Member Info for Mirasol

Of course the 30 day average trails the latest numbers right now. It still includes some v low days. But it works the other way as well and will stay high when they shut in for maintrnance.

30 day averages are commonly used by PE''s to smooth out single day lows and highs that are untypical of long term performance.

The CPR gives an annual number but thats over 60% higher than your 3 day number or my 30 day number. It's not collapsing as fast as it did earlier this yearbut its stll wayyyyyyy under the latest forecast they've published.

We all know its impossible to short small oilers.

Divi's ridiculous history of posts about his/her "trading" are really comic when you put them all one page. The inability to keep track suggests its Adrian "fool-on-the-Hill"

Clear differential between 2 groups of PI's here

the old hands have sat on this for 15 years and are happy - they don't worry about it going up and down by 10p

the newbees want a quick gain so they can trade out fast - they want news every day if possible

03-Sep-25 0.1241 mcm per day

04-Sep-25 0.1446

05-Sep-25 0.1332

06-Sep-25 0.1301

07-Sep-25 0.1344

08-Sep-25 0.1424

09-Sep-25 0.1411

10-Sep-25 0.1424

11-Sep-25 0.1419

12-Sep-25 0.1369

13-Sep-25 0.1411

30 day running average now 0.1343 mcm per day

Relatively steady production now back at Feb 2025 levels.

Whats needed is a rig that's been working recently - or even better right up to the day it departs for theSea Lion.

Stacked rigs and crews always take some time to get up to speed

Probably looking at PL001 right next door to Sea Lion rather than Isobel for a tieback

Still have to drill it tho'......................

And it doesn't matter a damn - the Govt can send a gunboat or an aircraft full of troops whenever and where-ever they like.

Or just threaten to stop some of the more creative tax fiddling that goes on in the BVI and Channel Islands

Ocelot - "You post the daily production figures, I take your figures and calculate the average over a shorter period than 30 days, if that average is obviously higher than your 30-day average."

So you only do it if it supports your argument - never when it's lower????

Onetomany Posts: 651 Price: 0.245 No Opinion

RE: Next step 12/07/25 Today 08:55

Oh dear, really no clue what is going on. Suspect you will see an update next week on loan and placing. This coiled tubing will provide a significant boost to production from this quarter and the new well will be drilled a few months later.

All this talk about going bust is completely ridiculous. They are in the process of completing a massive acquisition ffs.

Stevo is right about the need to RNS but wrong about the ability to sue a Govt

"Any backtracking by FIG now will result in a claim for the $!.3b spent on exploration and appraisal to date which would bankrupt the Falklands Gov." -

you can't sue Governments for this sort of thing. RKH had limited grounds for suing the Italians and look where that's got them so far. In the UK you can't sue the Govt for not approving a field and you have zero hope of getting back costs. The courts would be full of people suing Miliband if it were possible - or go over and look at ANGS, UKOG etc onshore UK - completely stuffed by Govt decisions after years of investing in good faith.

And about 15 years ago the French, for example, just cancelled every exploration permit overnight and there was no compensation. Several outfits went bust.

That's extremely unlikely to happen here but if it did there'd be no payment.

So when will angus update the production guidance?

Proper oil companies do it at least semi- annually

"Do you think they’ll announce bank funding before FID ? Is that the normal course of business?"

Normally ?? No - but it seems pretty clear that FIG want a copper bottomed guarantee to cover investment and abandonment. Probably Navitas also want to ensure they're not suddenly blindsided by any RKH financing failure. By arranging all the ducks correctly the chances of an appalling embarrassment and horrible delay are avoided.

But Ocelot , you do your own production averages and post them on here regularly - you're clearly a lady of many talents.

But a simple question - do you think any report that says there is a 90% chance of achieving something and then reality turns out to be 35% of the forecast is reliable? You don't need a degree in Petroleum Engineering to answer that surely??

Ocelot

To save you the bother the e numbers that I've been talking about are contained in Table 8-2 on page 59 of the 2023 CPR.

Your thoughts on why we're NOT producing 8.8 mmscfd average this year would be welcomed, as would your estimate of how much credence we can pay to any of the forecast production numbers in the table.

She's been there for several years

When you guess someone is desperate to keep the price at 5p the temptation toexit before wejoin ppp, ukog and angs is v strong...

Handing over operatorship would be a total disaster and put usback 3 years.

A new operator would not take navitas's plans or calculations but would start from scratch. " not invented here", " can we trust their numbers" " what if they've got in wrong" et etc etc

Think Premier, think Harbour...

PS how' s your search of the CPR coming along ocelot.......

But they don't know what they might do.........

The south basin will not be drilled in years. It' s far too challenging. Easier places elswhere.

Navitas may find a slot in SL development for a single isobel well in tn between SL dev phases but that's abiut it