Member Info for Moleinahole

I guess alot depends on expectations! There is IOG plan deck at 45p and still gas prices at 600p which govt based alot of the bailout on. Anything in the 200 to 300p is good still just not astronomic. The LNG shipments aren't new either that was a factor earlier in year. Sooner we get some indication on Southwark we can take stock of what has been a disappointing year. Come on IOG the drill must be nearly done now. So some revised guidance now we have entered Q4 would be welcome.

Given the opportunity they have to apply but the delays in phase 1 mean they need to balance the need for prospects which is essential as IOG has insufficient reserves at the moment with the ability to deliver on commitments. IOG to date have been poor explorers. So hopefully something someone else has already drilled and not taken forward for whatever reasons.

They can't hedge alot until they get consistent reliable production. The fact that they even did some indicates the Elgood production is stable to a level accept for the trips they seem to still be getting and the Bacton maintenance window.
Be interesting to see what they go for in licensing round but a while before we hear anything on that.
Come on IOG some Southwark news must be due.

Aligator no Southwark is on the way down and a common issue that is resolved all the time as a drilling problem.
Blyth being in the reservoir itself is a totally different problem. If water is getting into the reservoir then as viti says maybe they work over or redrill but I thought there were some clever injection solutions these days to try and resolve issues but I guess alot depends on where the fissure is. Can they seal a small section? Redrill sounds a bit drastic on a smallish field. Hence as Viti says the short to medium term solution is to handle the fluids on lower volume.
Be interested as you say in comments from GG and Pipe.

Aligator really don't see anything in the RNS that if known would cause a rise. The reality I think is that it's well oversold in a favourable sector so was due a bounce anyway. At least there was nothing new to indicate the problems were terminal. For all the problems they are producing. I think Blythe is just going to limp along now the most important news now is Southwark update. If they can get that away without any more problems and move the rig onto the other prospects we have something to look forward to and the share will have a chance to build again from this base. They really have been lucky with the gas pricing as these issues at planning deck would not have been good. We are 4 to 5 times the plan deck price so inspite of the higher costs and lower volumes they are not far off where we would have been in a lower price environment if not slightly ahead. Of course it would have been better to hit this environment with higher volumes but sadly that didn't happen.

Aligator on Blythe I think they have said all they can. The short to medium term strategy is to produce at low volume and try and process onshore to compensate. The long term fix it there is one will need more investigation.
Southwark they have chosen to hold back. This release was a production update. Southwark seems like it will now be a separate update.
I don't think there is anything especially leaky about the trades. This has been bashed down in large part in my opinion by PI holders selling. Technically it was well oversold and I think you are seeing them and other bottom feeders buy back.

I'm pleased they have updated even if it has really confirmed the heresay on the problem. We do at least have more information to digest.
Clearly Blythe is going to limp along until they have a plan of what to do down hole. I don't know whether they can do an intervention from the platform and how you would seal a section like that. But as I've said before pre Southwark it makes sense to produce what they can and come up with a longer term solution.
I guess alt depends on where this fissure is. Is it possible the well will always have to have liquids managed and run at lower rates.
Odd that Southwark gets no mention. Can read that either way.
They are still generating cash but this Blythe issue really is a pain.

Doubt news leaking out. More likely those who have sold on the way down need/want to rebuy (they have effectively shorted the company) and at this level any hint of them sorting the problems out and with the work in progress it's a great buying opportunity in a favourable sector. Knowing how fast IOG can move won't take much to get to mid 20's.
The issue is it should never have got to this level in the first place and that is in large part the boards fault as a result of the wording and presentation In the last RNS. That RNS is why they needed to follow up not the wider market volatility. The issues have created trading opportunities to get against IOG.

Calm down folks it's been a bad day from a bad month since the RNS so passions will run high. Peak and others who are out you are very fortunate as you have effectively traded this now with the possibility of doubling your holding for nothing or going elsewhere. Those of us who have held I think can reasonably feel aggrieved at the turn of events. Of all the sectors to be in given the macro news this is the one for winter 2022 . There is not going to be much gas from Russia this winter. So the fact IOG has been severely hammered for the problems in phase 1 makes it all the harder to digest.
The whole market is all over the place. IOG are in the bunker and don't seem in a hurry to come out again. They will and I think reasonably soon as they must be near on Southwark even allowing for the loss of mud and they really have no excuse to come out and say something then. I'll be dropping them a mail with my own thoughts fairly soon. It's clearly the unknown production volume and prognosis for Blythe and whether they are very late with Southwark that's the problem. Until they clarify that the share is adrift in a choppy sea. What we don't want to hear is something else about Southwark beyond some mud loss when they next decide to communicate.

Scored IOG now finds itself share price wise back to levels and priced more like a speculative explorer!
The elephant in room for IOG has to start to be conversations about the euro bond. It should not have been an issue but higher costs and spluttering production means it has to start to be talked about.
They need to get Southwark onstream quickly now as they need to get cash in to reduce that debt. What was the interest rate on the bond would need to check back on some RNS. As for the new chancellor what a complete amateur. Unqualified for the job.

Thanks sailor for posting that from the real world.
Absolutely shocking that the board have allowed this to drift to this level I thought Fiona should go even before we had dropped to this level yet again. LOG admin must be having kittens. Is this drop a ploy to bounce them out one wonders by frightening them or is this really just the buyers from the previous drop and rise being shaken out? The shares are going somewhere. Surely they will have to cut losses soon or are they going to take risks with the LOG pot? Is it that putting pressure on the share in addition to the ongoing problems?
The activity at Blythe is interesting unless the salty fluid is clogging up the pipes! Nice to find out what the plan is. The sooner we get a positive comment on Southwark the better. The rest of phase 1 has become a lability as much as an asset. Got to be an RNS soon either that or they can get on to proactive or malcy with some spin. But they seem to have retreated into a bunker.

The problem this time Wolster is the problem and it's impact is less well defined and seemingly down hole. So it's not like the last problem where they could fix it onshore. They must be close to a drill milestone on Southwark. That still seems the most likely next RNS. The damage has been done now to the share price. It's now adrift in the choppy market.

Mikodx your potentially very fortunate to get an entry at this level. Many of us have lower averages but have had to endure a very painful journey littered with problem after problem many self inflicted and a bitter taste watching the share price half on first gas. But you need to be careful the current share price is really nothing to do with inflation or Ukraine.
It is here because the board have failed to successfully complete phase 1 of the project by delivering a consistent producing asset. Until we know exactly what is wrong with what should have been a trouble free well at Blythe production and hence cash is not reliably predictable. The next well Southwark should materially improve matters and is due n Q4 but they have chosen to confuse and cast uncertainty on that with a badly worded RNS as well.
So you can buy low because the board have delivered phase 1 late and still not functioning as planned. The only reason we are not currently in trouble is the high inflated gas price.
The way out is through clarity on the issues at Blythe, confirmation of no further stops to production and adding Southwark production with no further problems.
If they do that then 22p is a great entry price. The board continue to fail to deliver for long term holders who endured several years of pain here and the problems of the past 2 years are no longer a source of mirth but cast serious questions over the boards competence in the execution, planning and supervision of the work programme. Bad luck is wearing thin as an excuse.
We await the next news with trepidation as for every step forward something left field is announced leaving you wondering what can go wrong next. I hope you are a lucky investor as we need a change of fortune.

Wolster if they have worked out a solution then they can RNS. If they have not then an RNS that says that would be interesting but not help the share price.
Hence why I suspect they will update once they have something positive from Southwark and have the option of adding that update. If they had positive news you would hope they had issued it! If fixing involves shutting in the well - I hope they could produce from the field not showing the issue else you definitely wouldn't touch it till Southwark onstream.
Hence the status quo of handling the fluids on reduced volume makes sense to me. At some stage they will have to bite the bullet on it if it needs a down hole intervention.
So as lower flow is what they say they are doing for the moment I can see why no RNS at moment. That's my rationale not whether I'd like more information! I'd love to know the status and proposed approach. But I just think they will do that alongside other news.

Scored it's moving with the general direction of the market plenty of stocks doing this! The wider market is out of the control of the company. They can only update when they have something to report. I remain of view they will update next when a milestone reached on Southwark. Hopefully they are engaged also in spotting license applications with CalE.
It is a tough market at moment but IOG are in the right sector.

Aligator I share the same trepidation when a red dot arrives and I agree there are issues at a board level. Hence my comment other day that I think the chair is not right for the company I was not pleased to have anyone else associated with Sou energy or Mr Parsons on any company I have an interest in and I simply don't know if we have the right technical focus on the board or management level.
All I'm saying is from where we are they are only going to RNS when they have something to say. I hope it's sooner and good news. We will get Southwark news and may get an update on salinity but the pattern of how they handle news is now very predictable. They must be well advanced now on the 2nd well even with unspecified delays.

Aligator so if there is no update on the salinity would you rather they issue an RNS to say no update yet?
In terms of when given they reiterated production a month before it's a reasonable assumption something changed in July. Remember before that they were constrained by a different fluid handling problem due to higher than expected condensates. Are the two related in some way? Clearly they were not running at full steam until that Bacton fix was in place and the salinity seems to have become an issue post that event.
As we know so little about the salinity issue it is still very hard to draw any conclusions and that uncertainty combined with trading the share has amplified the drop.
If they came back with a half baked RNS without something clear to say then that would not be a good idea. The last one was bad enough. It needs to be credible.
Timing and materiality really are the key we simply don't know at what point the salinity reached a point that the H2 guidance had to change. You assume weeks but in reality it could have been shorter. The clue it might have been longer was the drop in share price before it was lifted by MM to get LOG some funds away to then again amplify the drop. The damage has been done by the last RNS as much because it was hoped we had got past the teething issues. As long as they continue to be inside the guidance like or not they don't have to report further and I don't think they will.
Once they have a better idea on the salinity they will no doubt say something but I just don't think they will say much from past experience. The pattern (not very good) of news management here is well established. But as I've said before I don't think the bigger stakeholders in CalE, LOG or LO will be pleased at the performance over the last 2 years.

Dunder the question of when to report things is always a judgement call.
The point I'm making is that they have issued a new guidance you have to go with it until they choose to issue new guidance. The nature of the operational type issues IOG are experiencing while I'm not impressed and would have liked some updates I can see why you can't get a running commentary. It of course should not be required but if it's not materially changed since the other week then they won't update. We have debated this so many times where they are at now if they have good news they need to get it out there as soon as possible without it a further update saying same as last time just won't help. Interesting but won't help the share price.
Good news on salinity, better news on Southwark like a positive date might. Otherwise I can see why they would say little.

Peak if production had stopped then they should RNS. It's been stop start since day 1. Having RNS a revised guidance so recently even by IOG standards it would be poor to have stopped completely but daily production obviously has and will continue to fluctuate until they have got to grips with the issues and you simply can't provide a running commentary to the market on that The share has shown insiders seem know in advance of trouble at Bacton. So I'd say as of today nothing has changed.
Still don't think we will hear anything till they reach a reportable milestone on Southwark. They then may update on other matters.

Thanks GG so they are pretty much separated. So should there be an issue that was not quickly resolvable they could proceed with one well. The original plan was a 3rd well I seem to remember at some point. So the issue is the delay means the Drill rig is there longer than they want before they can frac.
So as long as they have some flexibility in the dates for the follow on once the drill rig is moved the delay can only be low weeks? So Q4 seems still possible.
With the Ukraine situation taking dramatic turns getting it online this winter is very important. The license round will be interesting with the pipeline extending further out and the potential extensions they must have some potential targets in mind. That and any development to reroute the old threddlethorpe stranded assets or prospects offer another possible route either by IOG or others using the facilities.