Member Info for mole_man99

Relevance to VOD? I can't read the article.

Where do you get 77p figure for property. I get 64p. Freehold property 249.9m/shares in issue 390m.

That won't be the reason. It's a straighforward part sale to offset tax from vested shares as part of the pay package.

I'm afraid, it's just general sell off as the pressure has been from the sell side post div.

It's not low enough for me SIDI. Just my personal view with personal price targets, and compared to alternatives I feel have more room to go up, so my funds are there. VOD needs to drop quite a bit more to tempt me to move funds about.

Next earnings release is all important to see if they can keep growing earnings in Germany and stop the losses elsewhere. Till then, the SP is probably at the mercy of the general market mood.

Growth and future tech is stormin again. NVDA $800 as it looks certain to mop up ARM for example.

It takes big money away from the likes of VOD. May be part of what is going on with a larger drop after div than expected.

If you fall much more, I might even buy some.

Dan, VOD's PE is 375 with restricted growth hope and massive debts in a mature industry. It's far more overvalued than TSLA.

They are little less forgiving on yahoo forums. Mostly Americans buying the ADR's.

User @Dan says (have you been moonlighting dan?) 'I curse the day I bought this trash.'

@Erika 'Sell this cr@p'

@someone 'Schwab gives this garbage an A rating? I won't trust their analysts!'

It's never too late to sell SIDI, if you decide there is somewhere better for your funds. Don't fall the 'not a loss till you sell' dillusion.

I can't hep myself. All 3 points are in reality not correct. VOD's complicated accounts hide reality for the casual investor, which is what irks me about it.

1. Div is not covered by genuine net profit. They need to borrow to pay it and have done for years and inestors lose out with declining net assets and equity.
2. The share buyback is only funded by selling assets, the towers. It is only being done to counter some of the dillution from convertible bond which could not be bought back, as they have no cash. There is another €2.5bn convertible coming in March 22.
3. Expansion is paid for by debt, not cash generation.

US markets had a bit of a tear end of session as Powell played down the inflation threat meaning rising rates are less likely. It may help VOD get over the ex-div speed bump.

There was quite a volume spike yesterday. Highest since the pandemic and forth highest since 2015. Retail and institutions jostling in for that div perhaps? What they do after record date is the question.

I have a more global perspective myself and I find UK media talk to be largely irrelevant to my investing strategy so don't watch it. UK centric issues are not so high on my agenda as the companies I invest in draw the majority of their revenue from outside UK. Those who are in the UK will survive regardless of the latest temporary issues the powers that be try to create.

As a VOD investor, you should also not get too distracted by UK market. The profit comes from Germany.

I am honoured you find me intelligent. I am not sure what is wrong with learning from sources, and freely admit that is what I do.

Investors will do much better long term if they can tune out and ignore the media, which is distracting background noise reporting on what has already happened, so it's already priced in the market.

Never heard of GB News or woke, and I am happy, the kids are healthy, and my long term portfolio returns are great for me.

Lesson in there somwhere.

Dan you could get back to the £2 glory days if an awful lot of ducks line up in a row.

With VOD mainly seen as a div play by both retail and institutions, then it needs to get post tax earnings up to around €6bn to give a 6% div with 1.5X cover at a £2 SP. That will be a long road I think for VOD.

A succession of positive half year reports showing strong organic revenue growth in all markets, not just Germany with others declining, will be a start. The market would need to build confidence the earning trend is upwards over a few earnings periods to start rerating up.

Meanwhile, the inflation/rising rates risk could make the 6% div less attractive, pushing up the yield demanded to hold VOD shares, which would put downward pressure on the SP.

The question holders need to be asking is how can it get EBIT to €10bn. Can it get EBIT to €10bn? An EBIT of €10bn would approx give it €6bn post normal tax and the interest on that debt. I say normal tax, as VOD's tax rate is out of line with stated earnings. That would need deeper analysis.

The market can rate companies on other metrics, like FCF or enterprise value or just sentiment, but I do think the div yield is what VOD is all about, and the safety of that yield comes down to good old fashioned earnings after tax.

Sorry if some people don't like to read opposing views, but I offer up some opinion to help potential investors looking for a safe div for their pension at least think and look alittle deeper.

I see very little offered from the bulls to back up their case. Hope that it goes to £2, but no real opinion on why it can.

I don't watch bloomberg TV but do absorb from many many resources, and reading of course. I always always recommend you start with 'Intelligent Investor' It's the book from the man that made Warren what he is. You will apply the various ideas to VOD as you read through and see what I see, then perhaps we can have a discussion.

I will not trot on thanks.

PS, I notice someone below copy pasted one of my posts, so someone is listening.

It's been the Conroy way for 20 years. Say nothing, until you need to raise money. It used to be 'finding' new gold. Currently it is hanging the hope of a JV over investors. Whether it is signed or not, it is just the latest way to keep the hope merry-goround spinning.
If it is signed, new discoveries will be used to get the SP up to raise more money as the planning process drags on and CGNR still needs to pay the wages, or contribute more to keep it's place in the JV. If a mine ever does open, CGNR wil be so dilluted by then that the SP will probably be below today's.

I am sure the SP will pop if it is signed. A great chance to get out, or spend years in agony as a shareholder.

Yes Dan other sectors/companies are effected negatively by inflation. Most of them probably, but if they have a strong moat within their sector, they can survive it. VOD has no moat when it comes to pricing though, so if a competitor with less debt to service does not raise prices, VOD will find it hard to do it before them.
I have no VOD to dump. I just like to point out the counter view to the safe div philosophy, having got burned myself some years back.

High inflation would be bad for VOD as it's input costs inflate, but it has little power to raise product prices by the same, the telecomms sector being a bit cut throat as they race to the bottom to get customers.

Just got an email from VOD trying to give me a years free broadband to sign up for 3 years of business broadband.

Eggs in one basket is fine, if it's the right basket. The chances of picking the one basket that outperforms the market are so slim though, which is why you should diversify to some extent.
Here ends the moley lesson.