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I'm sensing a lot of wedding night nerves on here :-)

At 46:39 LD says "the SCIB1 data is stunning". She wouldn't have said this if the data she has seen over the last few months isn't very very good. Relax.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkI4TuD5UEA

CrustyPete - Scancell hare re-iterated many times that it is all about 27 responders. Given that they have stated Q4 for the results it is clear that they intend to report as soon as 27 is hit and nothing was said at the AGM that would lead me to think otherwise.

EE it is impossible for Scancell to have a complete set by end Dec as recruitment hasn't finished so the first scans for recent and forthcoming recruits won't be till next year. Scancell would not have said results in Q4 if they were going to report on the full set. They will report when they have hit 27 responders.

Hi emptyend, I believe the reference to Jan was in the response to the question about 'how can we have results in 4Q when we haven't finished recruitment yet'. My reading of LD's answer is that results are expected in 4Q but it is possible that they may drift into next year should the results of forthcoming scans be out of line with Scancell's expectations (based on previous trends) - hence IMO a low likelihood of Jan.

Ray - in the answer to one of the Q&A questions LD indicated that if the tumour has shrunk by 30% or more at the first scan them they are a responder. The tumour may shrink more by the time of the 2nd scan but they are already classed as a responder after the 12 week scan. I would guess therefore that they won't rely on 2nd scans.

I suppose it might just be possible to use 2nd scans and still have results in 4Q but this would mean that virtually all patients recruited by end June i.e. those that will have had a 2nd scan by Christmas (which I guess would be about 29 patients) would need to be responders - giving an ORR well above 90%.

My take on likely ORR and results date.

What we know:-

On 24/7 with 32/43 patients recruited Scancell stated Q4 for SCIB1 results

On 24/9 with 36/43 patients recruited they stated Q4 for SCIB1 results

On 25/10 with 41/43 patients recruited they still stated Q4 for SCIB1 results

This re-iteration of Q4 right up to the AGM tells me that they have confidence that Q4 will be met. It's not impossible that it won't be, but that clearly would require the scans that are done over the next few weeks to be completely off trend vs what they have obviously seen so far.

What else can we glean from this ? Well the earliest point a responder can we detected is the 12 week scan, and so only the 36 patients recruited by 24/9 will have had their at least their 12 week scan by Christmas. This must indicate that Scancell have a confident expectation, based on what they have been seeing right up to the date of the AGM where they restated Q4 for results, that they will hit 27 responders from this 36. So this implies a 'worst case' of 75% ORR (27/36), but I'd expect slightly better than that for Scancell to be positioning the results as 4Q (relying on 27 out of 36 would be cutting it too fine) which would mean that they expect to hit the 27 with less than 36 scanned patients i.e. maybe 27/33 (ORR 81.8%) or 27/34 (ORR 79.4%).

Based on the above I'd be expecting the results in late Nov / early Dec with ORR of 82%.

Just my opinion.

Updated version of the AGM video with the missing first 6 minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkI4TuD5UEA

Hi Burble - I've noticed that I accidentally started the YouTube video from 7 mins into the presentation - I'll do an update. In those first few mins LD says that they are "hoping to publish SCIB1 data before the end of the year" and the iSCIB1 data next year. There was no mention of Dec/Jan for the SCIB1 data but I do accept that it is possible that it may run beyond the end of this year if forthcoming scans do not follow the trend that Scancell must have been seeing for them to believe that the SCIB1 data will be in 4Q.

Thanks Burble - I'll listen again.

Hi Burble

where did you get 'SCIB1 read out - December/early Jan' from - all I hear in the recording was Q4 ?

Thanks Burble - I agree with your thoughts about why they are developing further immunobodies (more £££ if platform eventually sold) but it could also be a to generate relatively lucrative pre-clinical deals for other SCIB's (3/4/5) once SCIB1 proves the technology to the market.

Ref Avidimab - it was interesting what LD said, although she did say that have had some thoughts on how they may get traction but didn't elaborate. Patenet extension may be the route to go if they can get somebody interested.

Given they have repeated 4Q even in late October this says to me that they as pretty certain, based on the scans so far, that it will only take another few scans to get to the 27 responders.

I know that somebody asked a question about how they can be certain that they will be able to announce results in 4Q given that recruitment hasn't finished, and of course (as LD acknowledged) it is theoretically possible that the results may run into next year, but this would surely mean that the next wave of scans give results that are well out of line with the trend seen across those scans done so far which I believe is highly unlikely.

Ha ha, I didn't think there was Rob23460 :-)

Yes, some bits were impossible to make clearer and the accent certainly doesn't help.

If they have >30% decrease in tumour size at 12 week scan they are a responder as indicated by LD in the Q&A.

I should also have said that the original audio is that provided by Botski (thanks again), which I subsequently enhanced.

Hi all

I've created a video with enhanced audio and with the presentation slides overlaid onto the audio.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Jy1Dtq9DaM

Chester, HLA patients can be recruited onto iSCIB1 trial as soon as SCIB1 is fully recruited at 43 patients (which will probably be 2-3 weeks from now) - no need to wait till SCIB1 full results are published next year.

Hi all

I've created a video with enhanced audio and with the presentation slides overlaid onto the audio.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Jy1Dtq9DaM

Thanks Botski, your efforts are really appreciated :-)