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Wow what a bonus. I have to say my main interest was POC RTC but this is so much bigger than I was expecting with Mologic.

So we are now going to be making antigen and antibody tests, not just any antigen tests but lateral flow antigen tests.

The registrations are key to unlocking orders so once these are done they could start flying in.

It's worth noting the last viral disease to be eradicated was smallpox in 1977 and it took 3 years from the last case for the WHO to declare it eradicated. We have not bee able to defeat any virus since despite the wonderful advancements in research and technology. This is the enormity of the task at hand here, and evidence that there is no chance this is going away in just a few months.
All we are able to do is test for illnesses and treat and this is the same for many diseases out there. This one is clearly more threatening and unique than anything we have seen in our lifetime. Antibodies are our biggest defence until treatment or vaccines develop to the requisite level. Therefore antibody testing will be beyond any scale of mass testing that you can imagine over the next few years.

Unfortunately Covid is not going anywhere. It's a good seeing that the death rate is in decline. But there is a lag between infection and deaths. We are now at a stage where that lag has taken us to less deaths because of the most strict part of the lockdown coming into effect. It shouldn't come as a surprise that we were largely shut indoors for a sustained periods so the virus couldn't spread at the same level. But we are clearly nowhere near normal again. It is inevitable that localised and probably wider waves will happen. The only saving grace is i would hope more people will respect the threat of covid now than when we were first getting familiar with it, however the various movements going on around the country says that we dont have the discipline to keep this at bay.

For Omega, i can guarantee that even if Covid did largely disappear we would still sell every POC test we could make because the threat will still be there and people will want to know and we still have to learn from this virus, so the risk for us that we dont get the sales is low. Other countries are still on an upward curve. It is going to take every country to have the same level of discipline for years to beat this thing. It only takes one person to start it off again and we cant keep borders closed, pubs closed, life on hold etc for ever. The only way out of this is through the success of the scientists and bio/pharma companies.

Lots of talk about pub gardens opening to save jobs etc. There is a clear shift in lockdown policy to ensure the economy is back in focus with the state bill for this virus getting bigger every day.
Antibody testing wont solve the problem, but it will help. It will be a very big win for government to have the tests ready to start collecting valuable data. Things are happening out of order, because of pressures on the economy and for the population to get out of lockdown. There is no better time than this week to announce the test is ready.

25k jobs at risk at heathrow because of quarantine. The economy needs some help if it's to continue in a recovery phase. Immunity passports will give a boost to stepping in the right direction.

https://www.itv.com/news/london/2020-06-08/heathrow-boss-warns-of-25-000-job-losses-as-14-day-quarantine-system-introduced/

Mologic have 3 tests:

POC test which is aimed at low cost third world, so not in competition with us and wont be as accurate
Rapid Professional Use Test which has accuracy of circa 96%
Elisa Lab tests (Our test) 99%

It's looking like the Lab test could be better than Roche/Abbott if the stories are true

I personally dont think the Mologic Lab test is our main ticket. I don't know if the Lab test manufacturing capacity could be transformed for more POC test production. Making as many POC tests is the key to our success IMO. Mologic tests a bonus.

The difference between ODX and those companies are ODX were already profitable and cash flow positive. The others all loss making and net cash outflows.

The most important information we have learnt is that it will be integrated into the NHS test and trace app. The value to be returned from the Government investment is data collection.

"The consortium is working with NHSX to develop a test specific app and digital service that will facilitate use and reading of the test device. This will have the ability to integrate with NHS systems and update records."

Likliehood is the government will make some sort of upfront payment to secure the tests.

reality will hit when q2 earnings land in a months time. which may well coincide with a second wave

they have already expanded.

The last virus to be eradicated was smallpox with it's last case in 1977 and the WHO not declaring it eradicated until 3 years later. Its highly unlikely Covid 19 will go away in the space of a few months based on previous history.

Chris Whitty on the daily briefing last night saying we will be living along side this for some time.

Some additional context taken from a recent circular below with some further thoughts. We have recently signed an agreement for 500k (circa £2.1m) CD4 tests, 100k (circa £400k) tests was to be ordered within 14 days. That is a big order for Omega. Food tolerance tests, orders of 20 odd thousand worth £0.3/£0.4m respectively.

Now think Covid; we will be making 200k and hopefully up to 500k POC tests per week plus 230k to 500k Lab tests per week!! If you are struggling to understand the increase in valuation just think about those numbers for a second. 0.5-1m tests per week when it is used to dealing in orders in tens of thousands.

"Both versions of the CD4 test have now received purchase orders. On 16 August 2019 the Company
announced a purchase order in from its distributor in Nigeria for 50,000 units of its VISITECT® CD4 350
test, with an order value c. £210k. This order is conditional upon the Nigerian Ministry of Health approving
the Company's VISITECT® CD4 350 test into its national HIV policy, a process which is still ongoing at
present. In addition, on 20 August 2019, the Company announced the purchase order for the VISITECT®
CD4 Advanced Disease Test for 20,000 units with an order value of c.£80k from its partner company in
Zimbabwe. The order from Zimbabwe was not contingent upon the recently announced conclusion from
the UNITAID-funded Expert Review Panel for Diagnostics as this order will supply into B2B marketing
channels, rather than Non-Government Organisations.
4.2. Allergy
Since signing the distribution agreement with Imuunodiagnostics Systems ('IDS') in April 2018, the Company
has continued to develop allergens for IDS' automated instrument. The Company has grown the CE-Marked
allergens menu to 62 allergens in total that can be run on the IDS automated instrument.
4.3. Food Intolerance
Following the development of a new Chinese version of the Company’s 46-panel Food Detective® test, the
Company announced on 16 August 2019 and 10 September 2019 that it has received a purchase order
from its new partner in China for 20,000 and 26,896 units respectively, with order values of c. £290k and
c. £400k respectively. The Company believes that the food intolerance division offers a longer-term growth
opportunity, particularly in the US and China."

I have absolutely no concerns with this at all. There is only one diagnostics company that might be better placed than Omega right now, and that's Abingdon, our consortium lead and not a listed company. We will be manufacturing and selling the worlds leading Covid test.

There is no sunk R&D spend to recover here. It's a government funded product we will be given the spec and then churn out as many units as possible. Demand will be so high they will never make more than they can sell which is dreamland for any product. Pure volume play. Selling price less cost of sales. Free cash flow to the company, which could be used to invest in other products, buy back shares or return profits to shareholders.

Aside from Covid, the business was starting to turn up from other products. Cash flow generative and profitable. A well run company, going about it's business doing and then telling, not creating hype and then failing to deliver.

No Omega do not need a placing the development is government funded and they have a product coming this month, all free cash flow. May even get payment upfront from the government.

Already cash generative and profit making.

£5.5m revenue in 17 month period. They have just raised 11 years worth of revenues. There’s no evidence to suggest they will ever get a Covid test to market. Hope it doesn’t fail but needs some independent validation asap

You could say they have done well to raise that amount at that price considering where they were and what they actually have achieved versus what they are claiming to be able to achieve.
Didn’t like the CEO from the moment he did the presentation. I hope they can get this POC test to market but I would put the chances of success no higher than 25%. What’s the £10m for aren't Cytiva doing the development?

"We now move onto the next phase of this project"

As per my post yesterday, i suspected that this was now about integration with data collection and NHS app.

There are some very specific points from this update....

1) The test is performing in line with the requirements, which was to be as accurate as humanly possible, 100% or as close as. So this appears confirmed.
2) They are already working with Government and regulatory authority on approval process. This will be top priority all other approvals wait in line
3) That the results will for part of the test and trace strategy and they are working with NHSX on development of an app
4) Test will be made available direct to the public with logistics well under consideration
5) "will make a significant difference to the approach needed to manage COVID-19 infections" further validation that these tests compliment the lockdown relaxation and route back to normal life

We now move onto the next phase
We now move onto the next phase
We now move onto the next phase

6) "scale the product to the desired volume quickly" - already been happening for the past few weeks.

There is a clear line in the sand here been crossed in terms of progress, this is not just a reminder that they exist.

I suspect this rns is to enable them to start talking about this more openly. Questions coming up in daily briefings perhaps can be a bit more transparent now.
This is not a delay rns, its everything is on time RNS. We know they are already in the process of scaling up through expansion and hiring.

It looks like there were some chunky buys around 77-78 just after the RNS and they may have already been working an order when it landed. I'll expect to see it gently rise over the next few sessions and more money comes in.

I am kind of hoping to get another payday top up in now though but just over 2 weeks for that!!!