the long drill I'd agree on time based on average drill rate. Still surprised they have not mentioned we have reached any milestones yet. If both are from the NUI then obviously it means we have two long drillls before they release the rig for the exploration drills.
They need to get Elgood and Blythe volume back up as Southwark is clearly not going to hit start of the winter season!

Gator I guess it's the old adage the share price is a measure at a point in time considering past performance, future potential and current circumstances. The underlying real value will be measured by increase in assets on the balance sheet and a reduction in debt.

Part of the problem as I see it is the issues have reduced the flow of cash onto balance sheet and increased costs. The company has been hammered for that with the drop amplified by wider context and the sales by some big holders.
It's going to take some solid news now to rebuild. The possible news flow items are there and not far away.

I've asked a few times on length of Southwark and total depth. Blythe was 6 weeks wasn't it is Southwark deeper to reservoir or more complex. Elgood took longer as they had problems. It's not deep water!

Also how is the second well drilled are they moving away from the platform or is that drilled through platform as well?