Member Info for Moleinahole

Mcsquare that is my point. Had larger holders or everyone joined in the price would have gone to suspension not just dropped.
I'm personally not prepared after multiple years supporting the company through placings and holding while giveaways were done to LOG and institutions to risk more and certainly not enough to make it worthwhile. Spreading risk to other shares makes far more sense when i've been building a position over multiple years here to see it basically trashed in a month allowing entry at low price. Post the grief we have suffered supporting the company is exactly why I'm angry with the board. I should not need to be looking to average down at this stage in the company odyssey I was hoping to be enjoying top slicing!

Buying to bring your average down or in some case up in a large long term holding is not going to make alot of difference unless you want to put more capital at risk.
What one should of done is join in the general sale that pushed the price down in the first place from 40p and bought back same amount or more at no cost.
In other words join in the general short of the company that pushed the price to 7p and has attracted traders and short term profit seekers.
To bring stability to the share price was one the reasons touted as why the institutions were beneficial to alter the balance of the share register. That has not happened. Interesting we have had no TR1 yet. So the larger institutional holders are in the same boat as me at least. The board taking advantage of the drop to do some tax planning of the salary sacrifice is interesting in ticking over but doesn't really change anything hence we are at this base waiting proper news.
To say I'm angry with the board at the moment is an understatement.

Wolster it feels like a binary but it's not quite that bad yet but it is continually reducing the upside and risking further downside. It's that risk/ reward balance that they have destroyed from 44p to 18p and then to 7p. Even if A2 has more issues they will drain Elgood of 4bcf of gas and continue with Blythe unless the salinity gets so bad that becomes hard to manage. The bond has a way to run and then they could move onto Nailsworth. So if the concern is funds then they have income to draw on. Of course that is dependent on robust gas pricing. They would have been in alot of trouble at original price deck pulling this year's stunts. The bond will be a bigger issue in 2024 if they don't get Southwark away with good flows from any of the wells. But I think the issue would more be how to pay for the bond and future exploration/development commitments.
The issues with Southwark and length of time to resolve is just puzzling. The loss of drilling mud really is not unusual. The time to sort it out is a surprise. It's been a disaster from the moment the rig legs broke last October, to the rov issues in Dec, to the seabed scouring in Jan and finally fluid loss drilling July and a faulty valve sept. The scouring and fluid loss yet have been calibrated risks - the other mechanical issues can't just be bad luck it's too frequent. But at the end of the day it's what's in the reservoir that counts. A below par flow and reduction of reserves again would be very unwelcome but not terminal either.

The problem is one of confidence.

Dunder having a shareholder group will in my opinion have no effect here. The bigger stakeholders here hold the cards and have undountably flexed their muscle. We became somewhat insignificant when they decided to pay for skipper with LOG money (and blow it) and then use the large amount of placing money on Harvey(and blow that as well). That fundamentally changed the share register and with CalE as partner on 50% they are the key stakeholders.
I saw yesterday someone posted on the capex. How much of the 77m is already sunk cost and paid for? I'm guessing a large part. They don't need that much to keep going but they can't afford to keep increasing costs and under performing revenue through delays and reserve reductions.
The non offer by RRE is ancient history. If someone came back I though the highest price in past 12 months was required to buy out any shares they don't get in market. Given over 50% is with 2 holders its always been a risk. Hence my comment LOG and LO would I think take that sort of price if offered. The price crash has loosened shares which could come into play here but the way to take IOG is to talk to the institutions and get them on board at whatever price and it's a done deal. For the same reason the PI holders don't greatly matter.

The obvious next RNS is the frac vessel on way to Southwark. The Bacton shutdown will happen. Next is the fix to the faulty valve. So we should be able to see vessels on location repairing that in next week or so once the shutdown starts. So those can both be RNS but equally we can watch progress there on Marine track.
Beyond that an RNS for the restart and or completion and something confirming some flows post frac of Southwark before confirmation of a Dec first gas date or not. They could surprise if they have found more capacity for Blythe liquids handling or a timeline to do it. They have also said very little about licensing round and other prospects like Nailsworth and or plans for the next prospective drill with the rig so there is scope there for an update.
So it balancing the risk of potential issues with Southwark. Surely that is priced in at moment but the upside is not.
And I agree it remains very much a takeover target at this share price inspite of the issues.

From a short term share price view we have reached the first interesting level. Where the MM gapped down to on the first RNS and where it recovered to pre the Director buy RNS after the dip down. It's also the level where the institutions were let in a few years ago in the placing post LOG debacle.
So the level has reasons.
Meanwhile in the real world I hope the new COO is rapidly assessing the situation on the ground while the CEO deals with the fallout at a corporate level. Still finding its level but this should have a chance of holding and forming a base to recover from if they sort out the operations. Personally I'm hugely disappointed post first gas to see this share price as I think are all the major stakeholders so IOG board will know that the time for dawdling along and accepting costly mistakes needs to end.
Let's see where we finish today the swings are getting smaller so it's settling.

Bixy as i posted this morning there are as with any share holders with different time horizons. I've been here too many years to actually count. Since last week we now have traders and carpet baggers who have a horizon seldom longer than a T20 and often close by a Friday or as soon as the momentum stops the rise.
They are here not for the company but for a very short term gain.
The company has now created a dynamic in the share price I would prefer not to have been created through their ineptitude operationally and poor PR.
It will take a while to find the level but in the short term we now have market makers pushing and pulling the price to see what the traders who bought from 7p to 13p do. The uncertainty caused by why it was at 7p from 44p in the first place means that it is likely to take a while to settle. Long term the trajectory should be back towards 44p - I think the higher prices are now going to be much harder to achieve without concrete numbers and stopping the constant operational setbacks which have seriously damaged confidence. A proper worked broker note will be interesting reading and overdue. Last one was 66p target.
The headwinds remain same as they have been for a while. The pipeline fix should be done next month. Blyth will carry on producing but constrained until they have additional liquid handling capacity in place. Southwark they say mid Dec for being online. Short of a bid coming in to try and get the assets at a low price (44p for instance) other than the harshness of the drop there is nothing operationally due that I can see would fundamentally change the status quo. We may hear the fracking vessel is mobilised but we can track that ourselves on marine track and even production volumes if they close to hold back can be found. It's the problems in the geology and things that keep breaking we can't watch outside an RNS and that are hurting.

The current share price for the moment will have little to do with the company.
Having crashed it down and attracted traders it will now be traded around the edge of the core holding which is largely unchanged. That will be both by market makers and those who have sought to profit by the drop. MM will try and test resolve of traders some of whom will be T20 traders.
That as much as anything is the consequence of the sequence of events and RNS the board have managed to deliver.

I would however like confirmation from company if the rig is staying on Southwark or whether they made any plans to move to next location and come back. I'm guessing it's just going to stay there. It would also be interesting to know a bit more on Southwark whether they have put something in the well to fix the losses hence the waiting to cure or whether they are still looking at the best solution/option for A1. They always have the A3 option as I think Southwark was originally planned to be 3 wells.
Either way we have a week or so till Bacton shutdown and then 2 to 4 weeks of work replacing parts and connecting Southwark. I guess the fracking vessel may have been booked to align with Bacton shutdown so maybe that is next news.
See what level it settles at and whether we get any TR1 this week.

Whilst it's good they have bought to restore confidence it's actually scandalous they have been able to through their own ineptitude.

Round results are a bit away I think possibly Jan.

Citizen they say they have. If not then the rest should be walking as well as we need a pipeline with more reserves as Elgood and Blyth and Harvey and Redwell before that have demonstrated.
There remains the possibility of others wanting to use the pipeline once they fix it after the shutdown and fix that remains a future medium term option. Some of those could be in play this round. CalE should also be looking.
This has been bashed very harshly. But as I posted earlier the fault there lies squarely with the poor framing and positioning of RNS.

Wolster it shouldn't have been at 20p either is the answer to that!
It's hard to price at the moment due to the uncertainty they have caused through the series of RNS. But it's not 7p or 10p. Alot of that bad news should have been priced in at 20p anyway a small drop while they worked through was probably justified but to take it to 7p?

IOG has historically had tightly held shares by long term and loyal PI investors.
The free float normally comes only if one of the institutions who were gifted cheap shares sells.
The chaos of the last few days has been engineered but enabled by the boards incompetence in PR and unacceptable failures in operations.
Nice as it is for people coming in and taking advantage as a long term investor of this company watching this whip saw about just makes me more angry with those who are responsible.

Indeed the kind of missing part of yesterday grim RNS which just lacked any perspective or optimism and contributed to an unjustified harsh drop.
PR gaps, operational short comings and poor geological interpretation have been persistent issues. I'm guessing LOG and LO and messages from PI worried by the drop have brought them out of the bunker. It had already rattled down from 44p and broker estimates was in the 60's.
7p was just crazy.

It's beyond shocking considering the company has in a stuttering way progressed into production. It's 80% down on an already discounted price that prices none of the future prospects either.
It's all do with a total loss of confidence in the boards ability to deliver.
We started Southwark a year ago. It's ridiculous it's taken so long. The rig should have been long gone onto the other prospects by now and the company banking significant cash.
The constant problems from what they have delivered and constant paring back of the numbers while the gas price has been at record levels has been a huge disappointment.
The drop from 20p was so sudden it's trapped institutions and PI's. It clearly looking at the posts also attracted traders looking for a bounce and profit. As a long time and now pretty angry shareholder that has supported the company through thick and thin seeing the price at 7/8p post first gas in a time of record gas prices is scandalous. It's way undervalued but the company is now carrying a huge discount due to constant operational failures. They have proved incapable of delivering any news over past 2 years without at same time undermining their credibility by then releasing something that casts doubt over the viability of what they are doing or holding back on some critical news. Take yesterday they must have known about Elgood and Blythe weeks ago. Southwark they knew 2 weeks ago but chose to hold back and try and force the drill by sounds if it.
The problem is largely one of credibility so the new team have work to do to sell the concept again.
What IOG does show to me is why the case for a windfall tax on small producers is so wrong. A headline of investors lose money trying to produce North sea assets won't be fashionable but is a timely reminder to govt that investors bear significant risks exploring these remnant fields in North sea and their risk f capital should not be taken for granted.

Why do they need a placing?
Placing will only come into play if southwark doesn't hit a December date and even then I would hope they have enough cash to carry on.
The issue is you can't keep revising numbers down every few weeks and pushing dates out. The extra 2 weeks shutdown on top of Bacton (in November of all times) obviously knocks a short term hole in the cashflow but a placing at this price makes no sense and I doubt the institutions and LOG admin either would support first due to dilution and second risk.
No this one is due to basic non delivery which has cost the 2 people in charge of operational matters their jobs. The way out is to stop the errors. The new COO from a quick search makes the right comments and has relevant experience. Be interesting to see how he goes about fixing IOG.

One suspects that the institutional stakeholders have finally lost patience and were seriously displeased with the latest RNS which was the final straw. Whether that was CalE, LOG or the likes of LO or all of them I suspect doesn't matter. What small investors think they don't greatly care about.
I still think it's oversold but it's going to take some incremental steps delivering positive news on a regular basis to start to recover confidence.
Yesterday RNS was so bad it helps the new CEO and operations lead. But they now have to get the misfiring contractors and suppliers working. Going forwards they also need to have a careful look at who has been analysing the prospects. The mechanical issues combined with the geological surprises is what is hurting.

Well I've had a long day at work today so had to e to reflect a bit on the RNS.
My first reaction was and still is disbelieve that they managed to wrap up in one RNS problems with every field and the pipeline.
Elgood: that was the news I had half expected after the initial drill results showed they didn't find what they had expected. That they have extracted more than half of its gas in 6 months and it's now declining was disappointing.
That increased the importance of Blythe and Southwark.
Blyth we now know in addition to the fluid salinity issues the well is in a compartment that is not connected to potential accumulations on the flanks. Why did 3d seismic not show this? Whether drilling/sidetracking is viable to get at the other parts of Blyth is I guess unknown. Given Blyth stop start production dropping production forecast for H2 again hurts. Part decline in Elgood and part a further mechanical issue this time with the valve at Southwark. I don't understand why there is not shutoff between Blyth and Southwark to enable the valve to be replaced.
How on earth have we ended up with a defective valve? It's only been installed a few months! 4 weeks to fix seems alot the extra 2 weeks lost production hurts. But why do we keep getting these equipment failures? We have only just had the injection faults sorted and seem to still have the intermittent tripping issues. Following the problems during Elgood drilling, Southwark failures with the rig, ROV, scouring and the previous liquids handling issues at Bacton you really have to question what is going on with the operational side. The catalogue of problems are ridiculous and raise major questions.
Then Southwark. I asked GG a while back whether it was an option to put 1well live and come back to the second. I can't tell from todays RNS what the sequence is. Are they moving the rig to next target and come back or are they leaving it for X weeks idle? There was no mention today about the next exploration targets or Nailsworth. It sounds like the rig is staying at Southwark.
No mention of costs.
So they have decided to finally bring out all the bad news in one RNS.
The only positive is we have a chance of some gas from Southwark in Q4.
There simply can't be any more surprises Fromm Southwark.
Short term they continue to produce albeit at reduced volume and with a 4 week halt. So money is coming in. They have time to sort out the problems and if we do get a funding round then I'd be really disappointed in the board.
So today has taken the company several steps back and cast a very long shadow that is going to take time and some RNS that delver some good news to clear.
The damage has been done. LOG admin must be seriously worried now. The board should be very worried now that a cheap offer comes in and throws them all out. The RNS was bad but still leaves significant gaps in understanding. The loss of revenue and material uncertainty continues to plague IOG.

So Elgood reserves down to basically 1 year production left, Blythe reduced as well and no resolution to the issues, Southwark 1 of 2 wells suspended and drilling issues not resolved.
Pipeline to shut in 4 weeks to fix yet another faulty component.
The only good news was a date for the 1 remaining well at Southwark. Not sure whether the means 2nd well left while rig sent to next location to find some reserves. That becomes critical now to find some.
Unbelievable RNS. The geology of all 3 fields is showing why they have been left in the past. The continued technical issues are just ridiculous and again proving expensive.

It's cheap for a reason or two!
But I do think it's been severely punished for understandable and quantifiable reasons. The next news needs to be positive. I don't think we need any more bad news we are due a run of good news to even it out.
I keep coming back to how the drop will have effected LOG calculus. They now find themselves not in a good place having chosen to broadly stay put. Pressure will be on the board big time I think if they don't deliver Southwark in a working condition and shareholders (most now institutions due to the boards preferred capital structure plus LOG) will be looking for answers. CalE and the bond holders will be equally unimpressed.
We can tell roughly what's going on from the marine track and over time the reported volume. So it's fingers crossed

Dunder I'd say it's drifting. But yes it's edging down like everything else. The numbers are interesting but not what they should have been. Sentiment is against IOG at the moment. It's the sept number we could do with to see how it's going likely track sideways at that level. Southwark now will be what generates volume.