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AVCT valuation gives me sleepless nights and im not even invested!

Yes big upside with their test, but its all very much unproven and conceptual. I dont disagree with long term value if they pull it off, but i think the if is a lot bigger there and it must be an uncomfortable valuation with such a big if.

Again yes the cancer side of business could be exceptional and groundbreaking, but its still low COS, and they have used Covid to raise funds for it. What makes me laugh is AVCT shareholders dishing ODX because revenue P/E is low. But ODX revenue is bigger than AVCT and value is less.

Yes as a distribution partner they know what to do If a product ever comes to market, but they also have a financial incentive of AVCT SP going up. Id be more impressed if it was an independent partner or if they had a product before announcing the partner. Why announce this partnership so early, before a product has even got to sign off?

Look i wish i was invested in both at the lows, but im not and i wish anyone in there luck. But at todays valuation there its chalk and cheese IMO.

I have said before i dont mention AVCT to play it down, more to highlight the fact that i believe ODX are much better positioned but valuation is substantially less. If i were invested in both as of 1 jan 2020, i would be happy as a pig in sht, but if im putting money in today at today's price, i can only put it in one place.

The difference between AVCT and ODX is really interesting. IMO you have one stock massively overvalued on hype and salesmanship vs a stock that is still relatively under the radar and under priced. I mean they dont even have a test and i would put their chances of success as 25% vs our 95%. They raised funds which 75% was for other business development on the back of Covid tests. That says it all. They have no production capacity, a bull**** distribution agreement with a shareholder. I would rather be invested in an undervalued under sold stock than the opposite. But it gives me confidence where this can go. I dont believe ODX are doing a good job promoting, and i think their advisers have rinsed the opportunity rather than provide shareholder value, but at least we have raised funds for the reason people have invested to create the added value.
At some point the games will stop, the investment case will become clearer and the sp will act accordingly. I have no concerns and if i can add as things develop i will.

Benny, i was really disappointed with the placing at the time because its annoying giving value away to the city scum, but the presentation does ease my concerns. I think i was unrealistically expecting they would be selling 100s of thousands of tests immediately, which is unrealistic. As much as it is testing our patience, we have to remember that what we are trying to do is being achieve in a fraction of the time that it would normally take. If it takes until September or even the end of the year to be producing 2m tests per year then so be it. What people need to realise is that manufacturing capacity is the value. This capacity will be carried forward into the next pandemic or the next disease or anything where lateral flow development will be required. One way or another the units we produce will increase into perpetuity.

I think too much is being made on Government order. The key thing is Government approval, we dont need the government to commit to x million tests. They will buy some for sure, but people will pay for them privately and they will be wanted overseas if they achieve the standard they desire.

It's a tiny trade i think we can ignore it as an error or something. Trade type is PRIC on london stock exchange so its not a normal trade. I dont believe the bid was dropped, cut i wasnt watching it.

Very exciting. Keen to know more but clearly one of the reasons for expanding capacity to 1m tests per week.

Mikdox - Yes their focus from the start was an at home POC test. I believe at the time there were no other antibody tests whether lab based or lateral flow that were acceptable. It's in the press release. They were set up focused on a lateral flow test because they knew this is what is required to satisfy testing demand. Lab test is a nice to have but POC test is what we need.

The point i was making re Novacyt is they started working on the test in Jan, it takes time to develop and get to market enabling them to start selling the tests and signing contracts in April, which is where we are we are 3 months behind as we dint start work in Jan like NCYT, this is why they have early adoption advantage.

Corunna - 1m capacity, 200k RTC. If the RTC tests are selling like hot cakes and demand is several times higher and Mologic tests are not, do you think they would leave the 800k capacity vacant if Mologic tests were not?

There has to be some business sense or contractual reason for them declaring these numbers. The value is in the total capacity, the opportunity is in the diverse product offering. Very difficult to know the split of the product mix that will maximise use of that capacity.

The key thing that stands out is the Mologic side is Anitbody and Antigen lateral flow tests. So this capacity could be to produce 800k lateral flow antigen tests.

People are focusing on Mologic as if its just going to be to third world countries. That might be the case with the Lab tests. But the rapid tests and POC tests will have demand everywhere. Mologic have set up a separate entity for production of the tests they intend to supply at cost. Our agreement is a MTA so we can commercialise off out own back through our own distribution channels.

If the sp went to 90 on slip up of manufacturing numbers, well the manufacturing numbers have since doubled. Presentation this morning confirms we are going up to 104m tests per year so win win. This should already be higher the reason it isn't is because the mm have had supply of stock at this level from L&G, charity stock and placing. 37m shares were traded on the day of the sky interview which is substantial. Once the design freeze gets media coverage volume will clear out any remaining overhang and the mms wont have the safety net of a placing to come.

MIKODX - The RTC was set up because the available antibody tests were not fit for purpose, and was set up after hundreds of thousands of Antigen tests had already been carried out. Novacyt started their work in January, before our Government even recognised we had a problem. And they certainly haven't used Avacta as Avacta don't have a test.

Antigen tests are much simpler to produce with the required accuracy. The problem with antigen testing is the time taken, the manual lab process, cost and scalability. There are a lot of viable options out there, but we are now getting to the point where quicker testing is needed, POC testing is needed. There's been talk about the tests we will be using in the coming months wont be the tests we are using now, which will impact some of the early adopters. With Mologic we have all bases covered, but more importantly are developing the more valuable rapid tests and home POC tests. This is the future. The government have already identified a couple of players in this space.

The difference with antibody testing is they are easy and cheap to produce, but difficult to get specificity and sensitivity accurate. The consequence of a wrong result is high. The reason for the RTC was to get a test that met a specific design spec which is fit for purpose. There wasn't such a need for Antigen tests because there wasn't as big a gap as there is for antibody tests.

Roche and Abbott are hardly cleaning up the market, the availability of these tests is very limited and they have been heavily criticised for not claiming to be as accurate as initially thought.

The reason share price is still here is mm have had supply, right from the L&G shares, charity shares and now placing. All demand has been met with a sell. Demand on the buy side is there, once the supply dries up we will be flying. Now the placing is done, there aren't really any negatives, or skeletons or any reason to be concerned. It's now just a case of waiting for the story to unfold.
By the end of this year this company will be worlds apart from where it is today.

SP went to 90p on DF expectation and apparently because it was misconstrued we could produce 50m tests per year..... well with the investment we will be able to produce 104m tests per year across our product mix.

End of Sep we should see manufacturing and sales full steam ahead, share price will be in the £s. Between now and then i expect a steady flow of news with a rerate and consolidation at each level.

Dibs, i was thinking about that point too. They have committed 200k to RTC with another 800k available.

I would like to know more about this. It may be that it's a minimum commitment to giver thme flexibility. I would guess that if the mologic tests dont show demand they would use this capacity for more RTC.
I dont know if we were told initially all capacity would be RTC, we only recently found out we were working with mologic on the other tests.

But the important thing is we are increasing capacity to 2m tsts per year. That is huge. It doesnt really matter too much what the mix of tests is, if we hit that capacity we are quids in.

I think they have tried to help us out with some profit assumptions by talking about 70% margin with another product and the selling price.

All of the RTC members have scaled up production capacity. They wouldn't be doing this is the didn't expect strong demand for these tests.

We are incredibly well positioned with the portfolio of testing options now and they have the ability to adapt their product mix to meet demand.

Yeah ig no trade online. I wounder if they have some spread/cfd positions that were under water or someone is trying to a large position so they are managing their book.
Will continue to be some strange trading, but we have another message saying design freeze June, so i expect this to turn and run up at some point.

1 million Elisa tests per week and 1 million lateral flow ££££££

The fundraising is slingshot finance. It’s not for development, the majority of it is to scale up production. We are only a matter of weeks away of getting into millions of sales. We now have a complete offering of Covid tests soon to go to market. Some of us have been wondering what the company may do for longer term growth, I think allocating funds now to 2 new development tests is a shrewd move to start thinking about the future and further broadening the portfolio now.

Saw a comment saying Omega have not been best advised on the fundraising and I believe this also it’s been

After further reflection I’m looking more forward to the next week or so. It’s always disappointing when a placing hits a company you have a lot of enthusiasm for. And not necessarily because it’s a bad thing, just because all the people that have been negative and sitting in the sidelines wanting cheaper shares get their position whilst us believers go through the rollercoaster ride.

But these funds mean they can go ahead and produce as many tests as possible. I’ve read the rns several times now and I can see how this £11m can help achieve and greatly exceed our growth expectations. With Covid we need as many tests as possible and if that means raising funds to get production up by however many million then I guess so be it.

There is a pandemic on we are at the centre of the fight against it. We have the money to move forward now. All we need is the green light to production and orders.

When can I get my test please, I want one from ODX not Abingdon ;)

Circular to be published on Monday. Not seen any PR from the company today, which could be waiting for the circular Monday, or could be because news is close.

What would be positive is a road map for the Elisa and Lateral flow testing capacity scale up. How long to progress? What will be the capacity? Official confirmation of what has already been achieved regarding scale up. They need to take a look at the likes of Abigndon and BBI from the quality of some of the informative posts and videos they have created and shared. Look at some of the social media, even the website they have is much more advanced. Things have changed quickly here but the company is far behind in terms of IR and marketing. Now is the time to be more proactive they have a much higher profile than they had 5 months ago they need to learn to adapt and quickly.

There is a clear path to significant growth here. It's just a case of when and how. The business is derisked because they already have 2 tests CE marked, but with the more valuable RTC and potentially Mologic antigen test still to follow.

Just had another read. Confirms, lab tests for antibody and antigen testing, plus 3 lateral flow tests, including RTC test and 2 with Mologic. There is a lot more to come from all 5 of these tests. The Elisa and POC antigen test are in development. The Mologic POC antibody test are already CE marked so we could already be making these tests. SO expansion of the lateral flow tests £3m looks like its to cover producing not only the RTC but Mologics POC antibody and antigen test.

"The Company intends to develop COVID-19 tests that will help to meet the different needs of global healthcare systems that require both antibody tests (denoting previous infection) and antigen tests (denoting current infection). Omega is now involved with five opportunities relating to COVID-19 testing, of which four utilise Mologic Ltd's ("Mologic") technology platforms. Two are ELISA (lab based) tests, one covering an antigen test and one covering the antibody test which the Company is already shipping, and three are lateral flow tests. Two of the lateral flow tests are in collaboration with Mologic and the third is an antibody test with the UK Rapid Test Consortium as originally announced on 9 April 2020."

Regarding the new development tests:

"With the proceeds from the Fundraising, the Group proposes to also add to its global healthcare portfolio through the development of tests for Cryptococcal meningitis and tests to diagnose tuberculosis in people living with HIV. The market size for both diseases is substantial and accordingly Omega believes this represents a sizeable opportunity over the medium term."

Open offer is available until 7th July. So with the expected time frame of news there is an opportunity to se a nice uplift in price before actioning the acceptance.

Only 7.5m share are admitted next week with 12.5m admitted 13th July after the AGM.