Member Info for MisterPositive

Petrochina JV is inevitable in my view.

Just a case of what Petrochina wants? JV or buyout our Block 20 ?

What price wil they pay ?
They paid SOCO $94m back in 2005.

At todays inflation adjusted valuation and higher Brent crude price, that should be more like $250- $300m atleast or higher in my view.

Heron oil production would go to Chinese refinery just like Petrochina own production, then sold back to Mongolia's domestic market which needs c 42,000 bopd.

Mongolia still imports shortfall from Russia for refined oil which is why Mongolia oil refinery is to be fast tracked for completion.

Route to market already been there for many years since Petrochina started producing from their Blocks 19 and 21. But there own production has declined from 25000 bopd at peak to under 19000 bopd. Heron increased Oil production will fill that shortfall for many years to come.

Hence negotiations to agree Oil price linked to Brent crude.

Hamm
I totally understand the frustration. You are not alone. Do not let emotion get in the way. Need to look at the future not past. Re-rate happens on future outlook and the wider macro market set up. Dont wanna miss out on the re-rate that is inevitable. Transformational year for MATD ahead despite all past shenanigans put together.

ATB, whatever you decide.

Iron ore $126 / tonne
Rhodium $17,000 / oz

Cannot rule out iron ore deal this year for Alien with our deep pocket neighbours.

Vosgi
Rhodium jumped 10% on Thursday (up $1550) to $16,300 / t.oz still below its $29,800 peak.

Rhodium is rare but needed in catalytic converters. We know currently 80% comes from South Africa.

Lets see how much Rhodium is hidden at Munni Munni.

Yeah. Some crazy XRF readings. 21000 g/t silver is a monster...i saw that and thought WTF !!!

Did they buy the XRF tool from Poundland ?

Will not complain though, if it came up close.

Petrochina JV not currently priced in but would be no surprise. Petrochina oil production has been declining over the years having peaked at 25000 bopd. Was 21000 bopd around 4 years ago and now just under 19000 bopd.

Their drop will be offset by increase in Production from Heron which is part of the same giant Oil field. Petrochina started with around 1500 bopd if i remember correctly around 25 years ago before ramping up Production by drilling additional wells as they are pretty cheap / low cost shallow drills. Heron Production is very important feed stock for the 30,000 bopd capacity refinery.

Domestic demand in Mongolia is c 42,000 bopd.
So there is already a shortfall met by imported refined oil currently. Mongolian Govt desperate to get domestic Oil production to increase and fill current shortfall.

Asking 3.30 for 200,000 shares now ???

Maestro
Agree. If we recalculate NPV10 on todays Brent crude price of $82.30 / bbl then NPV10 just for 60mmbo jumps to approx. $440m from $320m.

If we use both slightly higher recoverable oil % and Brent crude price, then NPV should be over Half Billion $$$.

This could be last chance of lower entry for anybody still on the fence. With news incoming any day, this can move higher without warning.
Imho.

I was using old estimates from Company presentation with NPV numbers for different base case scenarios.

Agree 100% with Brent crude now over $82 and most probably heading to over $100...

Happy Days.

You got 194 Mmbo from just Heron-1
Applying 30% recovery rate is c 60 Mmbo.

Even though Heron is light sweet oil that flows to surface naturally. So recovery rate could potentially be lot higher than just 30% in my view

NPV for just 15mmbo is $80m
So for 60mmbo would be $320m

Which would be approx. 27.5p / share.

Upside is lot highet from wider Heron structure and then Gazelle.

Jumped from $14,000 few days ago.

Keep an eye on Rhodium.

Munni Munni got 76,000 oz of Rhodium also.

$125 forecast for 2022 by JP Morgan is on.

Heron NPV numbers would be even higher from already highly attractive figures.

Good to see some positive movement.

Hanc0ck looks bigger than originally thought.

Combined from Heron and Gazelle.

Heron - circa 200 MMbo
NPV10 for just 15Mmbo is US$80 Million

Block V - NPV10 estimates:
for 50Mmbo is US$ 451 Million
for 150Mmbo is US$ 1.27 Billion

These NPV estimates are from 4 years ago.
current Brent crude price $81 / bbl

If you waiting for boots on the ground price could be 10p by then.

Price will rise ahead of news. Historically bigger price moves at MATD come between Jan - Mar.

Yes. 7 Dec RNS makes it clear. People can read despite derampers throwing in negative spin on things. Some looking for lower entry price obviously.

Next RNS on rig confirmation could come anytime and these derampers wont be getting any stock under 4p as it would open lot higher.

Better to secure stock while price is low.
Each to their own.

Over 10m yesterday

Over 17.2m traded so far.

$125 for 2022
$150 for 2023

Bodes extremely well for Heron production to come online in 2022 and then to be ramped up by connecting Heron 2,3,4 etc.

Peak production: 9000 bopd

Before tapping into Gazelle discovery.

Back to 3.55

We saw same trend on both previous price runs to 38p and 14-15p run. Off course there are buyers n sellers but market is much bigger than just one holder.