Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
JustThinkItThrough
the standalone device can't be used make any diagnostic/prognostic claims for CTCs because its job is to get the CTC's from patient blood - analysis of those CTC's using other tools then has to take place for diagnosis / prognosis to be performed. Absolutely no reason why this can't happen.
Regarding research us, particularly in clinical trials, this could well grow into a significant business in its own right. Review previous Angle presentations to get a sense of the potential scale.
Indeed Thompi, looks like most will be missed (although to be fair I think they have hit 2 - the PD-L1 and the Portrait+). Let's see what this week brings. I am however very optimistic for 2024.
I'm expecting 2024 to be commercially transformative for Angle with revenue being multiples of that in 2023. This revenue growth will be underpinned by multiple commercial deals and the coming to market of new products and service. I expect to exit 2024 with an SP which is multiples of that with which we leave 2023.
Some may disagree with the above, which is fine, but I strongly believe the above will materialise.
Hi RuckRover
the $300m would indeed be pure profit in that Scancell will have no costs associated with that income (other than some limited admin to receive and account for the money). Whether Scancell choose to use some of this money to funds the development of other products is a separate point. The development of those products would itself accrue value to the company.
In somewhere between 12 and 18 months Scancell are likely to have enough data to convince big pharma that iSCIB1+ is sufficiently effective to make it worth licensing. So, what will big pharma have to pay and what will Scancell be worth.
The market for iSCIB1+ in non resectable melanoma will be $4.5bn (3 x the SCIB1 market size), so let's say that big pharma estimate that can achieve annual sales of $2bn. How much would they have to pay Scancell to buy that future annual revenue stream - my guess would be $1bn up front plus $500m in milestones. They would also need to give a significant royalty to Scancell given the fact that the risk of failure will be low - my guess would be 15%.
So, in 2025 Scancell might receive $1bn with the expectation of a further $500m over the following 2-3 years. This would certain push the SP towards the £1 mark irrespective of whatever else may be happening with our other products. Obviously the SP isn't going to stay at 12p until the deal is done - the progressive build up of positive data will make a deal more and more likely and the SP will rise in anticipation (not withstanding what may also be happening - e.g. trial data, deals - with our other products).
The real kicker comes in later however when the royalty stream builds. 15% of $2bn is $300m of pure profit for Scancell each year. Based on a PE ratio of just 10 this would give Scancell a valuation of $3bn or around £2 per share and there may also be a decent dividend. And this is just for iSCIB1+ ! As trials progress and deals are done for other products they will only add to the valuation.
Cleanerworld, each shareholder is entitled to purchase 1 new share for every 45 shares they currently hold. You may however indicate that you wish to purchase more shares than that in the event that more shares are available (due to some shareholders not taking up their entitlement). Whether you get all the additional shares you request will depend on how many additional shares are available, how many other shareholders want to buy additional shares and how many additional shares they want to buy.
With hindsight this placing announcement explains a couple of things:-
1. The SCOPE update RNS on Tuesday was clearly for the benefit of getting the fundraise away at the best possible price rather than to get the news out before the AGM
2. As of Tuesday IG Index would not allow any new positions to be opened in Scancell. With hindsight this must mean that IG were aware of the forthcoming fundraise at that point and, as insiders, were not allowed to profit from enabling traders to open new long positions which IG knew would lose money within 2 days.