With the construction of the Bushveld Energy electrolyte plant in H2 this year, they will need some projects to supply.
With an initial electrolyte output of 200 MWh, it only needs part of the Eskom tender for the plant to go straight to full production. That would divert 900 tonnes of vanadium a year out of our current sales. That would be the trigger to greenlight the expansion of both the electrolyte plant and also Bushveld Minerals' vanadium output. That's a binary event which should happen in H2 this year.
Although B.E. is highly likely to get a portion of the Eskom contract, it isn't essential. We know that Mikhail has fielded hundreds of enquiries, so he only needs to land a small number of substantial contracts to generate 200 MWh of electrolyte production. Invinity will generate some requirement, but this is likely to be small in the near term.
One South African project which is on my radar is the 60 MWh vrfb storage for the Vogelstruisfontein SolarReserve project. I'm not sure if this is still planned, but there's a BMN connection and it would take nearly a third of the first years electrolyte output.
There's a potential new large scale 800 MWh VRFB project in Shijiazhuang https://tinyurl.com/ycksbl3y
That will need around 3,600 tonnes of vanadium.
I've updated the table of large scale vrfb projects to use 4.5 tonnes of vanadium per MWh down from 5t. This seems to be closer to the latest thinking on the amount of vanadium required in current electrolyte production. Where the project concerned is electrolyte production (Fangchenggang), I've used 1 mtV per 8 tonnes of electroyte.
2mt electrolyte--- China - Fangchenggang (250,000 tonnes per year)
--------?------------- China - Ningde, Fujian (30,000 tonnes per year)
3,000 MWh pa -- Saudi Arabia, Dammam (13,500 tonnes per year)
1,000 MWh------- China - Jiangsu (4,500 tonnes)
---800 MWh------ China - Shijiazhuang (3,600 tonnes)
---800 MWh------ China - Dalian (3,600 tonnes in 2 stages)
---800 MWh------ South Africa - Eskom BESS phase 1 (3,600 tonnes)
---640 MWh------ South Africa - Eskom BESS phase 2 (2,880 tonnes)
---500 MWh------ China - Hubei Zaoyang Phase 2 (2,250 tonnes)
---400 MWh------ China - Wuhan (1,800 tonnes)
---200 MWh pa - South Africa - Bushveld Energy (900 tonnes per year)
---200 MWh pa - USA - New York (Margaret Lake) ph 1 (900 tonnes pa)
---200 MWh------ Australia - Port Augusta (CellCube) (900 tonnes)
-----40 MWh------ China - Hubei Zaoyang Phase 1 (180 tonnes)
-----40 MWh------ China - Wafangdian Zhenhai Wind Farm (180 tonnes)
Total of 318,790 tonnes of vanadium (based on 4.5 tonnes per MWh)
I realise that Fangchenggang skews the numbers and that it's going to produce enough vanadium to satisfy its own electrolyte production, but it will still need a raw material supply.
CowboyInvestor - thanks for that. Yes it is the area that I was looking at.
There's certainly been lots more development in the area, particularly in the square shaped peninsular to the west.
I've also found a 2020 Landsat image here as well which has better resolution but is probably not as recent as yours. https://tinyurl.com/yc9mv72d
As this such a huge vanadium electrolyte manufacturing project (2m tonnes pa), I'm interested in how far along this project is, so I've dug up the following limited timeline.
21 April 2017 https://tinyurl.com/y8bll8gb
On April 21, the Fangchenggang Municipal People’s Government signed agreements with China Energy Storage Materials Co., Ltd. and China Energy Storage Holdings Co., Ltd. to jointly build vanadium and titanium in the Fangchenggang Economic Development Zone New Material Industrial Park and Energy Storage Industrial Park.
8 April 2018 https://tinyurl.com/y7bvut8c
Next to Qisha Port, the Energy Storage New Material Industrial Park invested by China Energy Storage Materials (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. is under construction. This project, with a total investment of more than 30 billion yuan, will become the largest new energy storage material production base in China when completed. It will use South Africa's high-grade vanadium-titanium magnetite resources to produce a new generation of high-purity vanadium electrolyte, provide core materials for the world's most advanced vanadium batteries, and sell them to all parts of the world, let the world know "Made in China".
So, in April 2018 it was reported that the project was under construction.
Note the South African connection.
So where is it now?
It seems that Quisha Port is actually spelt Qishazhen in China and this is in the Gangkou District, Fangchenggang.
Looking at Google Earth there is large area of construction just to the west of Qishazhen. The imagery is dated October 2018.
I might be barking up the wrong tree, but if anyone wants to have a look it's at 21°33'30.78" N 108°26'44.33" E.
Has anyone got access to more up to date satellite imagery?
"Fangchenggang Energy Storage Industrial Park project - upon completion, the project will provide an annual output of 250,000 tons of high-purity vanadium."
That's a huge amount of vanadium. I'm assuming that this can only be obtained by processing ore.
Can China source that amount of ore internally or will they have to go to Russia and South Africa?
Just to confuse things, the article below contradicts my previous link and states an output of 20GWh, not 20GW.
Either way, the effect on vandium supply and demand will be neutral, as the project will produce enough vanadium to supply its electrolyte requirements.
Spedders - thanks for pointing out this apparent discrepancy. I'm glad someone is paying attention !
Lindon is on the right track. I had wrongly allocated 20GW as the energy when it is actually the power output.
The projected output of electrolyte for this project is 1,900,000 tonnes per annum. There is approximately 1,000 tonnes of vanadium required for 8,000 tonnes of electrolyte, so 1.9m tpa would require 237,500 tonnes of vanadium.
Good find SG.
"The facility will have an annual production capacity of 3 GWh and will be among the biggest Flow Batteries production facilities worldwide."
3GWh is treble what I had got previously noted down for this project.
I've confirmed that number from the SCHMID website.
That increases the demand for vanadium in large scale VRFB's (40 MWh plus) to 344,100 tonnes over the next few years.
Add in all the smaller systems to be deployed as well and that equals a major supply deficit.
20,000 MWh pa - China - Fangchenggang (250,000 tonnes per year)
--------?------------- China - Ningde, Fujian (30,000 tonnes per year)
---------------------- China - Guangxi Energy Storage Material (25,000 tonnes pa)
3,000 MWh pa -- Saudi Arabia, Dammam - Schmid(15,000 tonnes per year)
1,000 MWh------- China - Jiangsu (5,000 tonnes)
---800 MWh------ China - Dalian (4,000 tonnes in 2 stages)
---800 MWh------ South Africa - Eskom BESS phase 1 (4,000 tonnes)
---640 MWh------ South Africa - Eskom BESS phase 2 (3,200 tonnes)
---500 MWh------ China - Hubei Zaoyang Phase 2 (2,500 tonnes)
---400 MWh------ China - Wuhan (2,000 tonnes)
---200 MWh pa - South Africa - Bushveld Energy (1,000 tonnes per year)
---200 MWh pa - USA - New York (Margaret Lake) ph 1 (1,000 tonnes pa)
---200 MWh------ Australia - Port Augusta (CellCube) (1,000 tonnes)
-----40 MWh------ China - Hubei Zaoyang Phase 1 (200 tonnes)
-----40 MWh------ China - Wafangdian Zhenhai Wind Farm (200 tonnes)
Total of 344,100 tonnes of vanadium
Looking back at the 2019 numbers, Vametco produced 2,832 mtV and sold 2,392 mtV.
That's a difference of exactly 440 tonnes which is coincidentally, exactly the amount of vanadium needed to produce electrolyte for a 100 MWh VRFB.
I made a note in Jan 2020 that the latest estimate was 440t of vanadium per 100MWh but didn't make a note of the source.
Anyone know where this number came from?
Pickler - despite what fatbanker thinks, under the Companies Act of 2006, anyone should be able to view the shareholder register. For shareholders it is free, whilst non-shareholders may be charged a fee. Just ask the company.
Some more detail on the one third of workforce issue here.
It seems that the workforce will be phased back in a third at a time.
Pdub - wres production wasn't directly affected by CV19 on 13.03.2020. No staff have been infected to date.
14.03.2020. - wres production was unnaffected by the lockdown at that stage when I made my comment. It wasn't until 2 weeks later that the mine closed down.
knutsfordnotary - according to the link I posted, BMN can resume production at 100% but only using 30% of the workforce under level 4 lockdown. If they can achieve 100% production with a third of the workforce, then some serious cost cutting needs to made !