Member Info for miker444

BH there can't be many small Oil & Gas companies who can bankroll £1m so it shows how strong our cash position is. I do get the impression that S&S have further 'plans' regarding Corallian in the future ¬).

Hi BH, I think Malcy does tend to play safe and quote fairly obvious facts but I whole heartedly agree on this one. We have stated the pluses for RBD too many times to mention, good porosity, good hydrocarbon columns, excellent infrastructure at Humber incl storage, refineries, pipeline networks etc.
I think it is just a question of how big will it eventually be, we had estimates of between 146m - 283m barrels (oil) just for the 62 metre column, what could the figures be for a hydrocarbon column 118 metres ( 'at least' 118 metres).
When a possible 200 bcf - 300 bcf of gas is not even the talk of the project I think that then goes to show we are sitting on a giant and some very good sp uplifts to come, volumes first with CPR and then the big one when news drops of talks are in hand with a buyer.
Finally after a long slog some good months coming up.
atb.

NVG, I think that is an option but also to sell WN-A & WN-B return 50% to shareholders and use the rest to fund and get WN-C & WN-D to full FDP and sell / produce those.

There are plenty of CEO's who 'end up feathering their own nest' even if not their initial intention and usually due to their Company failing to achieve what they set out to accomplish.
I do not put S&S in that category.
They left the City with CV's second to none and with many years experience with Tier1 Investment Companies. They will want to prove themselves in their own right to the City they left behind. The biggest driving force will be to their investors which include Mr & Mrs Sachin who hold several hundred million shares @ £1.4m or thereabouts. To have skin in the game is one thing but to promote it also to family and in particular parents says enough for me about integrity and intention to return to shareholders.
atb.

There does indeed seem to be a buying pattern going on and at Full ask. Spread only 3% so nice and tight as well.

Hi deemule no offence taken mate, absolutely none, I am happy to stand corrected, must have been on holiday at the time :¬)
atb.

Hi Deemule I followed it daily and there was nothing that made it move that high in those days that I remember, it reached an intraday 1.71 Aug 30 2019. However not important I the bigger picture and smokie accepted it happily, wasn't calling him out :¬)

Totally relevant in that Manwell stated "Gives you an idea of what proven assets in production are going for". Nothing else was stated.

Manwell excellent find and price of oil quoted in that is practically identical to where we are today. Am I reading correct that the equity will be $325m for just 23m barrels net ( 18m + 5m ) ?
If so then we will smash the (multi) $bn price tag that BMD and others quote with confidence. Either way could see several multiples of the 3p being discussed :¬)
atb.

I also bought in 3 years ago but at 0.585p, not correcting you but I think you have your timing wrong, the sp never reached 1.2p until summer 2019, a little over 18mths, although time does fly.
Nice to see you think it will breach 3p and then some, totally agree with you on that.
atb.

Exploration, good find, it does look as though it could be aerally extensive as S&S stated seeing as Boulby is a few miles to the north of West Newton and the proposed WN-C & WN-D wells are to the south. With Ellerby to the west perhaps we have stumbled across something really significant indeed.
atb.

With the sheer volume of (expected) oil at WN it is easy to overlook or even push the value of the gas to one side or discount it altogether as a nice little bonus. But it was not that long ago that gas is all we thought we had but at 189 bcf it was quite a cause for celebration if proven up.
We were given potential upgrade figures of 266 bcf when the 65m hydrocarbon column was drilled at WN-A.
This should upgrade substantially again with the B1Z drill highlighting a column almost double WN-A coming in at least 118m ( at least ).

So i have looked at any indicators for a net valuation the gas could give Reabold and there is a very handy indicator in the Corallian Victory project presented on RBD's website. It states the NPV of 49 bcf to be between £85m - £146m depending on the price of the therm. Therefore RBD's 25 bcf (50%) net NPV is given at £31m - £54m.

My point is this is the valuation for just 25bcf ! If we have 56% of 266 bcf - 300 bcf then the NPV gets pretty serious at between £186m - £324m for the 266 bcf only to rise even higher with greater volumes. As I stated above not long ago we were excited as to what the sp could go to with the gas, now its the oil taking the headlines but gas is not the poor relation by any means and could put 4p on the sp off its own back.
atb.

BH Good find, I saw an article yesterday where they expected, what with Covid economic recovery, oil to be circa $100 by the end of the year. We know that the USA are drawing down and decreasing oil stocks at a faster rate than anticipated.
This is why I am happy for S&S to do as they stated in the Q&A forum and not monetise too early before the real value of WN is realised, I think part of that reasoning is due to their expectations that with POO increasing steadily they will be able to command a fair but stronger price for recoverable oil in the ground.
Not unrealistic to expect $10 a barrel from low cost onshore oil if in the region of $65 - $75+.
atb.

Good Article in the Wall Street Journal (posted on i3e board) stating second half of the year will see big reductions in oil stock piles particularly in the USA, already started happening.
The POO in RBD's original strategy was deemed not too critical as they invested in Companies and not necessarily production but that changes with monetisation.
It does look as though with economies starting to get back to pre Covid activity that oil is due a re-rate as early as summer / H2.
I am one of a few that also believes that S&S have already talked to an oil Major/s and the rise in POO could not come at a better time, will easily see $70+ and stabilised which will command a good price of oil in the ground, recoverable that is.
It will flow, it will be massive, the volumes will be huge and any major wanting to buy will be buying the price tag of the label of 'the largest onshore discovery in 50 years' S&S will not be giving it away, it will be multi -$billion.
Sachin mentioned sites 'C&D' in the Q&A they will extract every penny they can for the benefit of the share price and this will be passed on to shareholders, for those that can sit on their hands for a few more months and the process will be kicked off by EWT /Flow Tests culminating in a CPR straight after.
atb.

It was good to hear at the end of the forum that they do not want to monetise too early so as not get the full picture of the true value of West Newton, they also said they could part monetise ( I am assuming the gas ) to provide funds for optionality.
The categorical No Comment as to whether they have spoken to a Foreign Major already was then proceeded by 'we are always in constant talks with a lot of people to bring to their attention the full scale of what we might have at WN' or words to that effect was a message to read between the lines :¬)
I think once EWT and flow tests have been completed we will hear who may be in talks. A few months away but we have come this far so its sit on hands time for me.
atb.

I think it will be down to costs and I believe the total gas is 20bcf, decent but not a game changer and will it be economically viable for the payback. Even early days S&S stated many times they saw Parta as equal to WN, I never did see that myself and still don't even with all the 'running room' of additional wells. For me and the majority of others it is coming back to WN being the cake, the icing, and the cherry on top :¬)

Oil at a 1 Year high, bodes well for monetisation as and when it happens. Hopefully Q&A may get an inkling of what S&S see as their preferred 'vehicle' for this.
atb.

It does suggest that they are confident that WN is as de-risked as it can be and can now answer questions with detail and reading between the lines I get the impression they almost want to advertise (as in Maicy's blog) that despite having to do EWT's to satisfy the market that, as much as it can be, it is a foregone conclusion it will flow from incredible volumes.
Sure they have to answer Parta and California state of play but I agree with a certain person it really is all about WN coming in as now expected.

BH, Brent now $57 and consensus of opinion circa $65 come summer, just a few mths away. S&S did state the strategy of the RBD model is protected against oil price fluctuations but that is directed at the investment side of things and not monetisation. So the higher the POO obviously then the greater the profit margin for prospective Oil Companies that are interested in buying.
Onshore costs very low and very attractive compared to offshore, we could command $8 - $10 a barrel in the ground especially if it flows as expected due to the high porosities ( incl natural fracturing and secondary Vuggy ) and good quality API 'dry oil' with no water present.
atb.

Wasit exactly right, its not just Victory but we have a 34.9% interest in Corallian as a Company as a whole so whatever they get their fingers in to we can reap the benefits if we so choose.
atb.