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We've been a lot higher the the PoO was lower, and a lower when the PoO was higher so the connection between HUR sp and PoO seems tenuous ?
My random guess is that there is a big overlap between people who invest in oilers and people who invest in crypto, and the crypto sell off is causing these folks to sell off their oilers to cover their crypto margin calls.
Today's RNS seems to have been a slow burner a folks cottoned on to the underlying implications regarding:-
- pharmajet and covidity trial showing good results (pharmajet could only be considered to be working well if the immunological response for the vaccine was good)
- SCIB1 proving beneficial (hence worth progressing the new cohort)
Hopefully the momentum will continue as more investors realise the implications of todays RNS.
2 more after the close. Maybe this are the end of the big seller ? Looking forward to the production update in the next couple of days - have we maintained production at circa 9000 bpd ???
Possibly also indicates that early efficacy data from the SCIB1 trail is positive and hence worth progressing....
Lindy looked very happy on yesterdays Proactive interview and went out of her way to reference both the SCOPE and COVIDITY trials - would she have done this if signs from those trials weren't favourable ?
Maybe Lindy communicated more yesterday than just the words she used...
Given the apparent stabilisation of production at about 9000 bpd there could be several years of good production ahead of us. The complexity of assessing the amount of oil in a fractured basement reservoir makes forecasting very difficult.
Courtesy of Andrew Smith on Telegram:-
My notes on reimbursement:-
From the 29 April 2021 presentation:
Ian Griffiths mentioned "There are existing reimbursement codes that we should be able to utilise, so this is about building the case for higher reimbursement later down the line"
From a Finncap note of 28 October 2020 re ovarian:
"ANGLE will be able to sell to clinicians directly in the first instance for private payers. ANGLE will also be able to generate additional data to facilitate discussions with payers in respect of dedicated reimbursement codes for Parsortix clinical applications. A company cannot apply for a reimbursement code in the US (CPT code) until the test is being offered. Offering the test as an LDT enables a reimbursement code to be secured ahead of subsequent FDA cleared product tests. "
"assuming a c.$1,000 test (similar to Aspira Women’s Health’s OVA-1 and OVERA tests which have weaker performance that Parsortix but CPT reimbursement prices of $897 and $950, respectively)."
From Jefferies note of 19 January 2022:
“Although it will likely take time to build commercial revenues from clinical use, reflecting the need to secure reimbursement and, ideally, inclusion in cancer treatment guidelines, FDA clearance is likely to accelerate all forms of adoption, in our view, driving utilisation in research, plus uptake in pharmaceutical drug trials and by contract research organisations (CROs) as the gold standard means for collecting CTCs for subsequent analysis”
“We assume the Parsortix PMT test is eventually priced at a premium to Aspira Women's Health FDA-approved OVA1 test, which has CMS reimbursement of $897”
“We assume a conservative ramp, reflecting the time taken to build awareness and secure reimbursement codes and coverage, with ANGLE at least initially reliant on private pay, plus the possibility of leveraging OVA1's reimbursement code, until securing its own code after perhaps 2-3 years. Initial referrals are likely to predominate from the Wilmot Cancer Institute as ANGLE builds awareness.”
From the results and webinar of 1 August 2019
the regulatory process is "very long" [now done]. After that there is the need to get reimbursement codes and arrangements with payers. Then to get in the Na
Given that the significant near term revenue is expected to cone from the Pharma services (per AN's recent presentation) I doubt the fall post FDA Approval has anything to do with reimbursement codes.
'Then there will be RNS's every so often that should slowly increase the sp over the coming years.'
Or alternatively of course it is just as likely that there will be some very significant partnership / bid approach RNS's that will cause the price to grow rapidly.
I expect the roadshow week (w/c 20/6) will be the trigger for a strong turnaround, and I have a feeling that the large fall has been, in part, engineered to let Berenberg's get in at an exceptionally good risk/reward position.
I believe that there is an existing reimbursement code that can be used for the ovarian LDT - AN has mentioned this several times in the past. The existing tests to determine if a pelvic mass might be ovarian cancer (which are reimbursed under the existing code) are, as AN frequently tells us, greatly inferior to the AGL test and so the AGL test could quickly displace them.
And while we are applying for the reimbursement code for the prostate test the Solaris group can sell the test to their patients, many of whom may well be willing to pay out of pocket for a test that can save them having to have a nasty prostate biopsy.
I think it might be 0.14% rather the 1.4%