Member Info for Mirasol

The killer, which the rampsquad never address, is that production is running at less than 40% of the P90 forecast.

That's right . They were supposed to have a 90% chance of producing 9.5 mmscfd right now - and they aren't - in fact I think they only exceeded the P90 for one month. This is supposed to be a highly conservative forecast compared to the normal mid-case P50 number.

No wonder they are in default and casting around for a white knight.

"mirasol: When FID comes Ill probably have 170,000 shares left. I don't want to be greedy. But who will buy 75% of my shares. And why would they $££$?. Infamy Infamy, they've all got it in for me( Carry On Clio.) My £25,000 investment, ATM selling target of £400,000. Ill just have to pray for forgiveness. Sell 75% you say. Nah."

Your choice - but I know someone who was busy, and seriously, organising a move to a low -tax country on the basis of a rise in his Aim portfolio - and then it all went pear shaped and he's still in his semi detached in N London.

" I suppose even without a deal its price has to be higher."

How? They still can't pay the bills they have already incurred. The company is in default and probably is not a going concern without refinancing. PI's will be wiped out in any RTO.

Just so you don't think I've taken leave of my senses I should have written

In the next few days I look forward to hearing just what amazing deal is planned.

There's a BIG difference

I think RKH are a reasonable investment, especially for a small oiler, but it worries me when I see people talking about fast cars, faster women and retirement based on AIM stocks. Over the years a quite a few stocks have shot up in price and made people , on paper, millionaires. Remember Infrastrata - floated out of Egdon and 100p a share based on their gas storage plans at Portland. I know a few people who thought they were rich at last.

18 months later 10 p a share.

Take most of it out when you can - don't get greedy.................................. you can always leave say 25% in

"The above numbers assume the inevitable consolidation doesn't happen before there are ca 40 billion shares in issue."

They'll be the first share on AIM to have to use scientific notation for the numbers of shares in circulation - sorry - in circulation is they are ever re-listed.

The ramp squad are back - someone has woken up in ANGS Towers - or come back from holiday.

I look forward to hearing just what amazing deal is planned in the next few days.

"The daily average for the 14 days posted is 0.1334"

yes and on the 22nd Aug. it was 0.1160 - you've been told off before for selecting time periods that suit your masters Ocelot. That's why I always give the 30 day number - they have low days due to minor maintenance , finger trouble etc . They count just as much as the high days.

The tax situation has been known about for years. The statement is a CMA one to cover the Nomads if something blows up but it's clearly a negotiating position, hoping to get a last minute concession. It won't work.

A number of people have posted on here the numbers going forward including the tax payment and it's not critical in the short term and is lost in the noise in the long term cash flow

Note that percentage is water compared to condensate production

actual bwpd is circa 30 currently - this is significantly better than the 50 bwpd in spring 2024

Looking at the June monthly figures an interesting feature is that water production seems to have reduced as a percentage of production. Late 2024 it had reached nearly 80% - it has dropped (even pre the compressor) to circa 72% and seems relatively stable around that number.

17-Aug-25 0.1380 mcm per day

18-Aug-25 0.1381

19-Aug-25 0.1398

20-Aug-25 0.1114

21-Aug-25 0.1371

22-Aug-25 0.1160

23-Aug-25 0.1358

24-Aug-25 0.1330

25-Aug-25 0.1232

26-Aug-25 0.1325

27-Aug-25 0.1419

28-Aug-25 0.1396

29-Aug-25 0.1420

30-Aug-25 0.1386

30 day running average 0.1288 mcm per day

It's clear that a combination of the new compressor and whatever they did in late July has had a beneficial effect on production. Rates are clearly restored to Jan/Feb 2025. Without any costs it's impossible to say if this was worthwhile but looks like they've gained 6 months breathing space.

I'd expect a steady flow of news on contracts - rigs, helicopters, supply vessels, shuttle tankers. Plus, of course, a load of journo's looking for a free holiday will be flying to the FI to write articles about... anything really.......

This should lead to more interest from the average PI. Some institutions will be able to invest once all the permissions are in place and the reserves categories change. RKH will always be a bit of punt for them as it's so long before the cash flows through to investors but the possibility of a future takeover might drive some interest.

"I hope we have some nice Christmas present news of some kind on top of FID !"

Such as?

That fence at Broadford Bridge looked like serious stuff......................

"Lol, even the usual crew have given up on this never ending saga."

Don't worry , the PR hacks will be drifting back to work next week and will be dispensing their 10p vouchers to the likes of TH2 and expecting some ramping to appear.

Even Ocelot might finally get a decent steer from her Lords & Masters

Servatec Holdings (not Servatec the IT company) is the Palmer family. I suspect the main issue is the question of can they cover the abandonment liability on the fields UKOG are selling them and what their plans are for the fields..

"The valuation of rockhopper if basin is fully developed and we retain a good size stake is anyone’s guess but its many many multiples of today’s valuation and would create many multi millionaires from this BB. "

True but it may be many years before the basin is fully opened up. I can't see Navitas doing much more than Sea Lion for the next 5-7 years with production from other fields maybe building after 2035. Even if another large outfit comes in for say JHI you're looking at 2-4 years to explore and appraise and 6-10 for production

They clearly need to live within their means - a very large cut in salaries all round would help

There is no magic authority that issues a press release saying "SLreserves have changed category".

It's much better than that.

The rules are v clear and every explorationist, reservoir engineer and oil field finance person has a copy and knows the definitions. When FID and FIG approval are announced that,s it.

Everyone knows the new Reserve status. Banks etc will immediately change their valuation of the assets using their own guidelines.

No-one has to do anything. It's a clever system as its based on VERY clear, publically available trigger points, accepted world wide