Member Info for mole_man99

You never know. Got to do something with those Tesla and Bitcoin profits.

Technically it got to 93p in the pandemic panic. If it gets to there it's getting close to my buy target...

In fairness to Tesla, they announced nothing. Hertz came out and said they are partnering with Uber to put 50,000 EV's into the fleet with an order for 100000 Tesla's. Elon pointed out nothing is signed.
Agree though that misinformation must be stamped out where it occurs. Makes things very tricky for PI's, as if they are not tricky enough.

It's a neat comparison to the NQ debt to EBITDA, but VOD has a track record of not making any money after depreciation and interest payments, as evidenced by the €120bn of accumulated losses on the balance sheet. The worry for institutions is that VOD's debt just grows and grows as it can't pay it down, and unlike the government it can't print money.

Been hearing that argument against GAW for over 30 years. When I was actually playing the games in the early 90's, the shops always had a hard core of, ususally smelly, vocal minorities predicting the end of Games Workshop within a year.
GAW is doing brilliantly. Nerves over the end of covid leading to thoughts of gamers spending money elsewhere have mature investors who do not inderstand the company a little nervous.
All is well. Decent buy in price with this recent fall.

Yeah sorry NVDA is ticker for US company Nvidia. The computer you are on now probably has an Nvidia chip on the graphics card. I just assume you can read my mind.
Dan you can't expect any stock to just go up, so if you buy into one and it falls, if your conviction is strong enough you won't be bothered. Just take it is an opportunity to buy more for less. If you fret when a stock you own falls, then you either have too much of your portfolio in it, or you are unsure it has a strong future.
Yes I have some that are currently underwater, but they wait their day in the sun. The winners outweight the losers though.

The crystal ball doesn’t exist. Nothing wrong with a bit of portfolio rebalancing though Robleo if you feel you have too much exposure to VOD. You could keep 1% of your portfolio in it just to reduce the fomo risk from selling all. Redistribute the rest to other sectors and companies.

Last time we discussed this in July you or Dan asked what these exciting alternatives were. I mentioned a look at NVDA, which is 22% up since then. Lucky guess maybe, but I was comfortable with it from looking at the sector and deciding NVDA was the strong one in the bunch.

Look for sectors that you can see doing well next 5 to 10 years then look for the strongest in that bunch. Make a little comparative spreadsheet of financials you think important to help decide. Earnings debt cash etc. Look at the track record too. Last few years have earnings increased decreased or just flat.

The hunt should be fun. You’ll know you are doing it right when your choice falls and you don’t care. You just buy more as you have that conviction in the long run your company will come through on top.

Hi Android.
At March 1st, before the first convertible bond was converted, the share float was 26.8bn. Your figure from April 1st was after the bond shares had been issued to settle the bond. The count today is 27.4.
With continued buybacks, they may remove the current dilution by the time the next bond converts in March '22. Approx 1.5bn shares will then be issued causing approx 5% dilution again. They can spend the next year buying those back.

Conversion price of £1.13, not euro.

The conversion price takes into account dividends paid over the period of the bond that the bond holders missed, so the next March bond will convert around €1.13, assuming next div is not cut. Approx 1.5bn shares will be issued. Current buyback speed will take several years to get share float back to March '21 level of 26.8bn shares, so holders will have to endure dilution on some level over that period.

Ratings are just one notch above junk really. You can see why VOD seems unloved by institutional money.

Cheapy, VOD borrowing to pay div is just a statement of fact.

2014 to 2020 VOD paid out €26.3 bn in div
2015 to 2021 net debt increased €18.7bn

IF they did not pay out a div, net debt would be down to €14bn now instead of €40bn.

They managed to pay a div by increasing borrowings. Sorry if it upsets you, but it's better that investors know the truth, then they can decide if the div is safe or not.

They would need to start making solid profits that would pay back some of the $120bn lost already. The market has grown tired of waiting so the SP languishes from a general lack of interest and concern for the debt.
Yes they pay a div, but the market knows they basically borrow to pay it. They need to start generating truly excess capital. FCF is not truly excess capital.
Interims will be interesting.

Perhaps he would modify the statement to probably one of the worst performers of the last 20 years still in the FTSE100 as it is down 25% in 20 years. It's hard to find the data to quickly compare.
Hargreaves Lansdown do a list of constituents and you can compare back up to 5 years. VOD sits at 94th with a negative 49.08% performance.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/ftse-100/performance?column=date_5y&order=desc

Not seen any solid news about them putting more in Idea and Idea deny it is happening, if you have any article links please share. They are shutting the spain shops though. Another loss making empire building adventure to unwind.

VOD should concentrate on making what they have more profitable. No excuse for the UK market not to be profitable.

How will they access millions of ounces? Strip mine the whole Clontibret region.

The Clontibret O'Neills will have nowhere to play Gaelic football. Perhaps the fortune 500 parent of Demir will buy them off.

Sounds expensive.

I think you nailed it SIDI

You can’t time the market, so if you think your funds are better allocated elsewhere then there is no time like the present to make the move.

Sell VOD in chunks and dollar cost average into your funds.

The FT article is an old one written when the bonds were issued but it's points are still valid. It tried to explain the reasoning behind them, pulling off 'financial alchemy' trick of raising debt through bond issuance without effecting creit rating. The hope was than the mandatory convertible bonds would be viewed as equity rather than debt by accountants.

It was also hoped that at the same time, existing equity holders would not view it as a potential diliution of their holdings and mark the SP down. That worked at first.

Maybe VOD's credit rating was not effected these past years by that portion of debt so that part of the alchemy worked, but clearly they did then present a dilution of holders, with a second to come in March next year.

The ex-rights price is 638p and record date already passed. Market showing it's vote of confidence for the plan.

Back in the housing crisis, all housebuilders inevitable had to RI to rework the balance sheets. All went on to make good gains. EZJ will be well positioned for continued recovery in air travel.

Take up your rights. Don't sell them off.

Bit harsh. When did ASH upset you?

It's a very good question and one all investors should consider with all their stocks. Is it the best use of capital for the company. While the buyback here is to reduce dillution, it's effect for shareholders is debatable. A strong company with a strong balance sheet can use a buyback to distribute truly surplus capital to investors as an alternative to divs, but VOD is further weakening it's balance sheet to make it's EPS look a bit better, they hope. The market does not seem convinced, as ASH points out.