Member Info for Merchantbanker

John newton said that these test are undergoing evaluation, he didn't say they are still in development. Design freeze is supposed to be achieved before evaluation.

Of course it is design freeze is when the partners agree on a final design. One could just not agree until they want to agree or until the timing suits them to agree. They could spend a week debating a very minor point because they want to delay design freeze and then when it suits them, low and behold we have design freeze.

Design freeze is subjective..... when is design freeze, the moment they achieve a product that is 100% accurate? the moment they have a final design? or the moment they all nod their heads and say government are ready now we can sign off on it.

Fact is they can unofficially agree amongst themselves design freeze is achieved, but we wont sign off on it yet until the Gov say we can. We might just pretend we are still tweaking something.....

It is clear they have been given a date by when they must be in a position to have the test complete, tested, approved, manufactured and available. There is no margin for error here.

I wouldn't say it's unrelated as i think those 3 events could all come at the same time. The timing of these events will align with government policy. I think the whole thing will go from radio silence to ready to rock and roll and on the shelves in a very short space of time.

I am certain we will know anything before a daily briefing. Look at the roche announcement it started going around at about 3pm.

Anyone can pick a period of time that suits their narrative. Chances are if you set the time period Jan 20 to Dec 20, ODX will be right up there in terms of growth.
Over the last few weeks others might have gone up more, but you can't predict which shares are going to do what at each point in time. Other stocks are ahead because of a few reasons such as antigen tests, always going to be ahead as that's an easier test to bring to market and it is needed first. There is no home antibody test kit maker ahead of us as there is no listed competition. Some of the other stocks will fall by the wayside, i believe this will continue to grow steadily over the next 18 months. It is very clear there is a lot of progress that has not been announced versus other companies that will rns the opening of an envelope.

We have a clear plan, a clear time frame and a clear strategy. It might not have been officially announced, but there are enough clues if you do the research

They always said antibodies was the key to easing lockdown. They have gone ahead and started easing lockdown. Antibody testing needs to catch up. There is a real lack of confidence out there, people not wanting to send kids back to school, many thinking it's too soon and still many who are very scared about this virus.

Antibody testing will start to grow confidence, firstly for those that had it already, and secondly it will show the true death rate and people will start to hear about many people around them that had it and they didn't even know. This will help restore some confidence. Immunity will only grow as new infections happen every day.

CK mentioned the app we are working on to accompany the tests. It's clear the NHS app was not good enough and needs something more advance, something that is based on actual test results.

"Expect questions about the government's track and trace system, whether it was safe to re-open schools today, and whether lockdown measures are being lifted too quickly."

Are you kidding group of rampers??? There was 285k buys went through and you think it's up on a ramp!!!!

Im certain they have been working towards a set deadline which fits with the government strategy. Just a question of when do the government want these tests out there. I am sure the consortium are ready to go

It's good to know there are good people around making money from investing (not trading) for the benefit of others, unlike most of the selfish so and so's around wishing others to lose money for their own gain.

Mr Sneller has a charitable trust, he has been donating holdings from his personal investments into the trust for years. Being they are transferred to a trust it's not a given they will be sold immediately. You dont have a charitable trust unless you have significant wealth, and you want to set up some kind of legacy. Telling that he hasn't sold a share for personal gain, only transfer to the charity. Top man.
Gift of shares is one of the most tax efficient ways to gift to charity. He is potentially sitting on a very large CGT bill.

Remember

“Another antibody test being pioneered by Oxford University could be available by the end of May, according to Professor John Newton, the UK's national testing co-ordinator.”

22 May - don’t buy Superdrug tests better test coming very soon. Note he says they are under evaluation, not in development.

"My advice would be to wait until we have better tests which will be available in a similar form very soon, though they are still under evaluation at the moment."

How many of the press are going to ask about you know who?

CK was always going to be more cautious than over promise.

Superdrug tests taken off shelves - John Newton - Better tests coming very soon. Very soon, not just soon

14 day quarantine comes in on 8th June. I expect news on antibodies and immunity certification by then.

CK confirmed we are working on an app... tweet below from Abingdon shows where the UK gov app is heading and how test and trace will develop into this world leading system

https://twitter.com/Abingdon_Health/status/1250083325252972545?s=20

Small matter of the 20 + urgent jobs going at Omega site

Abingdon been recruiting for immediate start roles since end of April.

Earlier comment at least 3 weeks ago from CK saying design freeze weeks not months away.

Spot on Dibs. I think a lot of the pre news move for positions happened yesterday under cover of the speeding ticket.

It is absolutely nailed on what is happening here and it will happen some time in June. I don't think most of us care if it's the 1st of June or the 30th. It matters not.

So in summary, news that is going to make it rocket is only 1 week away, but it's going to drop 30% in anticipation of it? Good one that.

I see a thread on twitter on this, im not on twitter, but to continue ...

"Simple question - How would you stop an infected person getting on a plane, going to a football match? going into work?

They are not stopping infected people getting on planes. The safety net is the quarantine period. Fact is they are leaving people to decide if they want to take the risk, the consequence is the quarantine period. Yes they have mitigation methods such as social distancing, hand washing, temperature screening. Quarantine protects the receiving country, not an antigen test. The only way of ensuring a person on a flight is not infected is if they have taken a positive antibody test and have certification. Fact is an antigen test does not stop an infected person getting on a flight. If you had 10,000 passengers going to an airport to a test centre, it could only take one positive person to infect the other 9,999. But the other 9,999 will produce a negative test on the day of infection, so they will be a ticking time bomb for wherever they land.
Football matches - if the risk is high enough to want to test 50 thousand people to let them in a stadium, they simply will remain closed door events. Again how do you congregate a crowd to a testing centre, when one infected person could infect the other 49,999.
Going to work - this is one area when tests could be used on a more regular bases, funded by employers.

Antibody testing is in the government strategy, with certification.

There is a big market for home based antigen tests. It looks like Sano are leading the way with this. But that market is in the likes of boots etc where someone with symptoms can order a test. But the number of these home antigen tests wont be as high as you might think, because infection rate is dropping, more people are getting immunity all the time, and a lot of people are asymptomatic.

I think concentrating on the travel market is pointless for either test, because the market is everybody anyway, its so small compared to where global demand will be. Everybody that hasn't already given a positive test is the market.

But the point about travel is that anyone can go get on a flight now, i have copied below the guidance from Heathrow airport. It's about social distancing, washing hands, etc etc. There is nothing stopping any of us booking a flight. The sticky bit is receipt of passengers from overseas and the quarantine that receiving countries may impose. 14 day quarantine in the UK. A negative antigen test will not exempt you from a 14 day quarantine period because you could have contracted the virus that day and tested negative, but an antibody test will exempt you from quarantine. The quarantine period is the barrier to travel, because there's no point going away for a 3 day break in spain and having 14 days quarantine on either side.

Enhanced monitoring is in place for all flights. This includes the provision of advice leaflets, social distancing measures, increased hand sanitiser units, complimentary face coverings, having Public Health England (PHE) colleagues and doctors on site, and trialing temperature screening in Terminal 2 Arrivals and a small number of Terminal 5 departures. The UK Government has also announced that from 8th June all passengers arriving in the UK will be required to complete a mandatory 14-day period of self-isolation.

You are crazy if you think they are going to allow everyone to congregate at airports to get an antigen test before letting them on a flight.

One of the major floors in this theory is that you will produce a false negative test 100% of the time on the day you catch the virus. This will not stop receiving countries imposing a 14 day quarantine just because you were negative on the day of a flight.

Key to unlocking travel is immunity passports. It is all about antibodies. Certification of a test taken in your own home

DubleD this is pretty standard wording, if you look at some other examples of similar RNS on other companies.

What it really is saying is they don't know of any leaks, it isn't saying there are no material developments expecting to be delivered. I think the rest of it could have been worded better and could have been an opportunity to install some confidence.

The expectation of design freeze, production etc is all public info. Fact is they could have received a call from someone in the consortium informing them design freeze is achieved 2 seconds after this RNS and it would still have been valid at the time. Although i would argue that the upscaling of the production facility is material news and perhaps should have been in an RNS, but i guess it's contingent on the design and the orders so thats probably why. We can all see from the clues that this is as good as over the line IMO.

“we know of no material reason for price increase”.