Member Info for Moleinahole

Yes late email requiring a covid test was a surprise but for me I finally couldn't go due to late work commitments ruining my diary yesterday left it too tight to catch train down. So it cost me a pre booked train ticket. Looking forward to any info from those who could. Malcy on the running order and the early billed finish did not add to my 50/50 call on trying to make the train.

Placing is unlikely unless they have another mishap. Hopefully they can get a cash buffer built up to reduce the risk of funding further for anything like that.
They can borrow more on the bond i think up to another £30m if they really need it for something and they will still have the overdraft facility.
The main reason they would is if an opportunity presented itself to buy something but that could involve shares as part of an acquisition like nearly happened with Deltic last year.
I did notice that there may be another licensing round later in the year that will be interesting.

Scored we are not dropping more going sideways!

Mano - looked at LOG last night. They have I guess still the 3 tranches.
A large number of shares @26% of the issues shares. A 20m shares convertible at @32p and a loan Used to be £10m.
The most liquid nvestment is the shares for LOG. The convertible has up to Aug 23 to run. So to convert would need over £6m to get a return of £1.5m profit.
The recent share sale probably raised £1.5 m+. So if they need more cash to convert they would need to sell alot more or finance first. The risk to them is if they convert and hold. So it's in their interest to see a much higher share price to be able to exit in my opinion. So Mano I agree they will nibble away at this. The convertible timing if it was me I would do probably once Southwark was live. Funded by a gradual average sell off of some of the shares as a hedge.
The euro bond can't be paid off early before sept 22. So short term IOG will just accumulate cash to derisk the next round of works offshore I think.

It's on website under investor tab at top and then option private investor evening. 6:30pm soho hotel. Short presentation and questions and network with shareholders....I hope a drink as I may need one after past year! I'll need another larger one if the Southwark drill stops again!

Thanks jemand we had a previous IOG RNS that confirmed as orderly disposal condition was in place but originally I think it was for 1 year. I'm not sure we have heard officially since but had always assumed something should be in place.
We were never going to see the administrators doing a fire sale b ut they do have the capacity to weigh us down at any level they choose to sell. Hence it's on my list of questions as it helps us calibrate what our largest shareholder might do in the future.44p triggered the institutional sells but LOG seem to be a seller in the 38p to 40p range at moment.

Edgar you are pushing it with the extraordinary label unless you are being ironic!

If you separate away the finances and some of the decisions around the exploration drilling you are left with the operations around Bacton and the phase 1 fields. I personally think the contractors are likely in the main the issue there. The puzzle is why we have had such a series of delays from very short time horizons.
Irrespective of whether you think they have done an extraordinary job with the engineering and again I think extraordinary is pushing it in describing the past year the outcome has been late delivery and missed opportunity. I'm thankful that in the end we have reached this point but I think we have been very fortunate that gas price has been strong as that will mitigate and gloss over in time alot of the issues.

The selling has nothing to do with the company fundamentals. The RNS and other news simply help them unload at this target price. The way to get rid of them is to continue to deliver cashflow and operational activity without any more problems. The bigger the volume the more they can sell.
They can't buyback until the wider finances are more stable so that's not an option for several months.

Not convinced looks like LOG or another Institution selling to me. Few bed and ISA today as well. I actually increased my holding a bit more today so was watching closer than usual the trades. Understand CFD idea but just not seeing it here.
Anyway booked train now for next week shareholder meeting so looking forward to a chance to hear what they have to say for themselves. Lots of areas to talk about.

Scored it's not being shorted it's the weight of institutional holders who are all in profit trimming positions - this again feels like LOG. its a real pain I know and after the delays even getting to first gas it's again served to frustrate and diminish the enjoyment of IOG reaching this milestone.
The problem is that unless IOG attracts a larger buyer to hoover them up it will take as long as it takes. At the moment someone or the market usable to absorb them around this level so we have reached a resistance point. Unless the market ups the demand it could go sideways till they stop.
Sorting Blythe and Southwark won't do any harm but the in profit institutions is a factor that continues to act as a real drag. We are lucky gas pricing remains strong else this would have been very painful.

Not surprised it was them. I assume some sort of orderly disposal agreement is broadly in place still even if it's in LOG interest not to crater the share price. You would think they will likely sell enough to at some point do the conversion of their remaining former options. Would need to work out what that would be. I think an update on LOG is high on my list of questions for 20th.

Timing is interesting pre drill resumption.
Be interesting to see who takes them up. TR1 with Lombard replacing their previous sells maybe?

Scored the seller or more likely sellers clearly impact the short term share price. That is only an issue if you are trying to trade IOG on a short time horizon. If the run up to first gas attracted some short term traders the MM will squeeze them out over next week or so. It's never been the sort of share to try and trade but Peak seems to have a go. It's much more in the buy for the asset and a stable long term appreciation. That being said it's therefore the cash projections underpinned by long term gas pricing and hedging strategy that is key as the offshore operations continue to bring fields online. Good post by GG on that yesterday. It may take time to progress towards the higher share price valuations but it looks pretty well covered at this price and the trajectory albeit with some periods of pullbacks or more likely travelling sideways.

I think that's why the institutions are here. CalE don't need to do anything they are getting a nice return having paid for the ride with capped costs. It's a tidy return for them but small in the grand scheme. The puzzle with CalE is what the longer term in the partnership looks like and why they have been happy to use IOG as a vehicle with a non operator status.

Sailor - the activity at Southwark is pleasing shame about the weather yet again!

Dell from my experience of being shorted in a stock i happen to hold this just does not look or feel like it's being shorted.

There are a few good reasons why I would think you wouldn't short IOG.
1. It's not a very liquid stock. If you sell the shares could well be taken up by other holders as the company is under valued. You normally short when a sock is overvalued or an unfavoured sector. IOG is in a key sector selling an in demand product and manifestly undervalued.
2. Shorting or at least selling often accompanies a placing. IOG is now cash positive and has indicated they will fund from existing resources. If they were going to do a placing then the institutional investors like sept 2021 would be able to buy at a good discount anyway. There was no noticeable shorting pre sept placing but the price was run up a bit pre placing.
3. A company that has in the past faced a possible takeover and has said itself it is always open to offers is a very dangerous company to short. At any time out of left field an offer can come and a short might be expensive to close.

The reality I think is for reasons I've previously posted it's consolidated at this level. We have seen some selling of institutions and PI who are in profit at or around the year end. The RNS have not helped with sentiment and as a result it has staggered to first gas without any real momentum.
The next couple of weeks will be interesting once Blythe is sorted and Southwark finally resumes drilling. That will remove 2 uncertainties that have emerged since Jan and in time the revenue will speak for itself. Cutting out the problems and generating revenue is key here. The share price will find it's own level but as discussed many times will be influenced by the behaviour of the larger in profit institutional holders and whatever plans the LOG administrators have. There is nothing a PI investor can do about that.

Peak that would be on my 20th April questions list!
It's important to understand whether the board is thinking sell off or incrementsl develop as their main strategy. We discussed was it a few weeks ago one of the companies that would have gone to threadlethorpe but would now have Bacton as their landing point. Higher gas pricing and a desire to displace russua might also mean other older locked in fields might be more viable.

Volume today will be interesting to see if the seller stops and who is bed and ISA or buying in New ISA year. IOG not a bad place to invest with a floor around 38p tested and holding a few times now.

Wolster yes the fields don't have a long life and most value is in early years. That is why some of us keep highlighting reserves as an important issue and why when they spend scarce cash and time on prospects and then throw then away like Harvey last year we comment on it. If they want to be around in the future they have to add additional proven reserves. Hence why the prospect drilling is important. We get to that quicker once Southwark is done. The other option remains using the capacity in the pipeline for so done else (ex threadlethorpe fields) or an acquisition. Again that's easier once they have cash or CalE have something in mind.

Was watching the mini IOG converge last night on the marine track so good to see them on the move.

The bigger issue short term seems to be the annoying seller. Once into new financial year will be interesting to see if they stop! If .38/.39 is the low point then I can live with that. If they can finally turn Blythe on and have a clean run at Southwark then a solid base to go from here.

Gas is valuable this year even before Ukraine. Now it's a valuable strategic asset for the UK and Europe. You would think we should be accelerating developments.

Still looking at Diary for 20th as I'd like to hear the board explain some of the past years events.

Risky the fact that you can't explain or calibrate the impact of the issue after a 2nd RNS shows the RNS didn't hit the mark.
Let's hope for the best. The share price has priced it as a minor issue. For me I'll be happier once Southwark drilling gets underway as the rig has been sat idle for too long all winter. Fingers crossed nothing else goes wrong with that and they have checked the ROV this time and the legs and anything else that could go wrong.

Absolute disaster for IOG that cratered the share price was LOG revelations, Skipper, Harvey and the great institutional share giveaways.

The RNS was an odd interim one. The second part completion of the seabed work is the most important long term as that gets the rig working again. The Blythe bit is really annoying and it reflects badly on competence but it should be short term. The poor part of the RNS is the vagueness of what is wrong and his long to resolve. That is a habit the board continue to display.
Long term this will be ok. The macro economic gas picture got better over the weekend. When they stop shooting themselves n the foot we will move forwards carrying the legacy of past failures with us like before. I think it's just so irritating that we continue to experience these issues and the lack of clarity doesn't help.

I'd be interested to hear from some of the offshore experts on whether this run of bad luck is normal and exactly what this topside chemical injection is for at Blythe. Is this to do with well cleanup, processing gas/condensate or lubrication of machinery/corrosion? It surely should be a fairly standard process for North sea so interested in any insight.

Meanwhile watching offshore boat activity might be as exciting as it gets this week on marine track.....

Yes indeed it's an odd one. It's not very clear even from that RNS what the problem is and what has caused it. So it's hard to work out how long it's shut in. The odd bit is the mention of process and safety studies.
Frustrating is an understatement.

That would be true Peak until they were paid by the financial compensation scheme. I think the main creditor now is the govt and they can wait a long time one suspects. May be wrong on that but that has changed the dynamic around LOG. Equally may explain why they aren't selling like they used too.