Wres production should be unaffected by the Spanish lockdown.
"The Royal Decree issued today says citizens will only be able to use public roads for the following reasons:
1. Acquisition of food, pharmaceuticals and basic necessities.
2. Visits to health centres.
3. Travel to the workplace to perform work or business-related activities.
4. Return to the place of habitual residence.
5. Assistance and care for the elderly, minors, dependents, people with disabilities or especially vulnerable people.
6. Visits to financial entities.
7. Due to force or need.
8. Any other activity of an analogous nature duly justified.
The circulation of private vehicles on public roads will only be allowed to carry out the aforementioned activities, or to refuel at petrol stations."
And talking of vanadium demand...
20,000 MWh pa - China - Fangchenggang (250,000 tonnes per year)
--------?------------- China - Ningde, Fujian (30,000 tonnes per year)
------------------------ China - Guangxi Energy Storage Material (25,000 tonnes per year) ?
1,000 MWh pa -- Saudi Arabia - Gigawattfactory (5,000 tonnes per year)
1,000 MWh------- China - Jiangsu (5,000 tonnes)
----800 MWh------ China - Dalian (4,000 tonnes in 2 stages)
----800 MWh------ South Africa - Eskom BESS phase 1 (4,000 tonnes)
----640 MWh------ South Africa - Eskom BESS phase 2 (3,200 tonnes)
----500 MWh------ China - Hubei Zaoyang Phase 2 (2,500 tonnes)
----400 MWh------ China - Wuhan (2,000 tonnes)
----200 MWh pa - South Africa - Bushveld Energy (1,000 tonnes per year)
----200 MWh pa - USA - New York (Margaret Lake) ph 1 (1,000 tonnes pa)
----200 MWh------ Australia - Port Augusta (CellCube) (1,000 tonnes)
-----40 MWh------ China - Hubei Zaoyang Phase 1 (200 tonnes)
-----40 MWh------ China - Wafangdian Zhenhai Wind Farm (200 tonnes)
Total of 334,100 tonnes of vanadium
K3VMC (or anyone) - I'm hoping you may be able to shed some light on how much data the Spanish investors may have had access to in the placing this week.
Do you think they were given up to date financial forecasts for the current year by the company ? Recent revenue from the current quarter ?
I'm just trying to gauge why they had the confidence to invest at 0.36p when they could have bought in the open market. I know that would have forced the share price up, but in this current market they could probably have netted a good chunk.
It's a shame the rest of the market hasn't (yet) got the same level of confidence.
Magotteaux is the likely source of the Spanish vertical shaft impactor to be installed at Regua.
gug - just to be clear, I'm quoting gross revenue as I don't have the data to get to net revenue, but I don't think it makes a big difference to ebitda on an annual basis. Maybe I'll subtract a small percentage from the gross revenue in future to get it a bit closer.
Ps. I'm not an accountant so dyor.
gug - the $50m revenue number is from my previous post. $46m from tungsten concentrate plus $4.2m from tin.
Agree that the company numbers are all over the place, which is why I prefer to work them out myself using current prices.
Ebitda is a bit harder to pin down at this stage as we don't know the exact opex achieved and probably won't until we get to full production. So I've used the $110/mtu number from my previous post which is only relevent at 100% production rates.
So opex is 110 x 200 tonnes x 100 (to get mtu) = $2.2m per month or $26.4m pa.
Subtract that from revenue to get ebitda.
Note that the opex includes a $12 contingency.
MM stated in a previous interview that he had "line of sight" on $100/mtu opex, although it wasn't clear if that included the tin credit or not.
Regarding the revenue comments from MM, it could be that he's trying to understate in order to manage expectations. He will be well aware of his failures to deliver in the past and this is one of the reasons for the low share price.
To confirm what I thought regarding the $36m revenue comment, in a recent interview here, https://tinyurl.com/rkter4l
he confirms that the $36m in revenue and $20m ebitda is based on the FID. He also confirms current APT price of $240.
So I stand by my total revenue calculation of over $50m per year at 100% production at current prices. That's around $23m of ebitda if the opex target is hit.
gug - rather than rely on a comment made by MM in an interview, I find it's best to do my own research and revenue calculations.
Page 12 in the Financial Investment Decision
quotes the 80% of APT price as the product sale price received. This has since been confirmed by MM.
The FID page 4 states that the opex is $94/mtu but this includes a tin credit of $16. I prefer to work on an opex of $110 (94+16) and work out the tin revenue seperately. This is even more important now that we know the tin recovery is a lot higher than was expected.
So with APT at $240 we get 200 tonnes x 100 (to get mtu) x 240 x 80% = $3.84m of tungsten concentrate revenue per month or $46m per year.
Tin 52% concentrate production at 40 tonnes per month gives another $350,000 per month revenue or $4.2m per year.
I suspect that MM's comment of $3m per month revenue was lifted from the FID where the WO3 production is assumed to be less than 200 tonnes per month.
Best to DYOR. The new Spanish investors will have and must be happy that they will see a profit on their 0.36p investment.
Also, don't forget that MM recently converted £200k of his own money from a loan into shares.
Byron was a NED and an advisor to MM. Wres wasn't his main job.
I think that placing premium is the largest I've ever seen.
It's a huge endoresment and the new investors must be confident in the project.
They will have had access to the most recent data available.
gug - La Parrilla production rate should now be at or near 80% of design capacity according to MM here at 4 mins in.
So that's about 160 tonnes per month which would generate $3.4m in revenue per month.
A consolidated loan over 10 years at 4% would see interest payments of under $200k per month. So far we haven't been given any opex for Regua. Capex is €1.5m.