Member Info for miker444

Reabold will probably walk away imo, they are fully funded for all work until 2021 so will not have to do a knee jerk reaction, at worst their pride may have taken a knock.
Moving forward EWT to prove up volumes at West Newton incl Cadeby and work on monetisation if it is as big as initial drills suggested. There are a few options on monetisation and whilst people may not be in favour I wouldn't rule out an IPO.
atb.

Thanks Washers I actually thought the Friday RNS Q&A was it, oops! As you say lets see if we can get a bit more meat on the bone, certainly makes sense any hold up to LOI may have been a pre-requisite for the $45m Bank Guarantor facility, it may not but these are things we should be aware of even if we have no control over them.
atb.

It's easy to find positives as it is negatives for any company but Rathlin are the operators of WN and their staff basically downed tools for the whole of the covid -19 lockdown, this followed another delay due to new requirement for permits on discovering the oil column when the initial permits were issued for gas only.
It is frustrating having the time delays but the situations above can easily add months.

So as long as the core is oil saturated as stated in rns then I don't care if it is moonrock
:¬)

The RNS dated June 17th 2019 does state the following: " Deeper exploration target in the Cadeby formation encountered hydrocarbon shows with an oil saturated core".
GP I bow to your geological knowledge, genuinely, but irrespective of it being / not being a reef it clearly states an oil saturated core, I like the term saturated and does give some physical proof already of oil present. Clearly time will tell.
atb.

Rob I invest in RBD using HL ( Hargeaves Lansdown ), it's a silly situation as RBD are now and have been producing oil in California for some time and the criteria used by some nominees to determine RBD as a PRIIP is old hat and should be discarded.
atb.

Kinder Egg

Kindergarten / Kinder Garten

If WN does hold those figures of oil and gas volume wise then £200m is very conservative, if the Deep Cadeby comes off as well the total NPV will be $1bn+, a special 'one off' dividend could easily be 3p - 5p and still leave S&S a bucket load of cash to reinvest.
atb.

Last sentence of penultimate paragraph states 'the combined group....would ultimately lead to increased liquidity ( cash ) for the shareholders'
S&S really want to give a return to exiting shareholders, especially the II's who stumped up the £24m, could mean a special dividend or one off payment once WN is monetised?
atb.

The first section highlighted in 'bold' suggests to me that we could be looking at an eventual hostile takeover, it points out that they will continue to talk to the shareholders (and I think they are referring to the II's not PI's ) and take their response on board.

I think that is the point, we will be providing the coal on behalf of an existing new Power Plant one which is not 'owned' by us. At least its a talking point and we may find out Monday.

"Orcp will be exporting Thar Coal to a Rail Line and on to a new 660 MW Power Plant" this on twitter and suggested as to what the near term quick profit turnaround other projects could be.
Not sure of its content reliability the poster seems confident but better to discuss such things than to tear up on each other on this board surely.
atb.

I see West Newton having at least 300m barrels of oil in place ( could be more) and 300bcf of gas. If this is the case I do see S&S tempted to go for an IPO, I hope so.
IPO are expensive, $1.5m - $1.9m but RBD have the cash for that, they are time consuming approx. 4 - 6 mths but in the bigger picture it is worth the due diligence.
What that would do with the buzz of the largest onshore discovery in 50 years would be to get Banks / Venture Capital Trusts / Angel Investors stumping up an undisclosed valuation with the sp not known until the ring of the FTSE trading bell on the opening session of its stock market entry.
The winners will be the Funders who will flip ( predetermined price ) and shareholders already invested via the company (RBD/ DELT ). The money will the coffers enabling a good proportion to be paid out as a special dividend / one off payment and has been known to make ordinary PI's into overnight millionaires, extremely rare but the odd occasion a billionaire, that won't be me unfortunately.
The 'losers' if there are any will be the retail investors / PI's who buy at the bell to see it probably rise exponentially ( initially ) and get caught out from the flippers / profit takers, although it will be RBD /DELT CEO's duty to look after all shareholders and get the best long term.
As cold as it sounds it won't be our problem, a decent pay day without selling a single share. I really do see West Newton as given a price tag of $1bn - $2bn, comfortably. RBD have 56% and I see us getting $500m and Steve & Sachin using half that for a special dividend which will be circa 3p up to 5p, I really do.
Rose tinted specs possibly but they got a £24m raise at a drop of the hat no questions asked during a recession and oil sector which was / is in trouble in general so proving to me the super returns potential IF WN is proven up.
If not an IPO then monetisation through a bidding war will be equally welcomed.
atb.

Guys I am invested in RBD and have been for a while and I suspect you may not appreciate me coming on to your board but I am as genuine an investor as you will get, I recognise O2B@C as a trusted poster and he may well have seen my moniker on RBD.
All I will suggest is (and on initial takeover news I understand why it is causing angst amongst Deltic shareholders) just have a read of RBD projects from their website and some RNS's titled West Newton updates or Parta. These are the 2 biggest projects in RBD's portfolio.
West Newton is projected to be the largest onshore discovery for nearly 50 years and may well come in to surpass Wytch Farm, it certainly will give it a run for its money.
West Newton was drilled with the sole intention of looking for a gas column. They found it. Problem is they found a whopping 65 metre payload, 20 metres of the gas but underneath an impressive 45m oil column, practically a reservoir.
This caught them out as the permit was for gas only and they stopped in their tracks to apply for an oil permit which has totally different regs and conditions etc.
They thought the only oil would be further down in the Deep Cadeby Reef Formation and this alone was given an NPV of $850m, this being tiny to the 45m oil column up above.
The volume of oil unexpectedly found was low case 146m barrels and best case 280m barrels, a 100% leeway.
To add to this almost 300bcf of gas.
On initial drill the Deep Cadeby Reef Formation did not just give hydrocarbon shows but as stated in an RNS had an 'oil saturated core'.
My point in a very long winded way and I apologise for the length of this post is that most RBD shareholders are looking at a decent special dividend if West Newton comes up as expected, already drilled as I stated for the gas but hit all the other oil so not exploration but appraisal and an extremely high cahance of success.
West Newton will be a company game changer and if Deltic are a part of it I think you guys will do far better than you are now and you could do worse than to top up RBD shares which are embarrassingly low purely due to mm's holding back for West Newton news.
If it proves up RBD want to Monetise / Cash In and there will be a bidding war from a host of oilers on Humberside, Total, Chevron, Statoil, Petronas to name but a few and the beauty is all the infrastructure is there, pipelines, refineries , storage facilities. It's what these companies do and its sitting amongst them, literally in their back yard.
Onshore is more cost effective to produce, approx. $18 a barrel so safer than offshore when oil price is low.
I am preparing to be abused now and I can take that but at the very least if you take exception at me on your board that's fine but just have a look at RBD website and call up projects, you may feel a damn sight chipper than you probably are now.
atb

The variables in the sheer volume of West Newton, assuming it proves up, are huge. We have almost a 100% range in the unexpected oil column find that is sitting below the expected gas. The low case figure is 146m barrels and best case 280m barrels. Throw in nearly 300bcf and then the Deep Cadeby Reef Formation which is where we only thought oil would be, this was given an NPV of $850m on its own so I think S&S will not do a deal until they know what we have got, however if you mean have they got someone lined up in lieu of the outcome and volumes ready to negotiate then quite possibly.
atb

Absolutely not if I was a Deltic shareholder but to reiterate S&S have already spoken to the largest Deltic shareholders who must have given their blessing to proceed this far (I would have thought).

Just to add Steve & Sachin, as we all know, are ex Fund Managers with over 30 years city experience of O & G between them and I cannot believe that as basically money men they will not have looked at this extremely carefully with a wealth of Due Dilligence to boot, imo.

I have a gut feeling that we may see a hostile bid for takeover, as you say its not the Deltic BOD who own the company they can only advise and reject on principal, but if S&S are in / have already talked the larger shareholders (II's) then the volume of votes will be far greater than the disgruntled PI's if and when it is tabled to vote on.

Hargreave Hale Ltd

If WN monetisation generates a few hundred million then there will be a special dividend, this has already been voted on along with share buy backs etc.