Member Info for mole_man99

'mobile's won't catch on' was a comic reference back to the 80's, making the point that criminally expensive tech at the time became the cheap and widespread things we have today. Sat phones could go the same way was the point

Yeah it wasn't totally clear I guess. Sorry 'bout that. Glad it provided some entertainment though.

The costs can reduce, as the cost of cell calls did. Good deflation.

Apple taking it mainstream will make sat comms more accessible, and eventually an alternative, and cost will decline as useage increases.

After all, who would pay £1000 to have a car phone fitted when you could make the same telephone call from your office for much less. Mobile phones will never catch on or get cheaper.

It's the Ark theory I agree with. Legacy companies that leveraged their balance sheet with debt to pay dividends and make buybacks for short term investors will find themselves unable to invest in new technologies and will only be able to compete by reducing price. Be on the right side of change.

The Iridium network is already working with small handheld devices for voice and text. Apple taking it mainstream is intriguing.

Sat comms will only improve. It's tech and will be subject to Moore's law.

iPhone 13 reported to have satellite connectivity to use low latency sat network.
At first it can help in areas with poor mast coverage, but given starlink is getting 5G speeds, it could ultimately replace masts I think.

The Mole will be full of humble pie if that happens. You can always dream.

The options market is pricing the likelihood of it happening at 0.002%.

It will depend what sectors your are concentrated in as market moves are very theme driven these days. You'll need some stocks from each sector to track the FTSE closer.

Today for example oil price recovered so oil companies are up. Utilities like VOD are down as they mostly exist for divs, and talk of tapering in US, high inflation and potentially rising interest rate makes divs from risky stocks less attractive, unless the SP falls to make the yield more attractive and hodling worth the risk.

I shall be sitting back and letting this run it's course. May sell out of Woodside once I have the stocks, then let BHP develop those new world order commodities.
I have some other ASX listed stocks. It's no big deal to have it there or in London. Real shame for London though. It needs to get it's act together and attract new tech listings for the bold future.

Market is becoming generally pessimistic. Oil continues it's drift down on demand fears for example. Strange patterns with bond yields. I don't think VOD will do well in this environment as buyers will want a higher margin of safety. I am seeing a trend down, not up.

This is not the stock you're looking for...

How are they going to allowed to dig up 65km of lovely green Clontibret fields?

Anyone care to show some figures of why the SP is currently a good entry point. I put in some pretty impressive growth numbers next 5 years and get prices between £30 to £50 a share, in 5 years time.
Perhaps the value is hidden. Second hand bike sales perhaps?

Just to clarify dividends and losses discussion from my comments, you can see the changes in VOD's report in the 'consolidated statement of changes in equity' The dividend paid out is deducted from the accumulated profit/loss account, just called 'accumulated comprehensive losses' in VOD's case as it has no retained earnings. Page 33 of '21 results.

This is normal accounting. VOD are doing nothing odd.

I once added up all the div's VOD has paid out over the years but can;t remember the exact figure. It was somewhere around €50bn, so that amount will be in the 'accumulated comprehensive losses'

They did make those mark to market gains on options due to the SP being higher than the strike price at year end. Presumably though they have options to cover the 2022 convertible bonds at a similar strike, so will most likely make mark to market losses if SP remains this low, which is currently below the bonds conversion price.

It's all just luck of the draw accounting gains/losses that will largely be ignored by the market. They want to see real earnings growth . VOD have made a start on that. Half Year accounts will be critical where an increase in net assets must be shown.

There is a third way, accumulated profits reinvested in the business. VOD decided to give any profits away in divs and buybacks, and borrow to grow. It's why the accumulated losses section is €120bn. €50bn ish of that is the divs they have paid out over the years. They have over €60bn of bonds, therefore they have issued bonds to pay a div.

Not the best long term business model. It panders to short term investors wanting gains today, and long term holders are left holding a depreciating bag. How long can they keep the merry-go-round spinning?

Taj's ranting set me thinking about Verizon, so dug out a few old news stories. The BBC story dated 2nd Sept 2013 on the sale has a picture of an old guy sat at a computer with caption. 'Vodafone shareholder Stan Grierson says he will reinvest his additional dividend'. A long term mistake as it turned out as VOD was priced over £2.

VOD is not in value territory yet. I would tred carefully putting more in here. Diverting your div to other assets is a good way to diversify risk.

WKP is set fair to profit from changed working practices or a return to pre-pandemic practises. Win win.

Will just take a little time for that to be reflected in the valuations.

Not forgetting the 10 year planning battle. If Demir have any sense, they'll pull out as AAZ did.

"Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be a more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks."
Mr W Buffett

"You my not realise a loss by not selling, but you should not ignore it"
Mr Moleman

They should overlay the gold targets on a sat image so the locals can see who's houses will be demolished.

Well I can't get starlink yet so keeping the VOD unlimited data card in the 4g modem. Every little helps to get VOD through a likely turgid August on the markets, as it always used to be.

Mind you, it will take 233m years for my £25 a month to pay off the debt.