Member Info for Moleinahole

Gator I haven't personally pinged them yet on Bacton. The problem is the last couple of RNS where it was mentioned were a wee bit naughty on Bacton I think. Southwark pantomime won't have helped its been a distraction when 100% focus needed to be on finishing Bacton.

I was surprised it was not finished long before Elgood or at least Blythe was done. They seemed to leave alot of it very late for no obvious reason. So you are left to fill in the gaps and try and guess whether anything is or is not wrong. With IOG they have a considerable capacity to deliver a left field RNS. On this I don't sense that - I think they are just plain late and probably knew it in dec but didn't want to say it. I think they have next week and the weekend but by 1st Feb they simply have to say something about the 2 big ticket items - Bacton and Southwark. They declined to mention Bacton in the Southwark RNS so its impossible to call. Another Southwark RNS with no Bacton hint or news would prompt me to ping them.

No news on Bacton or Southwark by then either and I'll be wanting to know what they are up to as they really are now burning time and money and missing revenue at the best prices seen in recent years. Missed revenue months now are very costly compared to price we will get if they miss the gas bus.

Viable yes indeed very small punt but none the less annoying as been working in office last few days so commuting and not able to buy/sell and been busy so it's one of those things. Always seems to be the way. Holding them now as not worth selling and waiting for an explanation.
I'll have a look at your others and start to track them to see how they do. I often do that as much as an education about the businesses.

One thing did come to mind when I was looking at the marine track on IOG other day was whether when doing the final connection and switch on for Bacton having the vessels nearer Blythe and Elgood made sense and out of the way of Southwark while they sort it out. Come on IOG get it over the line.

Friday great for the weekend papers surely....You would think it's a good news story when it lands but with all the sniping at UK oil and gas in the global gas spike and likely funders to support bills especially unfair if it lets super profits of imports stand who knows what the headline would be! North sea carpet baggers land at Bacton to exploit poor UK customers.....rather than plucky UK company and its band of battle scared investors do their bit to ease gas crisis and bail out LOG bondholders at same time.....while still waiting to hear when their rig will be back working after 4 months of unplanned delays.
If bill payers think investing in o & g expo and extraction is easy then think again. It's expensive and risky for investors particularly in small cap players. Let alone the frustration it can cause........we are due at least some periods where the rewards justify the considerable risks.

And I extend that same sentiment to ALT energy which I also have supported over many years on AIM and hoping to enjoy a pot of gold at the end of those rainbows one day. The investment needed and risk over an extended period there is equally vexing.

Sermon over......now come on IOG let's be having you.

Indeed we are pushing the early weeks now (you know that when you stop saying happy new year) but inside the latitude of the last RnS. What that of course means is back end 2021 RNS were not entirely accurate as they must absolutely have known it would take too longer by weeks not days. Fingers crossed it's near.
Absolutely nothing can be done. Worse things happen like the obliteration of my small punt at ADV yesterday the saga of which surpasses by a country mile the bad days IOG have delivered.
So a nice RNS here please IOG to end my week would not go amiss.

Peak I wish! But have always found IOG pretty good when I've pinged in the odd question over the years. Exchanged with them in Q4 last year so the delays have surprised a bit as I really don't think they expected the turn of events we have had. I might ask about why they let the nearby fields get away in licensing round when they are less busy! AGM this year might be interesting if we can go again or maybe they will do a webcast presentation to explain 2022 once they have replanned as I think they must now be facing.
I do think we will get some PR on the first gas and break into 40p to 50p range. But it's going to be close run I suspect between that and news on Southwark now. Fingers crossed the pipeline and facilities pass the test, back gas and we can get going. Don't want another left field problem.......please.

Viable the posting here remains so low I've never known relevant off topic to be panned. i think the reviews of peers is highly relevant in judging IOG performance at an operations and share price measure. I am particularly interested in the other SNS players in that regard while we wait news.

Be nice if they finished Bacton nearly 3 weeks into year now! Be really nice if the Southwark Jonah could be found! Expensive rig time being left idle now 6 weeks and counting lost since the previous rig setback of 2 months.

With so many other shares in sector doing very well IOG is so pedestrian. There are institutions sitting on good profits from 10p. They absolutely need to finish Bacton and sort out Southwark. Come on IOG get it over the line.

Viable - When I looked at marine track when I got in last night I could see the rig had been moved from when I last looked and it was marked as destination Elgood. They may have just moved it out of the way. But it was showing as just north of Blythe that is indeed near where Elgood is. Not been on today on marine track as busy. But it's so frustrating after all this time. They have to finish Bacton and they have to finish Southwark as both are critical to the business. The sooner the better.

Evening folks. Been out all day at work so good to see so action at Southwark.

Looking at marine track Hans is showing as going to Elgood with other vessels?
If so why?

Viable although a little off topic while we wait do you want to put your magnificent 7 up. I'm tracking a similar lust Dunderhead put up a year ago.
I took a small punt on ADV after watching them on the proactive with IOG the other month. They should have an interesting week.
Hopefully on IOG Bacton is close now. Next week would be nice. I suspect we will hear about Southwark after Bacton unless it's still weeks away.

Hi Aurora decided to avoid comment on FRR blow by blow accounts of court cases (did that in 2016/17) as I am beyond disgusted with the way shareholders continue to be treated by ALL and I mean ALL the board of directors. There is not alot that can be said really while it's going on. It is to date an unmitigated disaster and huge failure of corporate governance within the company.
I fundamentally disagree with the boards continued policy of 3 years of secrecy and non communication of any sort to the body corporate and 4 years since a formal AGM. It is indefensible. Fascinating and at times amusing as it is to watch the pantomime being played out I find it less amusing looking at the large hole it's left in my finances.

Instead I concentrate energy on recovering the losses elsewhere and other more important things in life. I'm acutely aware that is not an option to some FRR shareholders.
In view of the delist (and the lockdowns of last 2 years) malt drinking is not what it was but have just cracked a bottle of the ardbeg wee beastie to give it a go.

I feel the pain of all the FRR investors deeply. There are some really decent people here many I've got to know over the past decade. I'm not so sure any of the people in FRR either understand or care about the damage they have caused. If they did they would have had the courtesy to address us. The continued failure to do that speaks loudly to me. The odds are against us irrespective of the outcomes the company and its board and creditors may yet engineer for themselves but the casino wheel is still spinning here so there is a slim chance of a result. Very slim I'm afraid.

To answer peak question they are contingent. The valuation case uses the mid which projects 217bcf over 10 years for phase 1 and attributes value to their future phases which is another 127bcf. As ever you have high and low estimates either side of that.
The puzzle remains why IOG or CalE didn't go for them as with the fields that DELT took in the 32nd license round. The report itself demonstrates the high cost per bcf IOG have incurred mainly because the reserves are not big enough to average it out compared to other projects. So IOG need reserves which we may see from this year's exploration but it's odd that these were not snapped up.

The main issue seems to be the export route closing to threddlethorpe so a new route needed. Hartshead seem very short of cash so absolutely will need a farmin partner and bond finance and equity funding to complete pre FID. First gas pencilled in 2024.
Odd that these were not added to the hopper in the round - why not? There are some risks as ever around the fields but nothing really jumped out. One to watch.
I think a mix of KIST, DELT, IOG and Hartshead could make a nice portfolio for next few years. Added to my watch list.

Thanks for posting on Hartshead just spent a while reading the MS Access note from their website and an interesting read as IOG is used to benchmark in it.
Also has some good sections on the tax as part of the valuation models as well as the usual technical stuff.
I'd agree they are a good fit and very much where IOG were several years ago pre the FID and funding round. They are cash poor so have to raise to progress and then find a farming partner and bond finance when they get to funding.
Interesting read.

Just had a quick scan of their web site were they ex threddlethorpe users needing a new export route?
If so then yes the IOG board have raised the prospect of ex threddlethorpe fields as potential customers or acquisition targets. Having decided to throw in the towel at Harvey there is always the possibility of leveraging the Saturn banks facilities either to buy or rent out capacity. With cash and completed facilities from phase 1 these are the sort of options that can open up especially with CalE as a partner.

Scored do they have a transportation route to market or are they a potential user of Saturn banks? As rather than a takeover they could be a potential income source using the facilities.
I think the British Gas report of high gas price for 2 years is the underlying dynamic here that is both supporting the share price inspite of delays and offers good returns even with a gas tax hike.

Peak it's not a perceived hiccup! This well started in Oct and it's now heading to mid Jan! It's late and getting later. Sailor is assuming what the issue is. The reality is we don't know.
However, I reiterate what's more important is what is happening at Bacton. On that we have silence while they finish what they are up to. I would have liked at least a line to update on that in same RNS
How should we read that? A surprise RNS on that would be nice and when I saw the red dot today that was my first thought of news rather than further issues at Southwark.
The thing I'm watching here is the communication patterns that the board continue to use to manage and deliver sub optimal news. On AIM shares you can never be blaze about anything and IOG are the masters of the left field news.

sailor it's not a matter of finger pointing. The question is now how long will it take. Demobilising personal and equipment suggests it's not quick. The cost this time looks full square on IOG.
Seabed conditions must have been known from the survey. Whilst it could just be another one of those things runs of "bad luck" need to be addressed and stopped as they are becoming a little bit more than frustrating on this campaign.
Once again no news on Bacton to soften the RNS.
The fall will also be in part due to the talk of taxing profits. I had a quick look at that and if IOG have allowances to use to offset against tax then the impact will be offset in year 1 I think.

GG we should never have been at 14p and lower in the first place of course! The late mates rates placing in 2021 has acted as a brake to the share price as has the delays and missed targets for Q4.
So whilst I broadly agree and I'm pleased they have finally almost executed the heavy engineering. And I'm well aware of the inherent capacity of such programs to have issues that cause over runs of time and cost. The cost of 2021 activity we will see when we get some numbers. It's late and gone back even in year close to the delivery dates. The delay is not significant in the long term but the big news of 2021 has been the gas pricing and so whilst the delay has meant the opportunity to launch into high gas pricing for a full winter has been missed - it's not really late by industry standards.
The delays and issues at Southwark are however very frustrating when added to the pushed back first gas date. I would guess the board share my own frustration on that. Hopefully the rig got a thorough look over in Dundee and we can see them complete the program without further issues with it.
Peak puerile? The issues at Southwark have cost 3 months delay cumulatively and one gets slightly suspicious the way the RNS have been written recently - you fear when they issue RNS like that the rig could still have had issues. I've been investing in oil and gas small caps for 30 years and there are patterns in RNS and communication I've learnt to be very wary of. So hallelujah it's finally spudded. We are lucky the issue did not occur at Blythe else we would have has first gas pushed out well into 2022. The hanging question now is when in 2022 is Bacton completed we get first gas and will the high prices continue. They have chosen for the second RNS to not comment further on Bacton. So it's a guessing game.
The rest of 2022 we need Southwark to come in on or ahead of time, the extension to pipeline to Southwark completed on time. The current term they use for Southwark is now mid year. So it seems to have gone out a bit to me but it's hard to tell. Having potted Harvey the development drills in 2022 will be important. Hedging and decisions around the capital and bond will be key events. Elgood volumetrics will also be interesting given the lower size of the pay.
So yes it's been a good year in the round (mostly good but with a few setbacks) but key milestones have been missed and that is why we are at 36p and not 45p+. Hopefully we will see that next year. Hard to imagine another left field event on phase 1.

Be nice to get a decent RNs with no delay or bad news or uncertainty. The capacity of the company to surprise even when least expected has become so normal I think I'm desensitised to it. So far in this campaign the contractors have had issues at Elgood and we have now had delays at Southwark with a rig failure and now not 1 but 2 ROV in same weak. I guess we should be thankful it happened at Southwark and not Blythe. All 3 incidents as a collective start to point to me to something underlying in the project. As it's all contractor executed my suspicion is something in driving keen pricing on the contractors may lie behind the issues as a theme is emerging here. Would be interesting to see who is bearing the cost of the kit failures. At least some must be falling on IOG. The key remains the onshore work which they need now to be really pressing harder than ever to get completed. Pressure for that no doubt will be coming also from the off takers .
Be interested in pipe or GG view on the issues we have had in this campaign. Also is 2 ROV failures for 2 weeks common and is there not the option of sending a diver down in these circumstances or is Southwark too deep or unsafe to have done that?

Pipe yes it a blip but it's absolutely typical IOG! The series of bad luck on this campaign begs the question why. Have they procured cheaply or been supplied b kit by contractors, has kit been left idle and hence the risk of issues is higher or have they just been plain unlucky again.
Slight delay and at least they RNS having held out hoping to fix it last week - was looking like an issue so if it's just ROV then that's at the soft end of issues. Fingers crossed now that the rig itself has no issues. No update on Bacton which is the key piece of news in near term would think that will have been pushed out to next week with a break over Christmas.
So couple of !ost weeks offshore and still having to guess date for onshore.

Peak a gas tax on UK suppliers would be really unfair unless similar levies raised on LNG and other imports. But again would be absolutely typical if being late on 1st gas coincides with a change in petroleum taxes. The question would be what size and given the volatility up and down exactly how it would work. If they interfere in the market suppliers could just reduce supply (or reduce investments in fields which is a large reason for supply side factors already) and keep the prices higher for longer or cause an actual shortage of supply if gas diverts to other markets.

Nice close for xmas. Finally broken that 35p ceiling that the placing knocked us back from and moving towards the 40's which is where we should be.
Been a good year with the usual ups and downs on the way. Shame we didn't quite get first gas in 2021 but something for 2022 to look forward to now.
Happy Christmas to all. Peak special thanks to you for keeping the board going through the challenging times we have had and I'm very pleased for you to see us moving up.

They RNS'd Blythe spud. Southwark last time we couldn't get the legs down so you would think an RNS would be a good idea to confirm everything ago and we are underway. Maybe they are saving that for tomorrow as we are still in the "next week" at moment.