Member Info for mogwhy

BMN usually tell us that they receive the average price of the previous month.
The average for the whole of Q2 was approx $37.5.
At current prices the average for Q3 will be $42.8 across the 3 main markets.
So we have increasing margins due to both price increases and falling costs.
No one knows where the V price will go next, but that's how things stand at the moment.

This bit is key.

"Market participants estimate around 9.25t of vanadium pentoxide is used
in each MWh of vanadium storage battery.
China is expected to install around 30-60GWh of new energy storage capacity
by 2030, corresponding to 28,000-56,000 t/yr of extra demand for
vanadium pentoxide during 2021-2030."

Vanadium pentoxide is 56% vanadium, so this translates to 15,680 to 31,360 tonnes of extra vanadium demand every year on average until 2030 just in China.

Group costs will fall to around $30 in H2 with the increased production and less maintenance downtime. So as long as the V price stays above $30 they are making a profit.

The average price for H2 so far is just over $40.
If that average was maintained they would make about $17m in H2
If the average drops to the current price they would make around $10m in H2.

Obviously we don't know the capex burn rate, but ARCs forecast of $26m cash at year end down from $50m looks reasonable.

There's plenty of large scale VRFB projects in the pipeline led by China.
There's also the currently smaller scale projects from the likes of Enerox
who are planning to scale up to 1,200 MWh by 2025.
That's 6,000 tonnes of vanadium required by Enerox. Every year.
Then there's IES who are aiming for 10% of the market.

Utility scale (40 MWh+) planned VRFB projects (5 tonnes of V per MWh)

1,000 MWh------- China - Jiangsu TianWan nuclear station (5,000 tonnes)
1,000 MWh------- China - Jiangsu offshore wind integration (5,000 tonnes)
---800 MWh------ China - Ningxia energy storage power station (4,000 tonnes)
---800 MWh------ China - Shijiazhuang (4,000 tonnes)
---500 MWh------ China - Hubei Zaoyang Ph 2 (VRB Energy) (2,500 tonnes)
---500 MWh------ China - Hubei Zaoyang (VRB Energy & Pingfan) (2,500 t)
---500 MWh------ Australia - VRB Energy (2,500 tonnes)
---400 MWh------ China - Dalian (Rongke/UET) stage 2 (2,000 tonnes)
---400 MWh------ China - Yancheng (Shanghai Electric Group) (2,000 tonnes)
---400 MWh------ China - Wuhan (2,000 tonnes)
---400 MWh------ China - Hubei (Pueng/Pingfan/Gaoxin project (2,000 tonnes)
---300 MWh------ Australia - Pangea, Port Augusta (CellCube) (1,500 tonnes)
---200 MWh------ China - VRB Energy project TBA H1 2021 (1,000 tonnes)
---180 MWh------Bushveld Minerals self generation project (900 tonnes)
-----60 MWh------ China - Hongyanhe, Dalian (Rongke) (300 tonnes)
-----51 MWh------Japan - Abira Town Hokkaido (Sumitomo Elec) (255 tonnes)
-----40 MWh------ China - Tuoshan, Dalian (Rongke) (200 tonnes)
-----40 MWh------ China - Lejia, Dalian (Rongke) (200 tonnes)
-------?------------- China - VRB Energy / Hanloon Energy power station

One off total of 37,855 tonnes of vanadium required (over next 1-3 years ?)
Global vanadium production in 2020 - 109,418 tonnes

At last we have a timescale.

Commissioning date: 2nd quarter 2022

Slinkyfink - an electrolyte production facility produces electrolyte on an ongoing basis to the VRFB manufacturers.
If CellCube have 56 MWh of VRFBs to make every year as projected for 2022 they will need to be supplied with enough electrolyte every year to satisfy that demand.
It's nothing to do with the lifespan of the electrolyte or VRFB.

Typo - US Vanadium requires 280 tonnes of vanadium per annum.

The expansion at US Vanadiun to 2.25m litres per annum gives it a capacity of about 56 MWh. That puts Bushvelds 200 MWh facility into perspective.

Completed Electrolyte Production Facilities

1,000 MWh - China - Ankang, Shaanxi - Hua Yin Technology (5,000 tpa)
--700 MWh - China - Bolong New Materials (3,500 tonnes per annum)
------- ? ------- China - Panzhihua (Pangang)
------- ? ------- China - VRB Energy
----56 MWh - USA, US Vanadium, Hot Springs (250 tonnes per annum)
------- ? ------- UK - Oxkem (250 tonnes per annum)

Total of 9,030 tonnes of vanadium per annum

CellCubes projected manufacturing capacity by the end of 2022 is 240 MWh.
580,000 liters of electrolyte is only enough for 14.5 MWh.
So it could be that Bushvelds entire electrolyte output could be used by CellCube and they now realise that they need to look elsewhere to ensure enough supply.
If that's the case then the next expansion phase of the electrolyte plant to 400 MWh or more will be required very quickly.

Could VRB Energy be a potential partner for Bushveld Energy?
They haven't got the credentials to participate in the Eskom tenders, but they're only a small part of the overall African market.

"VRB Energy’s 100MW project in Hubei is among a growing number of 100MW flow battery projects being prioritized in China as part of its national energy storage policy and accelerated infrastructure investment in support of post-Covid economic growth. In addition, provinces from Xinjiang to Shandong are now requiring minimums of 5% to 20% energy storage to be installed with new solar and wind power development.

Beyond China, the company has stated it is in discussions with numerous developers and utilities in the U.S., Australia and South Africa for 100MW-class PV+VRB projects. Developers and utilities are attracted to the low levelized cost of energy (LCOE) that VRB-ESS deliver – with no cycle limits and no degradation of the vanadium electrolyte they are an ideal fit for the “heavy duty” daily cycling required for solar and wind integration to utility grids."

https://tinyurl.com/87bww9rt

Probably.
Fu Hongtao was the deputy general manager of Hua Qin Energy Storage Technology Co. Ltd.
The vice-president of Hua Yin Technology is also called Fu Hongtao, so looks like he's done well for himself.

It appears that Hua Yin Technology used to be called Huaqin Energy Storage Technology Co., Ltd. which I'd got listed as a planned electroyte production facility due for completion in Dec 2020.
This has got an annual output of 40,000m3 of electrolyte per annum.
From my notes I have 1,000 MWh of electrolyte = 40,000m3 so the vanadium required is about 5,000 tonnes per year.
So this one company alone will consume nearly 5% of global vanadium supply starting this year.
----------------
Planned electrolyte production (5 tonnes of vanadium per MWh)

2mt electrolyte- China - Fangchenggang (250,000 tonnes per year)
--------?------------ China - Ningde, Fujian (30,000 tonnes per year)
3,000 MWh pa -- Saudi Arabia, Dammam (15,000 tonnes per year)
1,650 MWh pa - China - Yichun - Jiangxi Yinhui New Energy (8,250 tpa)
1,000 MWh pa - China - Ankang, Shaanxi - Huaqin Energy (5,000 tpa)
---300 MWh pa - Australia - Vecco (1,500 tpa)
---200 MWh pa - South Africa - Bushveld Energy Phase 1 (1,000 tpa)
---200 MWh pa - USA - New York (Margaret Lake) Phase 1 (1,000 tpa)
--------?----------- - USA - Boston Largo

Total of 61,750 tonnes of vanadium per annum (exc. Fangchenggang)

Good find SG.
If the electrolyte production of Hua Yin technology is generating $247m revenue, does anyone want to have a bash at estimating the amount of vanadium being consumed per annum?

Glengarth - that's not the right question to ask, because it depends on other factors such as the achieved concentrate grade and the recovery rate.
See the example below.

https://tinyurl.com/f3yrenpt

The vanadium price uptrend is still intact. Retraces are normal.

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/

The rand exchange rate uptrend is still intact. Now 14.9

https://tinyurl.com/t83y8538

BMN is a profitable company and increasingly so as the costs reduce through the rest of this year.
The board just need to do their bit in promoting the company, especially the energy side.

More up to date details from the annual report.

Lemur Holdings is focused on coal energy projects.
Its flagship project is the Imaloto coal-to-power project in southwest Madagascar, which consists of four exploration permits and one mining and exploitation permit, covering a total area of about 81.25 square kilometres.
Imaloto is an integrated coal-fired power project. It includes a 136 Mt coal mine, a 60 MW power plant and a new transmission line stretching over 250 kilometres.
It is the only coal-to-power solution being developed in Madagascar. The power plant is scalable from the current planned 30 MW to 60 MW and the transmission line is expandable up to 500 kilometres.
The project has a total of 136 Mt JORC-compliant mineral resources, of which 92 Mt is in the measured and indicated category. In addition to a fully-executed mining exploitation
licence, Lemur has two exploration permits covering a combined 87.5 square kilometres in close proximity to the Imaloto Power Project. Imaloto is perfectly-positioned to address Madagascar’s persistent power supply challenges, particularly in its least-developed but mineral-rich southern region.
The southern region currently does not have a power grid and is almost entirely powered by isolated generators. In addition to substantially increasing the generation capacity in Madagascar, the initial 60 MW capacity of the Imaloto Power Project will form the basis for a power grid for the southern region.
This project is at an advanced stage. The feasibility studies for both the power plant and the transmission line were completed by Sinohydro, following a technical cooperation agreement signed in 2017. The Imaloto project has a full mining right for the coal mine as well as a 30-year Independent Power Producer concession from the government of Madagascar. Lemur has also concluded a 30-year Power Purchase Agreement for an initial 25 MW from JIRAMA, the state-owned utility.
Lemur appointed Bara Consulting to undertake the Definitive Feasibility Study (“DFS”) for its Imaloto coal mine in the first quarter of 2020. The DFS is currently in final draft form and ready for sign-off, subject to a site visit by the Competent Person.
Most Social and Environmental Impact Assessment studies have been completed and submission to the Ministry of the Environment is expected to occur in the second half of 2021. During the fourth quarter of 2020, Lemur appointed the Development Bank of Southern Africa as its Mandated Lead Arranger for the construction capital funding of up to US$155 million for the Imaloto Power Project.
Negotiations with the contractors for the EPC of the power station and transmission line are ongoing. However, final sign-off of EPC agreements has been delayed until site visits by contractors take place.
Lemur remains in discussions with potential strategic partners and the government of Madagascar on the implementation of the project.

Good find jimbo66 - lithium batteries won't be any good for a 9 hour duration requirement.
A 99 MWh VRFB would be the right size for an initial BE contract.

Conveniently, June 9th is exactly 4 months later than the original schedule.
That should mean that the final section of the roof of the building has now been installed.
Can anyone confirm from satellite imagery ?

Ta. When I get time I'll post up a revised timetable based on the original schedule.

Does anybody know which day in June the construction started ?