Member Info for miavoce

Paul, 11 of 13 is 84.6 %, this is not a rounding situation.

Hi Bermudashorts - one further thought.

I am still struggling to believe that LD said 86 when she meant 85. It just isn't something a scientist would do. The number 86 must therefore have been in her mind for some reason, and this may be because the ORR at the time the podcast was recorded was indeed 86%. Perhaps therefore a freudian slip has occurred and LD said 86 without realising she it - it was maybe only when you raised the question with her that she realised her mistake. Fortunately the number 86 is sufficiently close to 85 to be able to pass it off as meaning the 11 out of 13, but as I say, I find it hard to believe that LD would make such a mistake as 85 and 86 are completely different numbers.

I'm still hopeful of results in Oct or early Nov.

Thanks for the clarification Bermuda shorts, I'll put my calculator away.

Good point DeAar. So we may get to the 27 somewhat sooner (maybe mid Oct).

In the podcast Lindy mentioned that 32 patients have been recruited so we should be at 27 responders when these are scanned as that would only require a response rate of 84.3%. Given that some of these would only have been recruited recently it may be about 13 weeks till they are all scanned so will probably be December when we get the announcement that 27 has been hit.

I'm therefore revising my view to say that we are currently at 19 out of 22, with 10 patients still to be scanned from the 32 recruited. There should be roughly one additional scan per week going forward. If th next 8 scans are all responder we may hit the 27 in early / mid November which would be nice.

Lindy doesn't say 86% when she means 85%. So, I think we can take it that the current response rate is 86%.

Ok, so assuming that we done yet have 27 responders (as this would represent the endpoint having been met and would surely warrant an announcement, what are combinations of number of patients scanned vs number of responders that would produce a response rate between 85.5% and 86.49% (and thus would round to 86% ?

There are 5 such combinations:-

12 out of 14 = 85.7%

18 out of 21 = 85.7%

19 out of 22 = 86.4%

24 out of 28 = 85.7%

25 out of 29 = 86.2%

We can ignore the 12 out of 14 as we will be well beyond 14 patients scanned. We can probably also ignore the next two as we should already be beyond those numbers of scanned patients. That leaves us with 24 out of 28 or 25 out of 29. In either of these cases we we are probably only a handful of scans away from hitting 27. Hopefully we will be there by end September.

October will be interesting.

31 responders out of 36 scanned would be 86%.

Pete, that sell has already been 'soaked up' - the sell was bought by somebody...

Hi recce,

given where SC134 appears to be in its development, how long do you think it will take to get it ready for a phase 1 (assuming money not a problem) ?

I wonder if the buyer is back now that the price has bottomed. The upwards movement on fairly small volume may indicate that there may be a chunky buy order in the background ?

Violindog - IMO if the results are good enough to get the SP to 50p then they will surely be good enough to get it to £1 and beyond (you may have to be quick to sell at 50p as the price would likely surpass that level very quickly).

Assuming the SP has already hit £1 based on the data and the expectation of pharma bid my initial bid would be £2bn with flexibility to go up to £2.5bn (£2.50 per share). I'm pretty sure that Redmile and Vulpes would accept this unless another bidder came in - intros case the price is likely to go to £3bn+

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a bid very soon after data is released. If the data is excellent and the side effects are minimal there would be no need for a pharma to wait for approval of the registration trial as they know that it would be a formality.

...wouldn't we all emptyend !

It's not a Non Regulatory RNS, it is an Alliance News article simply rehashing yesterday's Non Regulatory RNS

'Louder whiners...' I'm having flashbacks of Panama7 at various AGMs thereafter

Nice 500k buy just after the bell. Looks like the buyer is still mopping up.

Link isn't working Cleanerworld.

By my rough calculations buys and sells are now roughly even since the start of yesterday so shouldn't take much to get us moving north again.

400K at 16.5. Buyer back ?