Member Info for Moleinahole

GG that would be a reasonable assumption to make. It may well be correct but with IOG you can't be so sure.
After 2 months drilling surely they have hit the reservoir by now? How deep are they drilling at Southwark?

True Edgar. The problem is we can't be sure what volume they are pumping. The way the share price has behaved you would think we were selling Russia vodka not British gas.
There is clearly still one of our large institutional or LoG sellers.

It's the lack of visibility and certainty caused by not just IOG issues but also the crazy situation with LNG imports and lack of pipe and storage capacity.
But whichever way you look at it confirming as soon as possible that we are producing again at volume and consistently is very important. Southwark is making me a bit nervous since they have chosen to not update at all on that since the restart.

Fibbles we are frustrated because the last 6 months problems are on top of previous problems that go back several years. Having waited years for delivery and having backed the company through the thin times I feel pretty entitled to be annoyed at the last 6 months catalogue of problems. When they are added to relinquishing high COS fields and reserve write offs paid for by discounted placings in same year it is poor.

What do you attribute the past years failures to or do you seriously think the board are currently doing a good job? If you are a new holder who has the opportunity to buy at this level I can see why you may think it's great.

There are large sellers because of the boards past decision on funding and preferential placings to bring the large sellers in the first place. Halving the share price post first gas is not acceptable as a shareholder of the company. End of.

Aligator we obviously don't know and the milestone of being 50% off first gas share price and a third of broker rating paints a grim picture.
We have Southwark drilling that I pray has not found any sort of issue that must have reached a point where there is something to say. The pipeline is clearly underway and Bacton fluid handling should be resolved by now. They are supposed to be surveying this quarter as well. The injection fault we wait to hear of a permanent fix so that remains a risk. Stable flow is allusive to forecast but I don't want any more reserve adjustments (Elgood post drill reassement is long overdue)
It's now hard to work out where the company is actually at. They should be in a strengthening financial position but it's hard to be sure now as the cost have gone up and revenue has failed to materialise in any predictable way. Even when we are providing do could not bad luck strikes with low UK to Euro spot price issues due to a glut of LNG and no storage.
In the background LOG admin guys must be equally frustrated now. Are they selling to convert at the moment? If not their conversion exit strategy at 22p is not what they would have hoped for.
I don't think any stakeholders will be happy at the past 6 month performance.
If there is further 'frustrating' news then the share price will be under real pressure and the board should start to take the drop seriously.
I think they will turn it around still but I'm not pleased.
50/50 the drop is being oiled by something LOG related as opposed to yet more trouble with operations. Sentiment has taken too many repeated kicks in the nether regions already. So next RNS will be interesting. But we now move from a much lower base than we should be.

I dare not even speculate about what could go wrong given their capacity for unexpected and unwelcome news.
I would like to think laying the pipe was a sign that Southwark was going ok. But who knows. I pray they have not got more issues at Bacton or on Elgood/ Blythe.
Just looks like some more blocky trades in thin market.

Scored I watched I3e, AdV and IOG present back end last year. Since then ADV spiked but drilled a duster at buffalo. I3e got plenty of stick from disgruntled investors which put me off a bit. IOG delivered a slick and positive presentation.
Since then ADV I put a small punt and watched it implode, IOG we know about it it's gone up a bit and then down a lot. The confident presentation has been eroded by operational problems. I3e on the other hand has gone from 10p to 30p benefiting from being a producer in high commodity prices.
IOG should be doing much better than they are. News not too far away but we do seem to have been heavily marked down with the last round of bad news really hurting.
Like others I've invested a bit more at this price as I think this is going to get bought out.

I think the series of 'frustratng' and in my opinion in most cases preventable problems that has floored the share price in a strong gas price environment has left the company very vulnerable. Any offer would have to be 44p or higher. The problem the board have created is that without LOG fully on side and having under performed the share price the institutions and likely also PI holders may not be willing to wait much longer for the board to monetize the assets. Hence an offer around 50p might be all it takes.
The pipeline is obviously in progress as planned. Some news on where they are with Southwark would be nice and confirmation when they gave fixed Bacton and we are back towards full production.
Will they do that and try and rebuild some credibility or just carry on and hope they are overlooked by predators?
I'm still shocked at current share price post first gas given the macro economic context.

Yes sufficiently vague to enable multiple possibilities meaning they have covered themselves and don't need to RNS again. The comfort we have is that CalE will want to know when their 50% is resuming.
The combination of the unfair on North Sea producers windfall tax (why aren't importers taxed on their profits!) and continuing teething problems has been a double whammy.
It would be nice to assume the work at Bacton is underway but we have no way of knowing. How far is Southwark news away...pipeline must be near to some more activity and drill can't be far off some sort of milestone.

Well the IOG management have gifted that opportunity and more than 10% without the need to deramp......
I really cannot believe IOG is under 24p 2 months after first gas. It's a real let down for long term holders we find ourselves here so that new investors can come in on a mostly derisked opportunity at a huge discount to value.
The board need to stop being frustrated about each setback and ensure they have planned carefully ahead and get the right contractors so that we do not see any more of these frustrations. I for one am most seriously miffed at the past years catalogue of frustrations. If they carry on like this even their undemanding LTIP'S might come up short but probably not.

Well after yesterday's latest left field news we are left waiting to see what the prognosis will be on the gas processing plant.
A few observations. Why was the liquid processing switched on after the gas? It ran since 7th April and was worthy a mention in the ops update 2 weeks ago. Rereading that knowing what we know now it seems like they have had issues at Bacton for a while. The latest RNS seems to confirm the liquids have been a problem since April as the latest RNS is reporting effectively the outcome of the investigation and solution not the commencement of the problem. The RNS was required because of the shut in else we would have been none the wiser.
After a cursory read up on separators and slug catchers its an odd one. If the issue is a capacity one caused by two much fluids the question I've then asked myself is why is there more fluid coming out and is it both wells and does it signify anything about the reservoir reserves.
If it is just a short term issue and Perenco sort it quickly then the effect is temporary. Loss of much needed short term revenue but fixable quickly. Separating fluids and gas is such a common refining process it's surprising we have faced this problem unless the amount of fluids is way beyond what was planned which is why to me the question over what this means for the longer term delivery of the reservoir is pertinent and whether it was understood.
I find this one really odd. The capacity of the facilities to my mind should not have had issues with Blythe and Elgood and you would have thought they were sized for the bigger future volumes. But obviously not with this higher than expected level of condensate in the early months.
To the 11p man. Well you'll only get that if Southwark drills a dud production well.

Seedcorn I've invested in this company for many years. I've been invested in alot of O & G over the years. I have never known one to have some many issues like this. It's now become normal with IOG to wait for the RNS to say something else has gone wrong. Maybe other companies have the problems and never say anything. Unfortunately for phase 1 the past year had been a steady progression of faults and issues that have dragged the share price down. The pattern when the share price starts dropping with no explanation is becoming so clear now that you can probably reliably trade the share as the pattern repeats.

Hence why I'm asking what else can go wrong here. I'm hoping condensate once sorted does not then progress to issues with say gas separation.
The fact that they think the issue only applies to Elgood/Blythe as Southwark has less condensate means they knew they had to handle it. As with the scouring and Southwark issues it feels to me like something is not quite as it should be in the operations. That why I'm frustrated. I can accept things going wrong but this is clearly impacting the share price. LOG overhang is bad enough but IOG are being discounted because they are consistent in RNS'ing issues. The share won't get any traction till they stop it.
It's leaving a great buying opportunity for new entrants or a predator. It's left the institutions nursing losses and LOG admin something to think about.

Seedcorn debottleneck I get. But shut in? Is there no redundancy in the process. I guess it may be convenient for Perenco with limited onshore storage at moment to shut in.
The current share price is enough to make me scream. I can't believe we are back at such a level.

What is left to go wrong with phase 1?
We have had drilling issues at Elgood, problems with the facilities on the rig and now issues onshore reception facilities.....and that is without the catalogue of problems at Southwark.
Frustrating is an under statement. Surely this is not normal to have this many problems? I know it's Perenco on this occasion but it's enough to make you scream.

It's completely mad really.
First gas 44p. Now 26p a 40% drop on a share that was already under its pre first gas value - the 66p broker price is where we should be.
The current gas price is pinging between the long-term FID price of 45p and the market gas price 2,3 or 4 times the planning price. That should be a small factor in share price until it falls long term well below the planning case. But the expectation would be higher price of gas else the discussion on windfall tax and new price cap to frighten people is a lie.
Do we have some peer comparison for other companies that are producers that have fallen 40% or is this a IOG phenomenon?

Yes peak if anyone makes a move it would flush out others. Of course IOG may be left alone but I would inagine they are being watched. The problem IOG has is the concentration of ownership with LOG, LO and the other larger holders. Someone only needs to tap up a small number of holders to secure a significant number of shares.
The wider macro view in the market isn't so good. Utility type companies would normally hedge reasonably well but with the talk of windfall tax does not help.

Peak why not yet?
I would guess wait to see how phase 1 production and infrastructure stabilises.
Having waited do you then wait to confirm Southwark at least first drill finds resources. Maybe. The question of timing then is in part whether there are more than 1 potential bidder. First bid will force hand of others. LOG not selling at a low price now could indicate they see this as a possibility as well!

Marine I've been here long enough to watch it go up and down and up and down overs years not weeks or months! I am still well in profit on a substantial investment having supported the company through the ups and downs.
The company don't do alot of publicity. They never have done. Would it make much difference? At the margin maybe. Rightly or wrongly the share has a low profile and alot of large holders mean the share register I suspect is very stable.
As a fundamental or takeover opportunity play it's clearly under priced.

It will rerate of that I'm comfortable holding and I'm actually adding still at this price even though it's well above my average.
Peak if the results in a takeover it will come out of the blue. I don't think CalE seem to want to be operator. They seem happy to sit with their fixed price farm in and let IOG carry the risks on cost. They were smart enough to pass on Harvey and Redwell so the joint exploration ones I hope are better quality prospects.
What else are CalE active on in SNS? That may be an interesting comparator to glean what their future strategy might be. I don't think CalE necessarily provides cover for IOG in a takeover unless it was with a party they disliked. Money talks.
Which nicely comes back to the fundamentals in IOG. It is generating money and strengthening the balance sheet every day we pump gas. Quite simply if that carries on they would be able to invest further or pay dividend. If that does not lift the share then I would be pretty confident they will be taken over.

Wolster what it needs is another institution to see the value and buy the shares holders like LO have released. Unfortunately LO effectively traded a portion and have simply reloaded.
I really do think that a buyout by someone is a serious prospect now. With the pipeline and onshore facilities in place and 2 producing assets with a 3rd on the way the low share price is inviting an offer from any cash rich producer looking for somewhere to spend some cash. If your looking for a share price driving event that is the one that can happen at any time when least expected.
Getting first Southwark well completed and some sort of flow number is obviously going to help.
But for the share price to maintain an upward momentum it needs more volume from new buyers to pick up the stock.
So far we haven't seen that since the price was bashrd down post first gas.
Timing is often an important factor and IOG just missed the key winter 2021 price bonanza for various reasons. The result is they landed it as price was softening and as we now know there is over capacity in UK with no storage. The Russian dimension should be helping IOG but so far it has not.

The problem is with such low daily volumes it tends to have an exaggerated effect whenever a holder sells. It's a waiting game and a bit of a bargain price really. However, LOG and LO have a bit more than 10m shares to play with. They have 26% of issue in shares a £10m loan convertible (not shares) at 19p and the option is 10 million shares at 32p.
LO have Is it 18%?
So between those two holders >50% of the equity is consolidated.
The run up was preceded of course by a steep drop down which is why LOG and the institutions have such large holdings.

They have a mix of shares, loan note (i think it was £10m at 19p) and the 32p option. They will use the shares to raise petty cash if they need it or to resell the option above 32p or the note above 19p. The problem they have is the market for IOG shares continues to be suppressed. That is partly their own fault but equally LO have traded a portion from first gas with other institutions and some PI profit taking/trader sells and the price have simply not recovered.
That is in large part due to the late delivery of phase 1 means they finally dragged the operation across the line just in time for the gas price to retreat and into a news void while the late Southwark drill finally recommended.
It does look increasingly like Southwark success is the most likely catalyst to push the price and volume up to a level where LoG can make the return they are looking for. The problem is LO could just sell again I to the rise.
That is the problem we seem to be in. There is nothing wrong with the underlying business. The problem is the drag effect both LOG and institutions like LO are having on the actual share price.
In the background IOG will be accumulating cash now and the balance sheet will now begin to look much better.
The trouble is that is more likely to attract predatory interest. I think both LOG and LO will likely sell out to a bidder as their most likely exit strategy around 50p and it will be hard to stop a sale. I don't see either as stable long term shareholders and in combination they are a threat to the company. The alternative is they sit it out.
Log will look to convert the loan at a premium and they won't leave it to last minute. They will do it well in advance as it's not secured. While the price is under 32p the options are not in play. I would guess they were like us hoping the shares were trading alot higher than they are and the lack of trading and pull back has complicated whatever they had in mind. The lower price makes them less likely to do an orderly slow disposal and more likely tempted by an offer at a premium.
IOG has simply lost momentum in the share price and it's going to require something to shift it back upwards. With Southwark billed for Q4 and the exploration drills way off outside a bid or macro events positively effecting revenue then it's no surprise we have found support at this price point. Really disappointing I have to say but the delays have meant we were late to the party in 2021 and that has really cost us. Getting Southwark in on time for next winter prices is really important.
We then have the wildcards of the levy and the bizarre situation where UK gas storage limits mean our gas is selling for under the European price. That I had not anticipated at all. We seem to have too much gas in the UK.