Member Info for Moleinahole

Well they are on their way today already to hundreds of thousands of pounds of cheap shares.
Next year if it goes wrong presumably they lower the bar and increase the bonus again.
It's sheer greed and not based on incentivising performance at this low level however anyone chooses to justify it.
At least they have dropped any comparative measure to other shares it's that bad knowing full well it should recover! But just leaving a single absolute measure of a destroyed share price recovery is borderline unethical given they are to blame.
There is a production target not published and a flimsy climate target they can not fail to meet.
There are no other targets like phase 2 or a future field. Nothing.
They are already drawing salaries. If you have been lucky to buy a destroyed share and also benefit from any recovery with the board that caused it then I can see why you think it's acceptable. I don't. The timing is opportune and wrong. They should have deferred till the AGM and aligned 2023 post H2 to get a more realistic baseline. Not doing so has rewarded failure in 2022 with bumper options in 2023.
If you think that guarantees some equity protection you are very wrong. They are drawing salary and next year can try again on s different baseline. At some point shareholders have to call out over generous remuneration rewarding failure. This is just that. It is wrong.

On that I'm afraid we will have to agree to disagree.
I don't like shareholders being taken for a ride by boards in any company. It demonstrates that they actually don't care which as owners of the company is wrong. The behaviours of lack of care quickly translates to lack of care in running the business. That lack of due care and attention is exactly what happened over last year.
The share price may well recover but I think a takeover is now more likely. But in terms of balance of risk Vs reward long term shareholders have just had their pockets picked by what looks now like a board seeking to reward themselves.

Deltalo that is exactly the point.

They can effectively hit the target in about 6 weeks. It's pathetic. In addition in event of a low ball takeover no doubt they would look to have them exercised.

It's in no way incentivising anything. It is achievable by doing next to nothing. They are undemanding and just effectively remunerating handsomely based on the destruction they themselves caused!
You may be happy with 20p but this should have been 40p to 70p had they not made so many mistakes.
No wonder they were so keen to rush out all the bad news including a very negative reserve report. They have done everything possible to hammer the share price and yesterday's going concern comments were the final confirmation of the woeful performance.
Not much can be done about it but it' looks bad because it is.

Well they won't need to do any director buys they have just been gifted shares effectively to do nothing.

After the past years performance that is shameful. Fiona should leave immediately based on that and never serve on a board again if any shareholders have sense.

The targets are pathetic awarding them at the very bottom of a cycle of share price destruction. All the targets are so easy to reach its laughable.

It is manifestly not fair on shareholders. That ranks as one of the worst I've ever seen. Looking forward to whatever they expect support of at AGM.

That is an absolute disgrace. I will be mailing the company to that effect later.

There is not alot shareholders can do but the board are pushing their luck ripping off shareholders now.

Moving2 that has been the case since the Southwark debacle.
H2 is obviously key to cashflow else H1 is all they have and not enough.
Common sense from bond holders and govt (whose actions on windfall tax are contributing to the problem for small North sea UK based producers) and some stability on the gas price curve. The govt are punishing UK producers and encouraging gas imports at the moment.
We at least now know the covenants on the bond.
Moving out the work programme dates to keep inside the ratios without having to resort to equity or other funds is the balancing act. But they need to still progress phase 2 and appraisal assets.
They have managed to end up in a tight spot from what should have been a strong position at the end of 2022.
Needs good will from stakeholders and a bit of luck for a change. That should not be where they are but events have landed us here. The wider macro. Environment is less favourable which constrains options and adds to the pressure to get H2 right and then choose carefully the next location to drill.

As expected results - cash around what expected and no new surprises!
But that was because they decided to release the final piece of bad news in the reserve report early flagging the Southwark and Elgood impairment in adVance.
Debt manageable if they can get H2 away in next few weeks and gas price stays high.
The hit from the windfall tax and commentary is worth noting. We had people here last year enthusiastically supporting it. It's a disaster for small UK based production and will remain a risk to IOG future investments in SNS.
Ok with those results.

Yes Dunder first they need to make the FID. Commission the program and any capital items and only then would CalE start to disburse. Phase 2 is different to phase 1. Phase 1 IOG largely used the CalE funds to repay debt and then waste on the Harvey Drill and drew down the bond for the capex including buying and installing a platform for a sub commercial field.

The big question mark on phase 2 is what the write down on Southwark mean s particularly for Nailsworth. If they had a commitment for phase 2 but then it changes content then it would need some sort of novation to the contract. Would they want to plough ahead if they have uncertainty or take action to remove the uncertainty?

That is why we are at sub 5p until there is more clarity on fixing phase 1 and phase 2 timing.

Garyn I agree the accounts could be difficult for people not familiar with what they say to comprehend. I don't think when they are issued they will be straightforward. The post period end events have been very material so it may take time to get them out.

Deltalo they will inevitably be mixed news.
While they have generated revenue and accumulated cash on the reserves side and costs they will be some unpleasant numbers. But as with any results they are historic and look back.
The commentary from board when they release them will be interesting. The main thing it permits when released is directors could buy again which some of the traders will no doubt be hoping for.
But they have not indicated a date for accounts so the date is speculative.

David I suggest you reead my post again more carefully. And then post again.
The important part is H2 does not encounter fractures in the reservoir intervals like H1. The drills news will not be June. It will be at least a month earlier unless something goes wrong.
First gas is the outcome we hope for by June but let's get the drill out of the way first.

The company have said many things regarding dates and it is of course inject to the vagaries of drilling.

The fact is the H1 well first news was per the dates in the RNS from 2021.
Given its drilled into same intervals and they have done it once already then why do you think those dates are not a reasonable analogy? That was under 2 months from spud.
Given they also plan on AGM in may then I think it's highly likely you could have as per H1 the drill result by very early may or earlier. The drill result with flow is what matters. They then allow some time to hook up but a month when H1 is already on is generous. The important bit is the drill result. The revenue will follow as soon as possible after that. Given IOG track record first gas from H2 who knows but the drill with no issues is relatively quick unless like Southwark things go wrong.

3rd aug 2021 and 29th sept 2021 RNS for H1.
First well took under 2 months to drill and flow test. But note they did lose some drililng mud due to natural fractures. So around 1st week may if they don't have any issues.

Or more likely recent short term investors trades being put under pressure......or as many have already owned up to selling in the hope of buying back even cheaper perhaps....

If the board attempt to raise funds at this level they should all resign!
They have enough cash to complete H2 and funding for phase 2 from calE, with some cash in hand they should still have the bank facility and possibly some unused bond money.
If they do a raise to their mates in the city it would dilute LOG the biggest holder and I just can't see them agreeing. I would expect them to tell the board explore other options or as a last resort to put the company up for sale.
The problem is the phase 1 delays and problems have squandered a once in a generation gas price opportunity. By going back to redo H2 its a step back - a final one we hope to be able to move forwards. Unfortunately it takes time after value destruction has been imrnense. The further drop reflects the position the company has created by swapping their II investors and stable longer term PI investors for shorter term PI traders and speculators. The MM know that and will be quite happy with the current profile of trades since January.

We don't know for sure as they have been slightly vague about it from day 1.
They had trouble originally when drilling it but the issues were resolved and it was late.
The flow was then impeded by fluid handling as they were getting more condensate than they expected or planned for. Once that was sorted it seemed to run smoothly and then when the pipeline was shut in Nov it seems to have not restarted. They originally said it could be cycled presumably to let pressure rebuild. So it ran for 6 months only and is now locked in pending dewatering and compression. The compression at bacton is some years away and the tiny volume left pre compression is pending whatever the dewatering means and cycling.
It's basically parked for the moment or has next to nothing to extract for now.
What should of course of happened is it should of had more reserves and run longer. But that has just not happened and so is not acting as a base production while Blythe is shut-in. With Southwark also suspended that leaves IOG in short term not producing into this short cold snap. In short it's just been left Shut in.

Dunder generally commenting that's really not the same as what we have seen at Southwark! The problems there before they started (rig failure and submersible failure) on the seabed with scouring, drilling down with fluid loss and finally the frac to then produce more water than gas was and still is an unexpected outcome. Some water, lower gas volume maybe but basically uncommercial?
It's way beyond the domain of difficulties of small assets generally. The result at Southwark is so far off ANY expected result no body expected or predicted it. We even had people posting here clearly close to the action who right up to last moment didn't see that outcome post sealing off the zones.
I've been critical of the board in the main since the failure to get any production online in 2021. I have been unimpressed by the series of what seem to me to be largely avoidable problems. But Southwark is in a league its own and was totally unexpected even by you I dare say.

Dunder let's look at the 3 phase 1 assets.
Elgood was slow to get the drill team working but was drilled in the end. It has underperformed as the pre drill sub surface work has over estimated the resources and how recoverable they were.
Blythe drill went smoothly but in time again it's shown they have drilled into a fractured area. So again I would say the issue was the pre drill sub surface work. The current volume is way below expectation but unlike Elgood it still as decent recoverable volume.
Southwark is the biggest mystery. Having failed to get through the upper layers they turned to drill A2. That has been shown again to have suffered from not understanding the sub surface combined with believing that they could frac a long lateral. Right up to the drilling result RNS there would be no reason to believe they had erected a rig and attempted to commercially exploit a field that at the current time looks uncommercial.
It's not about confirmation bias. This is a tale of a catestophic failure of the sub surface analysis by the IOG management team. The drops have been on unexpected news and in most cases gapped down leaving long term holders including LOG stuck.
I don't recall any posts about Southwark highlighting the issues we have seen pre results. It was totally unexpected to both suffer low flow and water ingress.

Alligator they have a carry worth double cash for next phase. So Blythe is very important but it's not the very final role of the dice for IOG.
One can only hope they finally learn some lessons and have the right team looking at the sub surface wherever they go next. On marginal assets that understanding is clearly of critical importance. Hence understanding which of the assets pose similar risks to Southwark or the issues at Blythe are post H2 the most important component of what they do next. That they say is what they are doing.

The market has priced in the failure at Southwark and depletion of Elgood while the company redrills Blythe.
Phase 1 has under performed significantly being delivered late, over budget and not delivery volumes. Reserves have been slashed.
It's pricing in the inability of the board to deliver and the consequent risks that brings due to the bond and potentially a fundraise letting the institutions who crashed the price back in at a further discount. I think the only thing stopping that should the cash balance dwindle is LOG administrators who will be pretty annoyed having seen 95% of their asset wiped out and facing the expiry of their 31p option. Their £10m loan is subordinate to the bond so they above everyone will want this turned round and without dilution.
Damage has been done just a waiting game now on H2 to stabilise the finances and then see where the rig heads to next.

So when you say your long - the reality is your trading the share and have effectively gone short......to buy back cheaper......fair enough but that is more a short/long strategy than being long.

There is no obvious news due but it's trading below cash and with a carry for phase 2 worth double the cash on its own. Yes it has the bond but H1 will cover that as long as it doesn't go wrong unexpectedly. It should trade flat until some more clarity or volume picks up. The one thing that would change things from left field is an offer that will lock traders out. There should be no more bad news to publish and they will likely hunker down again till April which is earliest H2 will reach a significant milestone.
They may RNS restart of gas sales post @ 10 days but they don't need to. AgM and appointments is post AGm which they have shunted to May to enable some good news for shareholders who will be most seriously unimpressed by the past years performance of shareholder value destruction.
License round is possible but feels later than march to me.
The gas pricing may be as big a factor at moment as anything.

True to form IOG wait a week and an RNS in between to inform us H1 went offline a week earlier for the drill and we can expect 10days offline in March on top.
Had been waiting for that news. They chose to hold back the Shut in across multiple RNS. The problem is with Elgood quietly also left shut-in pending dewatering and possibly till compression in 2027 and not being cycle produced once again more of the winter gas bonanza pricing is missed.
Fantastic.
Positive that they have moved the rig and got going quickly now we just have to trust the review of the seismic was accurate and that there are not further undetected faults in the H2 location. The original Blythe drill and connection was the simplest of the 4 phase 1 drills to date.
Working out where to go next they need to do relatively quickly to get the approvals as unless it's back to Southwark then there is alot to do. If it's an appraisal well outside phase 2 it will need funding £12m from the £25m pot on H2 leaves barely enough - so phase 2 makes more sense financially but are there long lead time items needed?
Thats why losing revenue now is so painfu we need as much cash as we can gather so shut ins are not good if unavoidable.

Pipe I'm genuinely interested in how Southwark could have gone so wrong.
They had the original drill somewhere around A1 location from the discovery and seismic. They allegedly even revisited the seismic for A2!
How can they not have known about the proximity of the water and the risk of what they were facing on this play? I don't recall any mention that it was even a possibility.
CalE obviously looked at it and presumably the bond issuer. Which makes it all the stranger given CalE correctly declined Harvey before IOG had an unsuccessful drill there.

RN has clearly decided to clear the decks of bad news. But how on earth can they have got it so wrong at Southwark? It takes some explaining after the issues drilling A1 to finally do A2 but then park the field with a platform on it.
I presume Goddard/Nailsworth need a platform procured should they proceed plus the costs of drilling production wells? CalE will no doubt want a very close look at that to ensure a repeat of Southwark can't occur.
Next round of news will be more positive with Blythe H2 progressing.