Member Info for Moleinahole

The question will be how over subscribed it is and whether they accommodate requests further! In current climate of gas crisis if you can't raise then you never will.
Share price indicates to me no issues raising. You can't buy volume on IOG unless Lombard or LOG admin sell. This is the easy way for the funds to do it at a discount. Mates rates.
LOG admin approach now will be interesting with the extra dilution. They seem to be playing a very long game.

And yes once placing in the hands of the city boys the least I expect here on completion of Blythe and then first gas in current climate is a bit of PR to blow the trumpet and make up a bit of lost ground as while IOG has increased the share price it's not where it should be. Take DELT the target from last year that post the failed attempt pulled back 1.8 to 0.70 and is now above 2.00 but is still fair way off its drill.
IOG has persistently faced headwinds on the price so will be nice if Blythe comes in ahead of time and with reserves intact for a change.

Vista indeed those of us who have been here a while and in particular post the giveaway to the institutions post the LOG debacle, skipper and harvey are well versed in the left field of IOG.

If they really had to put money on the table to keep the rig by 30th sept then it keeps interest into 2022 going with the drill into strong pricing. But it is about future phases so as I say it's only when you look back that the timing can be analysed in the round. The RNS does not indicate any issues with the recent drilling but the flow test in next few days is key so you can never be sure. Don't think institutions would be pleased if they subscribe into bad news! One wonders if they have been approached to put some funds in and if LOG admin hold then there aren't many shares available to buy outside this placing.
Good result at Blythe and then this will quickly be behind but as I say nibbling bits off my upside but good drill in this new location would compensate. So it's swings and roundabouts.

Have a read of the prospectus on the website.
The reason is understandable we knew they had the rig option. This is to secure it and CalE are 50% so it's our share. It's not for working capital. Probably right to try and accelerate while gas prices are higher. But it is exploration and the hub would need more capital if it proved viable so hard to know the balance between raise now Vs options post phase 1. But CalE will have had a big say.
Explains the brake on share price while gas price rose.
I think I broadly agree but it again shows that the old PI holders are not in the thinking but they still took opportunity to participate as a board in the subscription!
Not alot one can do as they have authority.
So all in all along with the update which so far is no issues at Blythe it will only have a temp impact. Never good to be diluted but you can imagine a queue of eager institutions snapping these up - bit more going to the big city boys and away from the long term holders.

Ziggy with so much going on its easy to loose sight of some of the threads.

The FTI vs FRR directors sub plot has been rumbling on since 2019. But I don't recall that particular signed order being posted or discussed though we knew they had been to see the judge to get actions sanctioned - the liquidation is under court supervision.

The other puzzle is where Outrider and Hope fit now including with FTI. FTI are going to look pretty bad if they did not do the due dilligence around the Green transaction and maybe open themselves up to action if they have not been careful. They knew in Q4 2019 something was unusual about Green - but it seems to have taken another year for the rest of the FRR board to react and yet the transfer to Green was rubber stamped by FTI. That to me still sticks out as unusual. How much the FRR board knew about the Green transaction in 2018/19 is something I sill haven't fathomed out.

But we do at the moment have the various threads of litigation:

1. Hope/Outrider vs FRR in California (fiduciary) and Texas (security).
2. FRR and Georgians v Green/Zaza over transfer of Block 12.
3. Zaza vs FRR and Directors for fiduciary breach in Texas.
4. Georgians vs Green/Zaza investigation.
5. FTI vs FRR in Cayman/US (we may see more if it results in a case we can track on Pacer) (Director roll in insolvency/trading while insolvent maybe/or the transfer attempt to FRR US maybe).
6. Other FRR creditor battles including YA for their preference shares!

Its actually gone beyond anything anyway could have imagined or predicted.

Whether Outrider/FTI can fall in line/cut a deal to enable FRR and Georgians to come to a deal - cutting out the Green/Zaza grouping now remains to be seen. I still think to do that FRR would need to demonstrate a plan and funding to the Georgians and possibly Outrider. With that Outrider might see an attraction in equity - which raises the interesting question of what impact FTI pursuing a separate course of action could have on the outcomes here.

The winners here are the lawyers - but the outcomes for FRR remain uncertain and all the Directors will be concerned.

Whamboy its not the large number of posts disappearing thats the problem its the dissappearing shares from the nominee accounts.

Well its interesting that Green think they need US govt assistance. Perhaps they should "invest" in some paid lobbying. The puzzle in the statement again is whether they actually paid anything into the dubious assignment in 2018 which FRR "defaulted" on and formed the basis of the security to execute a Georgian corporate raid and appropriation of the asset from US and UK shareholders.

What it does show is that the Georgians remain the kingmakers here. But from where they stand kicking the can down the road just gets closer to the expiry of the PSA when they take it anyway - the most likely outcome while all the former board Hope, Zaza and Steve fight each other.
Whether FRR can get it back under their control remains to be seen - for me that can only happen with a mix of dramatic political wheeler dealing and someone stepping in with deep pockets. The higher oil price helps. But its a long, long way back.

toro - yes the increase in prices is fortuitious and merits a rerate given the closeness to gas and he high volumes early phase 1 envisaged anyway in 2022. To me once the ambiguity caused by the Elgood RNS is out of the way or priced in over time it should move.

But volume remains low in terms of trades - so it remains undervalued. To me the last 2 RNS have been 2 steps forward (price and completion of well and 1 back (volume) in terms of progress and the niggle of the slight delay.

Aligator - Gasprom would not be my chosen partner must say! But it must have been approved by CalE - so if they are not concerned then I'd go with it as they must be at a bit of arms length to any sanctions target. Besides why would you cut off your own domestic produced gas in any sanction dispute.

FRR over the years have drilled new wells - I have seen them. Apart from the expensive Basin Edge well, Nico and Dino are FRR wells as well as numerous shallow gas wells in Mtsare. The rest like the T wells in Taribani and the likes of UD2 are old badly drilled and poorly completed soviet wells. Mind they have had several goes at Dino and Nico to get them to flow with various sidetracks which they have also done on the old soviet wells - so many are not new wells per se but are sidetracks from the old bore. I would also class some of the Mirzani wells as closer to FRR than Soviet with the work schlumberger did.

The problem as ever has been getting the wells to flow good volume beyond the initial flow. Hence the question of whether the fields are exhausted or empty at the higher zones or whether its closer to an unconventional field in the higher zones that needs alot of stimulation to get the gas and oil out - while the deeper zones which ma be more conventional remain out of reach due to the cost of the deeper wells. That is what FRR have been trying to do for the past decade.

But that requires money and access to expertise that FRR over the past decade had not been able to marshal. That is at the root of the arbitration dispute. FRR thought their past investment and work merited more time on the block while GOGC thought otherwise. It was not till the last minute that FRR got the 2017/18 campaign underway with shareholder support and to this day we do not have the definitive answer particularly what happened at the last well when they finally went a bit deeper which remained unreported and under test right up to when communication ceased.

So outside Taribani the activity has not resulted in a new well in a previously unproduced field - other than arguably Mtsare shallow gas. Again that has been a puzzle as to why more cheap wells were not drilled and hooked up to generate revenue - we know there were issues with water but that should have been solvable - how prospective the rest of the shallow gas was and why they stopped is a mystery.

The CPR as I have posted many times are not full CPR that could result in bookable reserves. They remain at the prospective level and as noted by GOGC lacked sufficient confirmatory drilling and detailed field development plan to move towards bookable reserves.

FRR problems since the 2011 restructure is insufficient capital, failure to produce sufficient revenue from exploratory drilling to attract a farm in partner or alternative funding. The consequence of that was that Outrider could not be paid off and that once the interest was big enough and secured when combined with the GOGC running out of patience has delivered the two pronged assault on the company that has left workers without jobs and unpaid, shareholders left in limbo with their shares unlisted and effectively worthless while the company executive focus on securing their own interest.

Thanks Monkey.

Was being bit lazy other day as very busy at work. So will read that link. Figured it must be a horizontal just puzzled why the RNS put the emphasis it did. Intrigued now to see why Blythe was deemed easier compared to Elgood.
So when get few moments tonight will have a look as CPR are always an interesting read.

The back story of the gas price certainly helps. While we have to pay back the bond and CalE get their 50% great year to harvest value if they complete the phase 1 work now whatever the ultimate volume of the reserves.

Peak and there is the puzzle - 15 trades all day and even last few days were quiet considering the news.

The low volume and tightly held shares by both PI and institutions maybe explains why they don't see the need for any sort of PR. However, CalE no doubt will have a close eye on them and the LOG admin and Lombard with their pile of shares will no doubt have had a word. Fingers crossed Blythe is smoother and does not result in further ambiguity about reserves. An offtake signing would help - but maybe thats dependent on a smooth execution at Blythe - both because that is the platform for the hub and to quantify phase 1. Roll on the gas price continuing to rise to fix a good offtake. Next RNS should be that they have spudded the Blythe drill (or some bargain shares again in lieu of salary!). Weather nice at moment for them to crack on.

So this looks like bottom for moment - sat right where LOG admin need it for alot of their warrant conversions to profit and hence where Rock Rose pitched a speculative offer other year. The 20p level is not in my opinion based on anything other than that.

Well done for buying I bought alot at this level on the way down few years ago and am at my target - fortunately still in profit but poorer on paper than this time last week.

TSBs the answer to that probably lies in money they want back from the arbitration costs and award.....and the unusual and extreme lengths Steve went to politically pressure the Georgians. Whether FRR still enjoy any political backing or not given events time will tell.

I've posted before its not in any of the players interests to fold the company while it has no assets and owes them all money. The reason there is so many cases involving direct calls on the board as guarantors is because that is the other means for players to get money.

The posting level on the board has wilted along with prospects. I did read the legal stuff from earlier in week but there was really nothing of note to comment on with the board scrapping with each other. It has some relevance to what could happen as its Steve et al defending themselves from a counter attack by Zaza. The key outcome for now is what happened in the registry case in Georgia and any signs of the transfer reversing or not.

https://www.catalyst-commercial.co.uk/wholesale-gas-prices/

The arithmetic is simple Peak - compared to last year the gas price has rocketed from 10 to 90+ - a 10 bag! So whats in the field is obviously worth more. But even Malcy can't know the volume. But say the recoverable in Elgood is 50% down then since even the well was spuded gas has gone from 40 to 95p (more than doubled). Not looking forward to my next gas fixed price gas contract for home based on this mind!

But we have not seen a commensurate growth in IOG shareprice. Had they come in on this one and not delivered uncertainty on Elgood volume and first gas timing then we should have been romping away.

Whether its a temporary blip will be determined by the next round of news flow. I'm sitting tight but a little anxious for the first time in a while until clarity is restored on reserves in phase 1. That may take time.

Although drilling through Blythe platform does anyone know is that is also a horizontal drill through the reservoir? I guess the Enterprise exploration drill at Elgood was vertical - maybe combined with the better properties encountered that explains the difference with the Enterprise volume.

On Baker Hughes from Monkey link - thats a bit old but they had their hand in Skipper and Harvey. IOG have carried on the review this year - seems to be a separate excercise - you would think CalE involved these days. They were sharp enough to decide to decline a share of Redwell and Harvey.

Peak to be fair even I'm mildly irritated by the RNS. Also they didn't bother to do any media beyond the RNS to promote/explain yet - they obviously don't feel the need or maybe just busy of course.

The issues/delay is all part of the engineering game - but they are making a habit of disappointing on drill and reserves numbers. Following Skipper and Harvey with the drill and the Redwell paper exercise. They seem to have been already looking at this - I can't tell whether this was from 3d review they had been doing (of which more news is due in future) including this well site or whether it was post the drill and before the flow test. Its a bit unclear the way its written.

The result is a puzzle. They hit the zone 39ft deeper than expected - don't know how close this well is to the original exploration drill by enterprise. The difference in flow 57.3 vs 17 mmscfd and the porosity and permeability is also marked. Hence one assumes why they are trying to work out the recoverable and the profile of the production well.

The higher gas prices can to a degree mask any drop in overall volume from the field - most of the production is early and alot in 2022 so that is lucky. But not knowing the overall impact has introduced uncertainty and hence the share price has reacted accordingly. Shame when it could/should have been the catalyst for a re-rate.

It would be unfortunate if the pattern of drill/reserve alteration (downwards) continued as it is starting to chip away at profitability and hence upside. So the quicker they conclude this review the better. It would be nice to see an upgrade - but maybe its just the nature of the assets they have on the books - they are marginal for a reason.

Anyway on we go to the next well.

You find out what you've got by drilling. The question is why the large discrepancy on the permeability and flow of the rock. Apart from the delay due to whatever issues they had seemingly in the tie back post drill which is the contractors domain the question left hanging is how big an impact on the range of reserves and why. Is it the depth of payload or has the permeability allowed more to escape.
The delay to first gas again hopefully would be early Q4 rather than later and if prices continue to rise then the higher revenue offsets the delay.
The offtake agreements presumably get more difficult to finalise if you are less sure of quantum to supply (higher short term but maybe less long term).
It would have been helpful to confirm commercially but having drilled it you would think the bar to commercially is pretty low.
But yes not the unequivocal result you would want.

Phil

The transfer to GC by the registry just looks wrong and always has.

The original security itself with GC likewise was questionable but always had to be conditional given the constraints of the PSA.

The registry followed the lead of the Georgian Govt in 2019 by blocking the transfer on the registry. The Govt added it to the arbitration. The Arbitration ruled in favour of the Georgian interpretation of the PSA in the main that even an internal intra company transfer had to show proof of capability both technical and financial.

Post arbitration FRR having fought to keep the license - no such proof was provided but the government allowed FRR to stay on the license. Then just before FTI executed their liquidation transfer o FTI - FRR tried again and once again the registry rejected it but I did not see FRR furnish any proof of ability or funds approved by State agency which seemed to be the sticking point. Steve needed at that point to show his plan.

Quickly after that and before he had time the FTI transfer and subsequent court case where FEGL (in FTI control and represented by Zaza) resulted in the registry immediately executing the transfer without any obvious proof of funds or technical ability lodged with then change.

That looks wrong and so as long as there has been no behind scenes deal with FTI and the government then its hard to see why it would not be overturned.

FTI plan b was Uniserve. They have more access to technical ability as a oilfield contractor but not funds and their expertise will be limited. The fall back was relinquish to GOGC. Outrider had by the look of it already been deemed as not having the expertise and/or funds hence their letter to the state agency in Q4 2020.

So if its reversed we should see the papers on the registry entry when it happens as per the transfer to GC.

Its what happens next that is important.

Uniserve may be more amenable to a deal with Steve. So that is one road back.

Outrider is now unclear where their best interests lie. We know they have wider issues than just FRR. They could be aligned with FRR progressing through the shares pledged and or the debt.

What has happenned to the debt following the liquidation is unclear. The security clearly could not have settled it.

Steve could give them the shares from treasury (we had 1bn - same for YA they could have shares if they would take them). Zaza shares could be taken maybe or obtained by Outrider separately.
The key then is finding funding to get a campaign and as I've often said once the interested parties are aligned its the balance of equity vs other funding in a restructure. That is same way out as 2018 as its always been - its whether we are wiped out in a restructure or not of what left. And that is what we don't know. The actions of the brokers removing holdings at this time is unhelpful if we ever need to vote.

Phil much as I agree with the sentiment - I have actually met a fair number of the workers who have been axed so do not like being associated with the way they have been treated. It reflects badly on us as shareholders even though we are also casualties of the mismanagement as them.

The problem is as of today and as a direct result of deliberately defaulting on the loans notes combined with to my mind the consequential and unfoldling revelations around Green Capital Frontera at the moment don't actually control the entity that employed the staff or runs the 50% share of Block 12 with GOGC. As of now they have to get the asset back legally before anything can be done. It would be nice to find some money but as of today the company has no cash and no cash generating assets.

The past and current mismanagement simply increases the liklihood of it all being taken back by the Georgians.

If FRR are serious about regaining the asset then as I've posted before they will have to overcome the actions FTI have taken around liquidating the old Frontera entities. Don't forget the batting order FTI agreed was Green, Uniserve then surrender asset back. To date that has not changed and there has been no change on the Georgian registry.

Once that is done they have to show access to funds and a plan to develop the field in what is now a pitifully short license term for wells that have low flow over long period characteristics and where if it was scaled up by even a modest amount the export piping would need building out. But even before then you could end up on the hook for well leak remediation and cleanup and the fields are likely now pillaged of all the portable stores and equipment. The locals dug up and sold the old pipeline for taribani post soviet collapse!

They have to do this while still fighting off multiple law suits, with no bankable reserve estimates and currently with no actual title to the field.

The scale of the challenge even if you were not carrying the baggage FRR is carrying would be immense. The only recent positive has been an increase in oil price. Even the recent litigation is only really at its early stages and set to go on and on. We still have no idea about what has happened to the balance of the defaulted loans since the entity that held the loans Frontera International has been liquidated.

Its a very long way back from here. Easier not to have ended up here.

Star that is exactly my point. Based on looking at the gazette you would think the companies have been either liquidated or struck off.
To determine current status of company you would have to see the current register of companies. They are not in the struck off list in the search on the register.
Being Cayman registered makes everything that little bit more difficult.

I would say ask them to show a Cayman gazette entry or extract from the register showing that. But unfortunately the last entry was FRC would have been wound up due to non payment of the registry fees. But we were assured by the company that the gazette entry for that though posted was never put into effect and the defect was cured.
But short of paying for the extract you can't tell. That's part of the problem the mess around all the litigation and maladmistration and non communication has caused.
But it's a concern we have several nominee holders starting to act possibly off interpretation of the Cayman company register.

The company need to be doing something to demonstrate that they actually still exist. An RNS R saying something would have been something to show nominees. But the company continue down the path of non official communication for reasons that we can only speculate.

Sycic its easy to see why anybody would assume they are worthless. But I have checked the Cayman Gazette and nothing on there since FTI took out the Georgian entity and the bond issuing Frontera International in Feb 2021.

To date since the original strike notice on the parent which we were assured was resolved anybody looking in at available information would assume it is dormant or dead or the strike actually occurred.

I have a significant sum in III so it will be interesting to see how its handled as the ISA shares were never moved back to trading accounts - so has this action written the holding off inside the iSA wrapper (no tax advantage) or outside (potentially usable loss). I have no idea. Seems like a policy/decision within III.

Had they moved to shares to the US entity then they should have published something in the Cayman Gazette for that - but then nothing has been done by the book for several years. Increasingly its like everything is being erased from the public record leaving shareholders with no where to go as all evidence we were ever invested is erased. Can't see how III would know the difference between FRC and FRUS so don't see that as a reason.

The question of whether a share register currently exists - I have to say I have my doubts. The main holding for III would have been in the nominee name and not individual holders. Once the nominee throws in the towel it is a real concern what record there is of the company beneficial share holders within the nominee. I somewhat doubt the company knows the nominee beneficial holders when we have no registrar. But it also complicates possible litigation. If they have set up a register with the beneficial holders then you would think someone would know.

See https://www.sharesoc.org/investor-academy/advanced-topics/nominee-accounts/

So whilst I have personally written this off - the way this is happening is really totally unacceptable. The company should long ago have said something publicly about the basic nuts and bolts of the company. Its such a mess and so unfair on shareholders who supported the company and bought shares through nominee brokers in good faith.

Could be LOG or any of the institutions. Nothing to worry about looks like deck chair re-arranging to me. We have had thin volume and then periods of lumpy transactions few times last couple years. I see LCF/LOG has been in the news again this week. I do wonder how the payments of compensation effect the calculations and actions of the administrators on IOG. Sooner they are gone the better. They must be outside the original orderly disposal period now. But we have had no change in holding for a while.

Key is completing the program on time, safely and to budget to hit 2021/22 winter demand. On that front the distance to the finish is now closing rapidly. So news flow should pick up and should all be positive and hopefully enough to get some forward momentum back into the share price.