Member Info for miker444

Persi it was a simple calculation of 15m barrels x $60 therefore making $900m. That's it. I am not bothered by anyone on how they take me seriously or not because I am merely stating the bleeding obvious as to how markets will react to news or sentiment. We reached 1.71p on 30th August 2019 on nothing more than speculation.
I just have an inkling that with the largest onshore discovery in 50 years we will blow 1.71p out of the water ( contradiction apart ).
As for the BBC I concur they are a left wing self serving UK hating establishment and not even a distant shadow on what they use to be.
atb.

RNST ….Whatever, not interested what you call it but 15m barrels was valued at $900m by the BBC so the point I was making is still correct.

Yes not only a good post but 23 recommendations so a lot more invested / following than are actually posting. You have to ask yourself how will the market respond with ( if proven up ) the largest onshore oil & gas discovery in 50 years. It will be given a billion dollar valuation, certainly by the media who will quote its retail worth as they did Colter.
I know Colter was a non starter but my point is the BBC South news announced on national tv that Colter's 15m barrels was worth $900m. They calculated 15m x POO at the time of $60 hence the $900m price tag.
Before I am shot down, don't actually give a monkeys if I am but there you go, this is the retail price and we won't get that but the media won't calculate that they will give a one off figure and if they valued 15m barrels @$900m then what the hell will they give several hundred million barrels and 200 - 300 bcf.
It's all about the impact this will have in the media and the effect on the MarCap it will give RBD.
Hmmm.... could we see sp of 2.5p
PMSL :¬))

The Market want figures / volumes / flow rates. Once that happens we may well have interested party's news released round about the same time. BMD may be a bit of a marmite figure but I tend to agree with him that talks (in expectation of successful outcome at WN) will have already taken place.
atb.

feelinlucky, a buyout may well be on the cards but due to the sheer volume of oil companies operating out of Humber the obvious way to monetisation will be via one ( possibly 2 ) of them.

We have Total, Petronas, Ineos, Chevron, Conoco Philips to name just a few, all will want to play a part in the 'new Wytch Farm' if it proves up as expected.

As I have stated repeatedly, along with others, one thing is for sure, success will be a multi £bn play for West Newton.

RBD have 56%. :¬)

atb.

Chimey, hardly a ramp mate in fact you have underestimate your calcs, 38m barrels @ just $8 ( not $11 ) will give you your figures.
I agree it will likely be much much higher on what we know. Original estimates of the 65 metre hydrocarbon column were low case 146m barrels and best case 280m barrels.
Latest rns states at least 118 metre column as opposed to 65 metres and seismic data suggesting reservoir continuity for 2.5km.
This to me suggests we could be looking at the high end just for starters and 300m barrels with porosity at 14% giving 30% recoverable. This is without the 200 - 300 bcf of gas. Add in the Humber infrastructure, pipeline network, storage facilities, and refineries then I expect an sp pushing double figures upon monetisation.

atb.

Persi I agree, Monty86 it could be No or Yes or Yes and No but not necessarily in that order or perhaps it is.

3 - 5 bag on volumes, another bag with successful EWT / Flow rates and once talks with a major on monetisation then its anyone's guess. This will be a multi-billion dollar play if proven up and being in the heart of the best onshore infrastructure network in the UK.

Manwell / Rover66 / Rambo23 really appreciate the replies, happy to hold my hand up regarding lack of technical / geological knowledge vis a vis oil & gas.
atb.

Manwell many thanks, the reason for my post was that a poster a week or so ago stated that once the casing was run then it could allow rough calculations of hydrocarbon volumes in place?

JackD many thanks for the reply, I too think the volumes will push Wytch Farm all the way, dry oil, 14%+porosity and 'at least' 118m column so could be even deeper, with WN-C & WN-D to follow.
I will ignore the noise of those trying to get in cheaper but seriously if 0.63p is not a ridiculous entry point I don't know what people want to get in at considering how de-risked we now are. I agree with BMD that talks are probably already underway with bigger bods.
Anyone knowledgeable enough to calculate a rough timeframe for how long it will take for the casing to be run / completed?
atb.

Ribeye very commendable, I do think that covid -19 vaccines will have a bigger impact on oil prices than any other influence, apart from World War 3 of course, not very prophetic I know and fairly obvious but my point is we could see oil prices towards ( and stabilising ) at $55 - $60.
Just wonder how long it takes to run the casing......
atb.

BH I know that oil in the ground is valued at $11 when POO is $55 a barrel and with the costs being related to onshore and infrastructure coming out of our ears in the Humber region I think we can command $10 unless oil price slumps, no sign of that if the vaccines get rolled out on national scales. The NPV for Cadeby 79m barrels was set at $850m hence the $11 yardstick, all on the RBD presentation pages.
atb.

Manwell thanks for the reply, I do wonder about how this will be monetised and I keep coming back to, assuming it will be big enough :`), to an IPO. I think it will be big enough to get the backing of the necessary Fund Managers / Banks to raise and underpin the stock market release valuation. IPO's take 3 - 6 mths on average and cost approx $1.5m but the returns can make millionnaires overnight ( existing shareholders that is ) and despite what other posters are saying in that event I would strongly expect a one off special dividend, so would Mr & Mrs Oza :¬)

Guys is the reference to 'lake' of oil banter between posters or has this been mentioned in any unofficial capacity?, appreciate it is not a technical term and cannot be held to account and I expect huge volumes to be announced soon, just wondered if this term has been used by persons other than us mere mortals ( bb posters ).
atb.

or Wytch Farm ( Whych)

Sachin Oza stated "Oil & gas was encountered on every penetration made" so the volume will be humungous and with 14% porosity that's extremely favourable to be able to get it out. I think the incentive to succeed in having (probably) the largest oil discovery in Western Europe for 50 years is there imo :¬)

JS490 Exactly, it was voiced that WN-C & WN-D could be carbon ( no pun intended ) copies of WN-A & B and mirror image what we already have, and people still talking if sp can do 2p! :¬)
Imagine proving up 200m - 400m barrels and the merest whiff of talks with Chevron, Total, Petronas, Ineos, Conoco Philips which are all based at the Humber infrastructure and sp will be knocking at the door of double figures.
atb.

Thanks Rubey for posting the link. Some questioned as to why RBD mentioned (and UJO didn't ) the 118m Hydrocarbon column. For me the figure is too exact not to have been put forward by Rathlin during their findings prior to their update page, which contains very little detail, quite the norm for Rathlin from past experience.

So why RBD and not DB/UJO, quite simply some here have either forgotten or may be just unaware that Stephen Williams is on the Board of Rathlin i.e he is a Director (Rathlin) and will be privy to detail in meetings or by request.
Actually the rns uses the word 'at least' 118m so could be even more :¬).

All in the rns which is checked over by legal eagles and the Nomad/s so not something that can just be thrown in on a whim.

Going to be a good few months early on in the New Year and with WN-C & WN-D to come.
atb.

Just watched the brr media interview again and it really does get better and better every time you view it. Statements such as " Oil & Gas was found with every penetration made" & "Seismic data allowing to locate the position of the Kirkham Abbey suggesting continuity over the aereally extensive 2.5km" etc.
When posters put your mind doubt just go back to the basics of what made you invest in the first place because for me that and sometimes just the length of time waiting for news can blur the reasons.
The volumes here are going to be off the scale and it is now tremendously de-risked and with 14% porosity the recoverability will be at the high end of industry expectations. Infrastructure, refinery & storage facilities literally in West Newtons back garden so I will ignore the noise and keep adding when funds become available, on my way to holding nearly 30m shares now and a lot happier after reading the rns and seeing the dynamic duo trying to keep a lid on their excitement.
Act on your own due diligence & DYOR.
atb.