Member Info for Merchantbanker

Its part of the testing strategy 5 pillars. Why would they do it with anybody elses test that they have already discredited??

It cracks me up how you set up a new account today to post that here!!! If you were interested in that and you just joined because of that why not over there posting on that stock?!?!
Its a corporate offering with no government support, and small fish compared to the mass scale POC tests and NHSX app we are interested in.

True Chrishutch, but i dont think we need Covid 19 to have more waves to get the sales. Even if we have this under control, part of the control will be ongoing testing for a number of years. If we do get it under control it will be because of testing, social distancing, changing the way we live and possibly eventually a vaccine. So i prefer to hope for a world where covid does go away and its because of things like our tests and we continue to maintain that discipline to test, track and trace.

Picking up from some other points:

Immunity - virus is just over 6 months old and we havnt heard of anyone globally that has had it twice

Significance of design freeze - it will move on quickly from there with the NHSX app, distribution and government strategy telling a how we can get them and what the results means

Relaxation of lockdown - regardless of where we are the testing program will go ahead for some time. It only took a handful of cases with a high r to get us to the spike we had, it could happen again.

Demand - demand will far outway supply. Uk is expected to be the primary market with government directing distribution. But we don’t have to worry about how many the government want or need, there will be a private market and a global market that will far outway however many the 4 companies can make

Impact of Covid tests to the business - I thing the long term future of ODX is being greatly underestimated. Pillar 5 is about building a home grown diagnostics industry capable of dealing with all future healthcare needs. These 4 companies are now at the centre of this and will have significant free cash flows over the next few years to invest. There has to be some consolidation in the industry imo

Potential share price - this is unlike any of the other companies out there. Government backed, gold standard test that will not be surpassed. They are already cash flow positive. The Covid journey has barely started yet and there are significant developments to come. The next two months is going to be very exciting for ODX and by the end of this year they will be a different company. Anyone who is targeting design freeze as an initial target or strike point to sell will do well, but things will quickly grow from there.

When this news lands it will do so with a great deal of fanfare. It will arrive like Prince Ali's entourage from the new Aladdin film, if anyone's familiar with that!!! I wouldn't worry about the daily share price movements or the clever cogs negative comments.

UK Government backed world leading, gold standard antibody test, with NHSX app developed with Apple and Google support, distributed by boots and amazon, with immunity certification for positive results.

Some of the Covid stocks are falling back because they are starting to show they are not quite what they have promised to be. Competition is high and better offerings are coming to market.

No worries with ODX, under promise over deliver approach. This will be the gold standard anitbody test so no fears about competition. This is the best Covid play out there IMO with a link into UK government strategy with immunity certificates. At some point in the next couple of weeks we will see a rerate. Over the rest of this year this will grow and grow into a cash generating machine. 2-3 years of substantial free cash flows coming our way.

I would say maybe a week later validation to design freeze. It will be top priority, all other tests wait in line. The government tend to tee up each stage about a week before it's ready. But also still suspect it will be a case of timing with strategy.

Ethio - who knows seems to be a bit of a stand off at the moment, volume down. Reasonable expectation of at least doubling your money in the next 13 trading sessions, so cant see to much downside, but that's plenty of time for more tricks.

Yeah agree was looking at the wedge ending this afternoon, plus a longer term trend line to be challenged tomorrow morning. Strong support at 50 so could see a nice break above. Could be good timing for FOMO. The last time we reached the end of a similar wedge was just before the sky news interview and it was already breaking on the up when this landed. But seems like being controlled in range so may see extension of sideways movement for another week (my personal preference as next Friday will chuck another 5k in).

Take into account the primary purpose of setting up the UK RTC was at the Government's request to develop a quality life saving test and to be able to upscale production in order to satisfy demand. Profit is not the primary objective, although clearly there is significant profit to be made and this will form investment for Pillar 5 into the long term growth and capabilities of the countries diagnostics industry.

The article is aimed at slightly different type of projects, but the key point is a profit share agreement is a JV. A consortium is a collaboration on a common goal where each party is responsible for their own delivery and the associated risk and reward.
Omega, Abingdon and BBI have all up-scaled production capabilities, they are all striving to produce as many as they can.

It says the design and standard operating procedures will be shared for manufacturing and assembly. So once it's signed off they all have equal rights to the design spec.

If it was a profit share arrangement it would be some sort of Joint venture agreement rather than a Consortium MOU. In a JV there will be a profit share arrangement, in a consortium each party normally profits from their own contribution.

Below link covers the differences.

https://afitac.com/2018/11/23/consortium-joint-venture-different/

Why would they share profits? The collaboration is about development to achieve design freeze, the second stage is manufacturing. They each have manufacturing capacity, probably Abingdon and Omega will produce more units. UKRTC is about collaboration and progress into manufacturing and upscaling production capacity, it's not a commercial enterprise in itself.
It will be share with each party, so other than satisfying priority government orders and instructions of meeting distribution requirements, they can each commercialise on their own accord.

Design is shared with each member so once in production it's how many can each member make for their own sales.

"Once the COVID-19 Rapid Test reaches design freeze, then the specification and standard operating procedures will be shared with each party of the consortium to enable manufacturing and/or assembly to be undertaken at each site, including at Omega's manufacturing facility in Alva, Scotland, according to capability."

Couldn't agree more, this is a huge multi billion dollar operation. It will require continued innovation. The companies out the blocks early are not necessarily the companies that will experience the longer term benefit.

It's incredible how Omega are at the centre of the test that every single person wants to know more about.

It's also a master stroke by CK, i read something that the Mologic deal came about from a discussion on another matter and he managed from that to get us involved in 5 Covid tests.

There is so much potential for this company once they start to generate the free cash flows from selling these tests. They are expert at managing a business on a shoe string, imagine the progress the can make with significant cash flows coming in.

Tim Brown is hardly going to give away developments and price sensitive information that will come from much higher profiles than himself. The look on his face when that question came up, he would have put his house on that being the most common question! All he can do is be consistent with the messages already announced.

Anyone saying covid is done this gives a huge indicator of how early we are at tackling this virus. Omega are positioning themselves right in the centre of the diagnostics drive. The only complaint you can have here is you want it now! Clearly it will be timed with government strategy, as many of us have said all along.

Piper i think we are more than just a manufacturer for Mologic. The Material Transfer Agreement is unclear of the terms, but it mentions we will commercialise with Mologic, so it sounds like we will both use our routes to market, that we both already have in Africa and elsewhere. We will have margin on top of our cost before selling price either way. The MTA should give us the right to market and sell the tests, perhaps with a royalty to be paid to Mologic.

Probably different pricing strategies for different markets.

Faz - that was where i was leaning as well regarding Mologic - However, we know POC tests we will never be able to meet demand, so why would we commit to making 5 Mologic tests if we could use that capacity to make POC tests? These tests even at low selling price are low cost, easy to produce and high volume.

The other point from the RNS is the home antigen test, this is what has really sparked my interest.

Here is a list of developments we are waiting for in order of importance:

POC test design freeze
Update on production capacity
PHE England approval, CE mark and other approvals
Orders and distribution agreements
Government guidance on mass antibody testing, collection of data, NHSX app, and immunity certification
Mologic at home Antigen test update, CE mark and production (massive unknown quantity which could double our scope if good enough)
Mologic Elisa lab antibody test further orders/further registrations/approvals
Mologic lab antigen test CE mark and production
Mologic rapid test ce mark and production
CD4 test further orders
Food tolerance test approvals