Member Info for mogwhy

The ARC interim update now shows cash at the end of this year as $8.5m (down from $26.3 forecast in July) and only $5.3m at the end of next year.
$20m wiped out just like that unless the V price reverses hard.
This is why they need to strengthen the balance sheet.

No capacity stated on the drawings.

jimbo66 - I'll stick with the technical drawings published by Smale and Partners Architects which show where phase 2 will be.

jimbo66 - the current build is phase 1.
Phase 2, which is a slightly smaller size, is an extension of phase 1 immediately to the north.
There's enough room to fit it in between the next adjacent factory.
I assume it's a bit smaller as they won't need more office space.
So it looks like phase 1 & 2 will total 400 MWh.

Pdub - fair comment but I'm afraid the old adage of "the trend is your friend until the bend at the end" usually applies.
This applies to both the share price and V price as things stand.
But yes, things could be rescued by a reversal.
It would need the V price to average over $49 through Q4 to have any chance of breaking even this year.
That looks very unlikely.

WhileyD - "provided vanadium prices keep above cost ".
This is the big problem which is mostly out of Fortunes control.

Last day of Q3 and the average price for Q3 is $39.5 which gives a realised price of $34. Cost per unit sold in H1 was $39.7 but that cost will reduce for H2 with a reduction in sustaining capital but it looks like it won't be enough to offset the lower V price.

Average price for the year to date is now $35.7 which gives a realised price of $30.7 against an H1 cost of $39.7 and probably around $36 for the full year.

Negative cash flow and servicing a $54m debt is not a good place to be despite having a healthy but declining cash balance.

And only a couple of years ago at the end of 2018 they had $42m cash and no debt.

https://bit.ly/3ohV7oG

And there you have it at 39:30 - near term objective - to strengthen the balance sheet and increase cash flow through margin expansion and debt reduction.

There's no real increase in production in the near term and the scope for reducing fixed costs is limited.

So how will they strengthen the balance sheet ?

Skibba - I haven't changed my mind. H1 is in the past.

With the continuing decline in V prices and no sign of it slowing, the outlook has changed from earlier in the year when we were all looking at the rising price and the promise of a return to profitability.

LB21 - there was a $10.8m EBITDA loss in H1.
This is a loss making company for the forseeable future with debt of $54m.
Kiln 3 won't be ramped up to full production for at least another year.

Alfacomp - that is very true.
It will be shareholders who have bought their own shareholdings that will pay the price in dilution and share price destruction.

Fortune has gambled the expansion of the company on the price of vanadium and the way it looks at the moment is that he has lost.

However I juggle the numbers for 2021, I can't get the total group costs below $36 which means that the average V price needs to be above $42 after taking into account the discount that is applied to BMN sales.

With the average year to date running at under $36 and declining they are heading for another loss this year.

Q3 numbers should look ok but it won't rescue the whole year.

They will almost certainly need to raise cash to see the expansion plans through despite FM saying they were funded, unless there is a dramatic reversal in V price.

"In the days following the recent "thermal event" at a major battery project in Southern California, for example, we saw a tremendous increase in the number of enquiries seeking to understand how Invinity's VFBs can provide an alternative long-duration, high-throughput utility-grade energy storage solution with significantly lower risk."

Excellent interim report from IES confirming the growth in the VRFB market.

"Movements in the commercial opportunity pipeline primarily reflect a significant increase in both the number and average size of prospective projects that have been qualified by Invinity's Commercial team over the course of 2021, driven in large part by significantly increased inbound interest in the Group's products and solutions. The number of opportunities categorised as either "Upside" or "Base" has increased 40% since May 2021, whilst early stage "pipeline" interest has continued to grow steadily, up 13% over the same period."

The Chinese government has control over steel production but not on steel consumption.
China steel consumers will get their requirements from other Far East producers.

We already knew that the low point was reached in H1 with low but increasing V prices and higher costs.
In real terms there was a small loss after including the IES and ATM sales profit. That's a pretty good result from the challenging conditions.

The average realised price in H1 was $29.2 and the average price in Q3 is now at $39.8 so we are seeing significantly higher margins in Q3.
My estimate of the average price for H1 was $33.9 against the LMB number of $33.4 so my weekly log of V price data points is reasonably accurate.

Looks like a 10 bagger from here for those with patience !

Maybe they're referring to the electric motors which may be sourced from Tesla.

"Its electric motors will be driven by 20-ft (6 m) Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries"

Is this why Enerox are scaling up to 30 MW (240 MWh) by 2022 and 150 MW (1,200 MWh) by 2025 ?

Portliner aiming to build 500 VRFB powered ships per year.

https://bit.ly/39AWBlu

The Netherlands: Port-Liner Project

Based in the Netherlands, Ton van Meegen, inland waterways entrepreneur in the Nijmegen Area, Netherlands has started up Port-Liner Holdings CV to develop a fleet of fully-electric crewless container barges to transport freight initially from the ports of Antwerp, Amsterdam, and Rotterdam.

Called “Tesla ships”, One Kempenaar-sized vessel called the Tempsnip is 170 ft (52 m ) long and 19ft ( 6.7m) wide, and able to carry twenty-four 20ft (6 m) containers weighing up to 468 tons (425 tonnes).
Its electric motors will be driven by 20-ft (6 m) Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries (VRFB), giving it 15 hours of power, charged on shore by the carbon-free energy provider Eneco.

Although designed to operate without any crew, EC52 will be manned initially. Adjustable wheelhouses enable them to go under 5m60 (16 ft) bridges, while by flooding its ballast tanks, it can further reduce its height.

The EC 110 version has a length of 328 ft (100 m) and a width of 38 ft (11m45), to load 14 containers of 20 ft (6 m). or 7 containers of 40 ft.(12 m) or any combination of the two sizes with four E-Powerboxes would have an action radius of about 30 hours (143 mi or 230km).
This allows the vessel to easily cover the Rotterdam/Antwerp/Duisburg
corridors, at competitive cost compared to conventional diesel propulsion.
The ship can be customized (dimensions, cargo type ) up to 7700 tons (7,000 tonnes).
Port-Liner submitted a project under which it will build five hybrid barges that will ply between De Kempen intermodal terminal in the Netherlands and Antwerp.
Thanks to these hybrid barges there will be 23 000 fewer diesel trucks on the roads annually and a reduction of about 18,000 tonnes per year of CO2.

According to a report from transportation news site Elektrek, the 100 millioneuro (US$122 million) project has been supported by a €7 million (US$8.6 million) subsidy from the European Union, with Loadstar also having reported that the Port of Antwerp had added a €200,000 (US$245,000) subsidy as part of a wider initiative to improve its port’s efficiency.
Port-Liner can build 500 of these ships per year.

USD/ZAR exchange rate is now at 15.0 and is thus helping to reduce costs.

investing.com has now updated it's US price.
Average price for Q3 was $38.2 in the US and $42.6 across the 3 main markets, so we're in the price range of between $40-$45 that Fortune called the sweet spot.