Stefan Bernstein explains how the EU/Greenland critical raw materials partnership benefits GreenRoc. Watch the full video here.
The share price should be helped if vanadium prices continue their upward trajectory for the rest of the year as forecast. It should then it should reach $60.
That would mean an average of around $45 for the whole of 2021.
USD / ZAR exchange rate is also moving in our favour at 14.4 today.
Lots of news to be expected soon in the short term as well.
1. Bushveld Energy reorganisation.
2. CellCube / Enerox relaunch is due.
3. Mustang Energy ?
Some statistics for FeV 80% across the 3 main markets.
Q1 average price $30.5
Q2 average price $37.5
Average price for year to date $33.9
Current average price $43
My estimate of BMN C1 + C2 = $35.4/kg at 3,500 MtV/pa
Utility scale (40 MWh+) planned VRFB projects (4.5 tonnes of V per MWh)
1,000 MWh------- China - Jiangsu TianWan nuclear station (4,500 tonnes)
1,000 MWh------- China - Jiangsu offshore wind integration (4,500 tonnes)
---800 MWh------ China - Ningxia energy storage power station (3,600 tonnes)
---800 MWh------ China - Shijiazhuang (3,600 tonnes)
---500 MWh------ China - Hubei Zaoyang Ph 2 (VRB Energy) (2,250 tonnes)
---500 MWh------ China - Hubei Zaoyang (VRB Energy & Pingfan) (2,250 t)
---500 MWh------ Australia - VRB Energy (2,250 tonnes)
---400 MWh------ China - Dalian (Rongke/UET) stage 2 (1,800 tonnes)
---400 MWh------ China - Yancheng (Shanghai Electric Group) (1,800 tonnes)
---400 MWh------ China - Wuhan (1,800 tonnes)
---400 MWh------ China - Hubei (Pueng/Pingfan/Gaoxin project (1,800 tonnes)
---320 MWh------ Eskom BESS phase 2 (50%) (1,440 tonnes max)
---300 MWh------ Australia - Pangea, Port Augusta (CellCube) (1,350 tonnes)
---200 MWh------ China - VRB Energy project TBA H1 2021 (900 tonnes)
---180 MWh------Bushveld Minerals self generation project (810 tonnes)
-----60 MWh------ China - Hongyanhe, Dalian (Rongke) (270 tonnes)
-----51 MWh------Japan - Abira Town Hokkaido (Sumitomo Elec) (230 tonnes)
-----40 MWh------ China - Tuoshan, Dalian (Rongke) (180 tonnes)
-----40 MWh------ China - Lejia, Dalian (Rongke) (180 tonnes)
-------?--------------China - VRB Energy / Hanloon Energy power station
One off total of 35,510 tonnes of vanadium required (over next 1-3 years ?)
Global vanadium production in 2019 - 111,225 tonnes
---------------------------------
And then add on all the smaller Invinity / Enerox type projects.
The annual report is now available here https://tinyurl.com/akj6ytvx
There is more info than in the RNS.
There is also confirmation that Bushveld Energy will be participating in at least two South African BESS tenders this year.
"Participating in large upcoming battery energy storage tenders in South Africa. These include the World Bank-funded BESS programme at Eskom, which has already issued 827 MWh in tender opportunities.
Another is the 513 MW battery procurement programme announced by the Independent Power Programme Procurement Office. This tender is expected to be issued in H2 2021 by the DMRE"
Add this to the Peter Oldacre / Enerox connection established yesterday and we have some evidence of things moving in the right direction to get some PR out there for BE.
They've obviously got something they want to promote.
https://tinyurl.com/ynw94jhk
Bid deadline for Eskom Phase 1 package 1 at Skaapvlei is now June 14th.
Bid deadline for Eskom Phase 1 package 2 at Melkhout, Pongola and Elandskop is now June 15th.
Package 3 remains June 15th.
https://tenderbulletin.eskom.co.za/
Utility scale (40 MWh+) planned VRFB projects (4.5 tonnes of V per MWh)
1,000 MWh------- China - Jiangsu TianWan nuclear station (4,500 tonnes)
1,000 MWh------- China - Jiangsu offshore wind integration (4,500 tonnes)
---800 MWh------ China - Ningxia energy storage power station (3,600 tonnes)
---800 MWh------ China - Shijiazhuang (3,600 tonnes)
---500 MWh------ China - Hubei Zaoyang Ph 2 (VRB Energy) (2,250 tonnes)
---500 MWh------ China - Hubei Zaoyang (VRB Energy & Pingfan) (2,250 t)
---500 MWh------ Australia - VRB Energy (2,250 tonnes)
---400 MWh------ China - Dalian (Rongke/UET) stage 2 (1,800 tonnes)
---400 MWh------ China - Yancheng (Shanghai Electric Group) (1,800 tonnes)
---400 MWh------ China - Wuhan (1,800 tonnes)
---400 MWh------ China - Hubei (Pueng/Pingfan/Gaoxin project (1,800 tonnes)
---320 MWh------ Eskom BESS phase 2 (50%) (1,440 tonnes max)
---300 MWh------ Australia - Pangea, Port Augusta (CellCube) (1,350 tonnes)
---200 MWh------ China - VRB Energy project TBA Q1 2021 (900 tonnes)
---180 MWh------Bushveld Minerals self generation project (810 tonnes)
---166 MWh------ Eskom BESS phase 1 package 2 (50%) (747 tonnes max)
---160 MWh------ Eskom BESS phase 1 package 1 (50%) (720 tonnes max)
-----82 MWh------ Eskom BESS phase 1 package 3 (50%) (369 tonnes max)
-----60 MWh------ China - Hongyanhe, Dalian (Rongke) (270 tonnes)
-----51 MWh------Japan - Abira Town Hokkaido (Sumitomo Elec) (230 tonnes)
-----40 MWh------ China - Tuoshan, Dalian (Rongke) (180 tonnes)
-----40 MWh------ China - Lejia, Dalian (Rongke) (180 tonnes)
-------?--------------China - VRB Energy / Hanloon Energy power station
One off total of 37,346 tonnes of vanadium required (over next 1-3 years ?)
Global vanadium production in 2019 - 111,225 tonnes
My guess is that BMN will 100% fund any future expansion of the electrolyte plant from FCF and thus the IDC stake will get diluted.
So at 400MWh capacity BMN will have 55% of 200 MWh plus 100% of 200 MWh = 310 MWh or 77.5%.
At the maximum 800 MWh that goes up to 88.7%.
That's assuming that BMN control 100% of BELCO, which should happen soon given that we've been told "As the project progresses into procurement and construction, Bushveld will transfer its interest in the electrolyte manufacturing plant company, Bushveld Electrolyte Company, to its vanadium production operations, alongside Vametco and Vanchem".
It remains to be seen how Mikhail will be compensated for this but hopefully it will be via an increased BMN shareholding.
faramog - that refers to an agreement with the IDC made in 2016.
https://tinyurl.com/7pdbs8m6
There's absolutely no reason why the share price couldn't reach £2 in two years time.
Consider the following scenario.
1. The new normal vanadium price is now $40 which generates around $60m of net profit.
2. The electrolyte plant is running at full capacity of 200 MWh and the expansion to 400 MWh is underway to satisfy demand from Invinity and Enerox.
3. The rental company VERL is announcing a new rental contract every month for new VRFB projects.
4. BMN has won several Eskom tenders and is in partnership with Abengoa building several PV + BESS projects in South Africa.
5. BMN & Enerox have now set up a VRFB assembly factory in South Africa and now plan to double it's size to cope with demand.
6. Following the government relaxation of self generation rules, the mini-grid market in South Africa has now taken off and Bushveld Energy now has a solid and growing pipeline of projects.
7. The Lemur project has been sold off giving BMN a significant cash injection.
8. Now that Lemur has been sold and BMN are now on the main market, institutional investors are scrabbling to build a stake in this booming green energy company!
9. Mining of ore has started at Mokopane with vanadium offtake agreements in place.
10. A DFS for a 10,000 mtvpa greenfield processing plant at Mokopane is underway.
11. An offtake agreement for the iron and phosphate is now in place.
None of the CLN's have been converted into BMN shares so far otherwise we would have been told about it by RNS.
Yes, I know that they can be forward sold, but Philip Clegg, the portfolio manager at Orion has stated
"Orion is delighted to become a cornerstone investor in Bushveld. We have been attracted to the quality and growth profile of Bushveld's portfolio of mining and processing assets for some time, and we also recognise the leading role that the Company has assumed in the supply of crucial raw materials to the vanadium redox flow battery industry. We are looking forward to partnering with Bushveld as it continues on its growth trajectory and supporting the Company as it realises its full potential."
I know they're only words but there's nothing to indicate otherwise so far.
Battery grade vanadium pentoxide 99% price increases 1.6% yesterday.
I believe this is the grade used to produce electrolyte for VRFBs.
http://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html
It's worth revisiting this Crux interview from 27 mins onward.
Whatever Fortune had got planned is now 6 months nearer to being realised.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fX4pIRRzB9Q
"The Company also announces that going forward Bushveld Energy updates will be issued separately as standalone announcements."
They must be confident of having something to say in the near future otherwise they wouldn't have chosen now to separate the newsflow.
Hopefully it'll be the start of Mikhail's "dozens of imminent VRFB projects".
Or the "relaunch" of BE.
I'm expecting the corporate structure to be simplified by the merging BE & BMN to give 100% ownership of BE assets by BMN.
We've known for years that Bushveld aspires to build a VRFB industry in South Africa.
We also know that they collaborated with UET and Rongke Power in supplying the two Eskom trial batteries.
What we didn't know for sure is if Rongke Power would be involved in establishing a South African VRFB industry.
Page 16 of this BESS Localisation & Industrialisation Study shows that all 3 partners are collaborating on this goal.
https://www.mediafire.com/file/6cn5l25nck0ecf0/12-BESS+Localisation+Study.pdf/file