Member Info for Moleinahole

Dell I doubt that is what is going on. Shorting what is still a relatively low liquidity stock for the institutions other than as a hedge makes no sense. The value of what is left goes down way more than anything they might be able to make by shorting it.
To close the short they would then have to buy back shares that may or may not be available.
Selling some to trim a position in profit is what is more likely. To do that they need upward momentum and volume to sell into. That is much more like what we are seeing which is why it keeps hitting glass ceilings at key price points.
Long term if cash is being generated it will move towards the fundamental valuations. Holders selling is normal if they are in profit particularly around tax points or to invest elsewhere. In time if it's undervalued buyers will come in but the amount some institutions like Lombard have accumulated means they can in any short term period create amplified effects on the share price. The underlying value of the business while reflected in the share price at any point in time is in reality the accumulation on the balance sheet. IOG is now cash generative and will be for several years.

Looking at the marine track last couple of days seems to have been signs of some activity hopefully see the rig moved back soon. I don't think they would have called the PI meeting for 20th unless by then they had something positive on Southwark!

Given LOG have both shares and warrants still to go above 30% it's not straight forward to divest. The easiest is if it's agreed IOG buy them out effectively as a share buy back. That is why being so late with phase 1 to me is so irritating as the delays into the high gas price has missed the opportunity of an early buy back.
Either way oddly if that if the way out a low share price is in the buyers interest. If that is IOG then we want to buy low to boost the long term share price.

It's a hard one and not fully in the boards hands but that has been the consequence of the fallout from LOG. The large number of shares in institutions hands is equally annoying and should not have happened especially as most of the money raised at discount has been wasted fund the failed drills such as Harvey and the debt built up from Skipper.
CaleE cash input and the bond is paying for the current campaign.
calE don't need extra exposure in current campaign they have their costs fixed. So they won't move unless someone bid. Even then they may not do anything.

It's not just LOG we also have Lombard with a large holding and a few other with tidy sums.
It is the legacy of some unfortunate past events I'm afraid. The way forward is cash on the balance sheet into strong gas prices. That will in time be an irresistible force as money on a balance sheet combined with a below NAV share price is like ringing a dinner bell for predators.
In the meantime the way forward is to monetize Southwark and get onto the real additional value creators in the so called project factory. Hopefully with a bit of better fortune we can get Southwark and 1 or 2 of the prospecting drills over the line this year.

Peak had an email from JC at IOG threatening this meet. So I'm looking at Diary and return train times but yes I'm a possible. Too good an opportunity to pass over.

Dunderhead the real question on Southwark is who did the seabed surveying and what did that say about the risk. As with anything insurance related an insurer won't cover something that's likely to happen - at least not at anything other than a very steep (and re-insured or co-insured premium). It was clearly not insured which is what I suspected - how insurable it was I don't know. Now I don't know the history of Elgood vs Blythe vs Southwark as a drill locations and what level the risk pre-drill was of scouring at each location. Are the surveys published on the Oil and gas sites as part of the environmental and safety assessments and public available? The survey should have assessed that and at least assessed a probability. That probability would tell you how insurable it was. If I get to AGM this year that is the sort of question that needs asking to whether they took a risk or were just plain unlucky. I'm guessing it was assessed as low risk hence they or their advisors had not considered protection part of the plans for the site. Anyway its proved a costly problem. Fingers crossed when they restart its worked and they get the drill done quickly and away from that location. You would then hope that the seabed survey at the future locations receives much closer scrutiny.

In terms of share price Peak for me its all about the loss of momentum. The placing in sept and delays from Oct right up to the constant date moves of first gas really took momentum away. The selling on first gas by institutions and pressure on the share by what is an obvious trickle back ground sell has stopped it regaining momentum and its really irritating to see it go into reverse at under fair value and actually generating revenue into a strong market (don't I know it with my projected gas/electric bill for next year arriving today and increasing by a huge amount as I came off a fixed tariff rate!). With a week left of the tax year and MM playing it we might see this suddenly reverse as it has done before and move on little or no news or volume or warning.

Long term however and inspite of the issues this SHOULD stabilise and return to a trajectory heading towards the broker forecasts. However, getting there does face the headwinds of the institutions selling into any volume so its going to be more like a tortoise than a hare. The longer however the board fail to get the share price back on an upward trajectory the higher the risk they face of being bumped up by a bid. That remains a real possibility here and can come at any time out of the blue.

Flows today were good news but more (albeit minor issues at Blythe) just make me want to bang my head on the table. Hopefully that is the last of issues at Elgood and Blythe and we are seeing the beginning of the turnaround at Southwark. I still can't believe we have had the rig working since April last year and have drilled 2 wells in a year with it effectively idle now for 6 months of that 12 due to issues.

Ok update and as usual never straight forward with a mix of good and bad.
Bad is the cost of Southwark issues. That's what I was expecting never believed it was an insurable risk. Paying out of our 2022 cashflow means no placing. But it pretty much means the money raised in the sept placing and the overdraft facility can be used. Have my doubts CalE will pay given they capped their costs. As previously discussed higher gas price has saved IOG here.
Flow rates ok and good to see no setback in that department. Irritation of temporary shut in on Blythe. Rather not that had happened but not an issue in grand scheme.
Main news is Southwark. I was watching marine track yesterday as well so we knew they had been busy. Should see some more action to move the rig back. Downside is the delay has pushed first gas Southwark firmly into Q4. If gas price high for next year they will sell into next winter. Given we started Southwark in Oct 2021 it's turned into a long delay. Hopefully they have planned ahead to utilise the rig efficiently now after Southwark and we see no more downtime.

What effect does this have on the share price? Who knows. We are under fair value but it would be nice to have an RNS that's not got any twists or unexpected bits for a change to get momentum going again. Set for another RNS soon with rig move and drill and a further update on Blythe you would think. Typical IOG swings and roundabouts RNS but broadly OK.

Peak if you start with the fundamentals of the business then nothing has changed. Iog has always been a bit unloved. The pull back has been to the levels where 2 institutions sold post first gas. Their sales took momentum out of the share. The board decided to deliberately bring the institutions in at discount so them and LOG remain a potential brake whenever they choose to sell. Combined with some PI joining in and the fact we are approaching tax year end and ISA season that is a factor.
The main short term uncertainty Southwark and arguably gas volume. Forward gas pricing is certainly not an issue.
With broker estimates well higher than current there is no fundamental reason we know of to support a lower price.
Running through the other usual suspects like a placing seems unlikely. The threat of higher North sea tax may be a factor at margin and the general macro position does not help. For traders maybe it just does not move enough.

So I'd go with the momentum being stalled and a bit of downward pressure from it not rising and getting escape velocity at first gas so it's drifted back down. Annoying but it is what it is. Given the issues at Southwark I think we need some good news there to consolidate and a bit of news on sales would not go amiss.

GG I'm in your camp in respect of waiting.
There is nothing we as PI holders can do when the bigger institutions who have been gifted a profitable position sell except maybe buy some more. Same with LOG. However, that is where a little bit of news management would not go amiss to ease the passing of the shares to new holders. The stable flow would be nice but my money would be on a combined update with activity at Southwark. I suspect that is where we need to be watching for activity as focus shifts. That may be a little bit away yet.
Either way we should over time enjoy a move up towards fair value. Southwark seems to be the significant near term catalyst. And that is what I'm watching for.

There were no worries from yesterday! The drop in short term share price is clearly due to institutions trimming positions in profit being joined by a bit of PI doing same and trading and the MM.
Even Dunderhead if you actually read what he says acknowledges the underlying business is on sound footing. The irritation is the delays over last few months which I think even the board show signs at times. On the LTIP I 100% agree with Dunderhead that it's undemanding. It's a Bulletin board and the debate here is valid picking through and commenting on the details and not just following a path of cheering success and ignoring shortcomings. Ultimately I think everyone listing here actually has same broad objective of seeing the company succeed.

Going forward we need that rig back on Southwark as soon as possible as it's the staging point to the next round of production. So keep watching Sailor for activity.

I used yesterday to bed and ISA some IOG and after a think and look at the numbers took a speculative punt as I think it was over done and 44p to the 66p fincapp number remains where we should be.
Plenty to look forward too over the next year with a good mix of near term and rolling developments offshore. The gas hedge I think is key as it will fix near term cash flow. Hopefully we have exhausted our run of bad luck on Southwark and are due for a bit of change of fortune.

Citizen the reserves during 2021 as a whole have not got slightly smaller. These are further downgrades on top of Harvey and Redwell write offs which were both significant potential and in the case of Harvey a drilled well bigger than Elgood!
The underlying business is sound but they have been very fortunate with gas pricing. The reserves needs addressing unless the plan is so plan is to sell the business with producing assets.

I don't think we will ever get an explanation for Bacton and or the issues we have seen in phase 1. Whether they have actually learnt anything is what is important.

The other bit worth a read is the gas hedging section by the way. That is an important read.

Quick scan and like you I pretty much went straight to the reserves. Further reductions as you say. Elgood we knew was coming after the drill but it's bigger than I thought it would be. The importance of the next round of drilling has increased. I also had a read of the section on future acquisition/licensing but nothing concrete in there but the out of round possibilities have to be an option.

Will need a fair amount to time to read and digest fully. For later as have a busy day.

They have been gifted shares in placing at 10p and 25p. So a nice profit for them. They also hoovered up some loose shares between 10 and 25p.
Not alot can be done with the institutions as I've posted many times. They were invited in at discount to broaden the shareholder base and dilute LOG and PI interests. Was always a risk here that the way up faces headwinds as they sell.
That's a consequence of some of the squandered money on skipper and Harvey which is why alot of it was raised in the first place. ....hopefully given CalE have had a good look Kelham will prove a better drill in future.
Doesn't change any of the fundamentals but obviously effects share price if bigger holders keep trimming positions.

IOG has for quite some time been a curiosity in its share price movement.
For a long time here I think myself, Peak, Dunderhead and a few others like Pipe and GG have had the board ticking over on days with anemic trades going through some days I think we accounted for the trades among ourselveses. Even today what is interesting is the board is quiet. It has not yet attracted a cohort of pi traders
I've posted on this enigma before. For whatever reason IOG is what I call a boring share. It's a solid underlying asset that at current prices will make money. The current macro economic climate places the company in a great place.
It will move when the value becomes clearer. It will not stay trading at discount. When and how it moves up is as much to do with approach of the larger shareholders and LOG and in short term the MM That is where the volume is and if they move it's as likely to be off book. Griffith's selling last week has given some liquidity in what would normally be tight held shares. When IOG moves it's often not even on news.
For those worried/ baffled lucky you weren't holding when Skipper\harvey\LOG bomshell\gifts to institutions occured as that was a true test of loyalty to the company when the price was in reverse.
For all the challenges we are at first gas in phase 1. There remains a bit of uncertainty on flow rates and getting the drilling campaign to get Southwark on stream asap. So there are some factors that still hold this back a bit.
But it's not been a pi share for quite some time. This is about the bigger holders who will be quite happy sat on large profits and with prospect of more.
The value is there and the share price is just a point in time. The is now about the weigh in that is coming as the company generates cash to repay expenses and debt and once that is covered fund future revenue enhancing development or dividend. The company can then be valued on a fundamental not speculative basis. My opinion is it's north of 44p.......then there is the very real possibility of them being bought hence getting the share price up helps in that.

Nope normal iog Wolster. Whatever it does day on day the underlying value will come out and find its level in time. If not it will become a takeover target. Lets see where we finish and if we have some large sells in background. All the institutions are well in profit as are LOG admin and any PI at this level.

The time to worry about LOG was a few years ago we had to endure a prolonged assault on the company by the prophets of doom. They inflicted serious damage on the then largely PI investor base and enabled institutional investors to enter on the cheap.
The key now is getting the gas flow and revenue. Good pricing and further progress at Southwark and LOG will be taken care of in time. Their biggest threat is in being a supplier of shares in the event of a takeover. They have not done anything past couple of years other than sit and wait for first gas.

Be interesting now to see where this settles on news next week.

Spare cash when we get it needs to pay for the cost over runs and make a dent in the borrower money. Once we have free cash then it will be interesting to see how they approach the bond and the notes held by LOG. Has to be a chance the intention is to manage the LOG admin running off their huge holding as the source of a buyback before any dividend. That would both support the share price and reduce the risk of the shares ending up on the open market.
We seem to have arrived where I expected share price wise for first gas although 6 months later than planned. Such is the mess in Ukraine high pricing looks set for the foreseeable future.

AGM can't be too far away. Depending on commitments that's a date I'll be looking to pencil in anyway this year to hear what they have to say.

Sailor my posting history lays out clearly my frustration at many aspects of the campaign over past year and particularly since December. We will see soon enough what it's cost us. CalE are getting a free ride here we are bearing the costs of the issues at Elgood and Southwark as they have capped their contribution for 50% and were smart enough to avoid the money pit that Harvey became.

Still under fair value at this price but they really need to get a shake on at Southwark. Gas is important for UK and Europe at moment not just IOG.

They really have been lucky with the gas pricing and there has never been a better time to bring 2 new southern North sea fields online. Southwark now needs to get back on the road quickly or move on to the other objectives. They have also increased in importance in current climate.

Closing in on the 44p first gas that has been my long time line and we should do better now once they get the first gas flowing and bring clarity on the next steps to sort out the stalled drilling programs.

Well at last. Final countdown to switch on now running.
I 100% agree Dunderhead over the years we've not always seen events here in same way but GG's post earlier captures some of the drama we have had. There should have been a smoother glide path for first gas but along the way we have had to endure some serious problems and setbacks.
In time with fair wind now it will be a receding memory but it's been harder than it should.
Timing is great for first gas in terms of wider context. I'll be happier still when they get the rig running again as I don't like the fact it's been idle for best part of six months.
Let's see where we get to next week. 45p for me is where we should be and then see where it finds a new level. 36p is ridiculous but the result of the stop/start phase 1 program. It's odd but after all this time it feels a bit flat. Be happier next week once we get past this 36p ceiling.

Like I've said many times IOG are without doubt the masters of the left field.
Who would have imagined a war in Ukraine results in the very final days before first gas a change of offtake.
It's the right decision to sell to European offtakers and kick Gasprom into touch.
Now the question of why the back gas is not underway or not RNS yet if it is.
I'm guessing it has to have some sort of safety certification approved. So given the UK strategic necessity of increasing gas supply you would hope that should not take too long. If they have been slow you would hope it's been built properly and safely.
Come on IOG get the Bacton signed off and the back gas underway news out there, please and no more surprises unless they are nice ones!

Gasprom is one of the offtakers - thought we had two. If they as a UK subsidiary were to be sanctioned then they could not pay for the offtake so it them who would quickly be in breach not IOG. I think that's a non issue and would be sorted.

One worries more with IOG that something else has gone wrong that we have not seen coming with the connect up or Southwark.

More likely just to be holding the price to squeeze shares, a background sell for various reasons nothing to do with company.

But really this close and rising gas prices you would think should move the price in an upward direction given it's already under valued. They have moved the goalposts and surprised so many times on this first gas I think they have exhausted everyone and hence the share has no momentum or publicity at all.