Member Info for Moleinahole

Thanks Peak some sense in that if the field is from the north extending would be from Elgood. Maybe they need to demonstrate X months of trouble free flow also down the pipe and onshore facilities. Given IOG track record of things going wrong that also makes sense. Southwark might be nearer some of the other candidates as well.
At least we've ended the week above this 27p support. Have a nice weekend.

All the gas is sold to BP. Wolster is thinking of hedging which makes more sense once the cow is reliable . I assume by offtake what you mean is other companies using the pipeline such as those that used to use threadlethorpe. That was one of the questions I wanted to ask at investor evening but didn't make it. Peak was there was it discussed?

If they are going with a windfall tax and I think they will as ultimately this Tory lot are populist then IOG has plenty of capital expenditure already and next year to reduce the impact. The key would be how long it's left in place and whether targeted at all producers or just the big ones. You would think all. My main beef with that is that then makes UK production taxed higher and that is not fair if non UK can just ship in gas and sell at spot price. If you had capacity would make sense to reduce UK production and ship more in from a lower tax jurisdiction. The levy may have a perverse effect. They could end up not raising as much as they think and reducing supply. They should be incentivising more domestic supply to displace Russia from companies like IOG who to their credit invested in UK when others were shy.

In terms of takeover then yes unused capital allowances are always an added bonus to a predator almost as valuable as cash in the bank.

Dunder the issue I had with the major was that the damage had been done well before the placing that took us to 10p. By then they HAD to do a placing to recapitalise as they had for one spent all the money and needed to meet commitments and secondly actually needed to start paying LOG back before the FID released the loan and CalE were on board. The lack of cash was the bombshell then. I'll admit to not having done enough research into LOG I had originally assumed they must be a reputable vehicle but could find little about them before they imploded so didn't look deeper.

I agree with Peak the reason you enter the no known reason type RNS is when you get unexplained drops. 40% since first gas to me has been close to that territory - the reason it's not is due to the slow motion way it's been pushed down day on day. They held the investor night but really that was also an opportunity then as now to hit the channels with some selling of the proposition. They don't do that but do RNS the slightest issue like the ROV but not the low hanging fruit that the drill is working again and spudded. That is the inconsistency. The reason I think they don't is in my opinion that their main focus is the larger institutions and if I'm charitable are nose to grindstone on the day job and the PR is deemed less important.

I'm frustrated after many years waiting to see forward progress offshore rewarded by a large drop in share price and hence my capital. I did not expect to see the share back at this level and will feel much happier to see it trading up a bit nearer the 44p we have come from. I think that will happen but it's clearly not moving in a straight line.....

Thanks GG they were a bit quicker at Blythe so hopefully they are not rusty after several months of downtime and keen to get it done quickly!

Long term LO are looking for higher prices. Short term they may well be opportunistic. I'm guessing LO are at least in part here due to old SOU connections on the board! LOG worry me more as I don't think they are so interested in the medium to long term. But as GG says the board chose this capital structure and in a presentation last year seemed to see the dilution of the PI holders and growth of institutional holders as an asset! So it was interesting they held a PI event last month.

Gator the 27p level is an obvious support line whether you look at it from a charging or fundamental reason. It's where IOG has pivoted on a few occasions for instance when Skipper was announced and it's the level we dropped from for the placing at 10p post the LOG bombshell. It has then been the level the institutions took shares in the sept 2021 placing and the level just before first gas.
So there should be alot of holders at this level. Dropping through 27p would test those holders nerve seeing profits wiped out and turned to losses. So given the other fundamentals it should be a fairly solid backstop. Below that the 20p area is where LOG would be twitching on their holding. So whilst they have converted at lower prices the 19p and 27/28p area they also converted I believe.

Below 27p would I think be more to do with macroeconomic factors. While IOG and other small caps have been hammered the markets as a whole have not really corrected.

I'm still betting that IOG will ride this out by being in the right sector in the medium term. Short term at the moment anything can happen globally.

The missing tr1 is the seller. LO TR1 was them just picked up some of the sells someone else is regularly unloading. The most likely candidate remains LOG. Would be nice if they stopped for a bit but they seem to have an amount to shift.

In terms of news they have obviously started some of the work on the pipeline per Sailor observations but how long on the first drill before some news are we thinking a 4 week drill? On Southwark no news so far is probably good!

Yep - the magic 27p line where the board gave shares to the institutions. So Lombard have effectively been able to buy at discount at 26p, trade some from 44p and picked them back up at 27p. The missing bit is whether we have other TR1 to come and or LOG declaring anything.

As I've said there is no reason I can see for the size of the drop from 44p. It had to be either institutions or LOG.

I have today exited a stock I've been invested in Russia for nearly 15 years, taken a hit and bought more IOG. I will not be pleased if the board pull any more stunts here but seemed a sensible plan as I think gas will be a hot commodity for next 18 months.

IOG are very vulnerable given their choice of courting institutions of being taken over and can do little to stop it if Lombard and LOG admin agree to an offer.

Without a TR1 it's difficult to work out who is selling.
This 26/27p level is where the institutional investors were gifted shares on the way up. So will be interesting if it holds. They may be buyers at this level if it is LOG selling.
Even though gas price is lower forecast for next year remains strong compared to planning baseline. Wider market is obviously wobbly but a commodity producer like IOG should be well placed to ride out and benefit.
So the drop seems totally unjustified since first gas from everything we know.
The wildcard of a potential takeover means trying to trade is risky and it's been moving down gradually.
This area should support the price as it's also the range IOG were at before the great institutional giveaway when the LOG disaster unfolded.

Let's see how today goes.

Dunderhead not stupid I just think many of us just did not see the RRE offer as an offer!
They were trying to get it on the cheap via LOG. They never got to the point of offering anything to shareholders.

LOG if they are selling have already extracted plenty, have plenty of loan left and a bundle of shares worth more than the 20p RRE envisaged. They have done better.
Shareholders could have done better than RRE by selling on first gas. But since first gas we have had this aberration.

The risk LOG pose was on display when RRE approached and is obvious again.
The management fault is allowing them to build such a dependency on LOG that should never have happened and in my opinion wasting alot of the money that was raised from them anyway.

We are now where we are. But having a shareholder with little or no interest beyond recovering funds at prices over 19p and with the main stakeholders they serve being paid out of the FCS is an absolute pain. I'm not happy but I will stick this out but some clarity on LOG or if not then why the drop is needed.

Well 26p would leave the institutions from last raise in sept out of pocket. Doubt they will be pleased either with current share price. I would say the board must be close to having to comment on the drop to confirm whether they are aware of any reason.

Duster in short we don't know.

Market uncertainty and gas price pullback does not explain why an already under an already under under valued share in an in vogue sector has dropped so much on first gas. The only logical explanation is either an institutional seller or more likely LOG. That being the case it would mean there is no fundamental reason on the business side to justify such a mark down that we know about.

Be interesting to see where it turns and when we get a TR1.

Who knows.
Does anyone think the drop from 44p to under 30p is due to anything other than LOG? They seem the most likely not only culprit to me. Whether it's the option or loan note or the share holding it matters little. The net effect is we have a broadly disinterested holder of stock inclined to sell and little or no interest in the business beyond what they can get out ( and they are already in profit).

LOG have done very well out of IOG already. They are a problem that should never have occured. The mix of loans, options and warrants they have been given has without doubt weighed down the share. Phase 1 has ultimately been paid for by the farm out, bond and institutional raised inspite of LOG whose security on loans was an impediment to FID! Alot of the LOG money was squandered.
Getting rid of them however is not straight forward outside a buyout.
Had IOG hit a first gas date closer to Q3 2021 than end Q1 2022 the coffers would have been fuller at least increasing the chance of buying back the shares or debt. Missing the best gas prices in a generation has been a very costly miss. Those who subscribe to the view FID to first gas has still been good forget the delays to FID and that the pipeline and facility being in place should have meant it was quicker than normal!

The Q4 date for Southwark after the missed targets for first gas in 2021 must not be repeated. They should be going all out now to pull that date in or reliably hitting it. The LTIP's should be strongly linked if they have too have them to concrete dates/budget and delivery.

Terrible weak for IOG share price very frustrating to go under 30p. Yes the market is down but IOG should have been better placed than many to ride it out being in the right sector at right time. Offer to buy probability increases with each drop. No change we know of to the underlying business case and profitability of IOG but that won't matter unless the slide in share price is stopped it will be bought out and one fears with LOG and Lombard holding significant portions at a price well under the fincap target.

I think we are at an important price point. I've thought for a while LOG would sell down to 33p area to raise the @£8m I think they need to convert. That keeps them under 30% and gives them some cash derisked and plenty of upside.
If the selling goes on and under 33p then I'd suspect the institutions who are in profit as a result of the two placings they took at 26p and 10p.

As for the RNS for a change no bad news! The continuing down times in the early weeks on top of the original delay has really hit the revenue only minor negative. Southwark is 6 months plus late depending on how you interpret the Q4 date could be more but that delay is now baked in. The rig went there in Oct 2020. It's a small pipeline extension and should really have been online in time for all the 2022/23 winter season.
The talk of a gas tax on producers doesn't help but IOG will have plenty of cost to offset first but I do think that is weighing it down a bit as is the wider context. The gas interconnector issue, LPG supply and UK prices being below Europe last month has been 'overlooked" on the media coverage as it doesn't fit the narrative! But we have clearly not benefitted from the high gas pricing and a golden opportunity has been missed.
I would say Southwark has gone back a bit but would need to read what they last said on it.
Condensate is good news and the seabed is stable.
It's ridiculous to be at the level we were last sept pre a producing asset and well under any sensible price.
It's a mix for me of the LOG overhang both when they sell and the threat of sells and the fact IOG has totally lost momentum in terms of share price direction. I still can't quite believe it's still falling since first gas. If it carries on someone else will be turning on Southwark not IOG as they will be bought.

Dunderhead even allowing for the issues of past year and anything one may think of the management's short comings and luck over past couple of years it's plain daft that when I turn on the news and hear about an energy crisis for a company that is producing said product to find itself below the price it was before producing and we'll below the asset value.

Short term we all know we have an exceptional dead weight of LOG. The MM may move this a bit but ultimately selling an in demand product will generate cash. If the share price does not respond then someone will do the sums and buy the company and jetison LOG in the process.

That is what will happen here if it stays heavily discounted. I am surprised we are not seeing a bigger rise triggered by the macro economic picture.

It's very frustrating watching the performance so far this year. We should be back in the 40p to 50p area or above. But the capacity to keep delivering problems from left field and the II selling really does not help get any momentum.

At least no bad news yet from Southwark.....legs down, rov working, rig not wobbling about......

DELT down 10%. All the same BP might be down 4% but the puzzle with IOG is that it is under valued and not benefited from the run up first. So it should hold its value as there is no reason we know of for IOG to be at this level.

GG looking at one of the Southwark RNS is a third well also required in future?
As they are drilling through the platform are they all from that or is the additional one a tieback and at a different location away from the platform?

Lemming one of my observations from the presentation was the 2023 plan. It looks thin and certainly not capital heavy. So I suspect they will indeed try to pay down the debt. Sept is the earliest they can look to do that. Would need to work out what we have and have not paid for in 2022 program to see how much free cash we really have this year. I think they will accumulate this year and pay for 2022 activity out of that rather than the option to draw more on the loan. Interest rates will be interesting going forward.

If it's LOG still selling then it's not in their interest to drive it under 33p as then their option is worthless.
It's an unusual situation when a company is cash positive in an in demand sector with strong cash flows to not only be trading under its NAV but also to be still dropping.
Apart from LOG it's hard to fathom unless someone is trying to accumulate on the cheap and the MM are hunting for shares.
The wide spread could indicate either.

Very frustrating.

Out of interest how long are we thinking on the Southwark drill? Blythe was quicker than planned, Elgood longer due to issues. They are obviously due to commence the work on the pipeline extension which won't take long at 6km. Just trying to think through the timings on this now while we drift. Is it a single drill or is there not more than 1 well at Southwark? The RNS imply more than 1.

Peak I don't think it's aimed at you. There is a considerable pent up frustration in many cases with some justification and the reverse in share price since a late first gas and issues does not help. LOG is a real problem and the best defence is progress and cash generation. That however does make us even more tempting for a predator. I think they will carry on but I think that the chances of a lowish offer around 55 to 60p from any cash rich entity is high. That is of course higher than here. I just get the feeling that is what they may be angling for hence my observation of how sparse 2023 looks on the plan.
It's a buy all day at this level I've however already royally supported the board on the way down and have alot more stake than I should here. We have progressed but share price wise find ourselves almost back to where we were in sept 2021 before the discounted placing and placing no value on the progress that has been made.

Peak from a quick perusal of the slide deck nothing especially new.

We knew about the new licensing round the question is whether you got the impression they had some possible targets in mind.

I'd broadly agree with trying to put the mistakes of the past behind. However, the LOG situation has proved to be very problematic. In addition the decision to actively grow the institutional investors to the point you have them and their holdings such as Lombard with LOG posing an easy path to a takeover at the right price is precisely why the delays have been so costly and risk a takeover at a lower price and why giving them discounted placings simply increases the risk.

I'd slightly take issue around the claim they have been quick. It should of course have been 6 months sooner but the FID decision was put off and put off originally when it should have been closed out alot earlier and cash squandered.

The tone of your post reading between the lines would be that IOG are at significant risk of being subject to a bid that may be hard to resist. That is exactly what we have debated here many times. Any bid would have to be up nearer the broker valuations but under what it could be if they finish the 2022 programme. 2023 from the slides is a breather year before further major activity in 2024.

Pleased the drill is turning at Southwark.

Disappointed not to have made the evening just couldn't be sure of making my train.