Member Info for Merchantbanker

Calm down guys!!

Birdseye-your original post you did say at the end of the day. Clearly it was 54p at end of the day.

Yes they did drop as low as 41.5p for a brief few seconds at 9.30. Not sure what trades if any went through around that mark. Unfortunately it only has to touch your close out price for a second and with a spread it works on the bid not the lowest trade.

"MMS managed to drop the price at end of day to 0.41 knocking out many stop losses. Filthy.!"

Well no, for buyers this has now become possibly the best stock. For existing holders it's disappointing particularly if you've just topped up. That disappointment can either be enhanced by a couple of weeks of silence and no news, or they can follow up with some PR and give a business case and an investment case and then follow up with news.
The main question is this.... does the £4m to be spent on increased Elisa and lateral flow test capacity grow the company by greater than the % of the dilution? If the answer to that is yes then today will quickly be forgotten.

There are 2 things to remember here.
1) Playing the aim game
2) Playing the investment game

Some are better at 1 some are better at 2. Short term its 1-0 to the 1's; but i think the 2's will be back on top before long.

Disappointed, but just bought even more.

Always ****es me off when there are placing rumours and instead of 7am rns they allow a couple of hours trading first.

Why have they not made more effort to promote the company ahead of the placing?

How about following up the placing with some PR?

I accept that my hopes of managing their way to production would have been challenging without raising, but not impossible. I can certainly see how these funds will make progress much easier. Now come out and give us some transparency. Why have they not officially mentioned the expansion that has already happened? What will be the capacity of test manufacture after the fund raise money is spent? Tell us more about the Mologic tests, in particular the Anitigen POC.

Omega - Over to you to follow up this rns with some reassurance. I still have very high belief and expectation, but its now time to for you to come out and support us and start selling yourselves. Get people on the edge of theri seat and create a positive vibe before news. Dont sit back and just wait for the next news.

And another one thats me ready for news now.

Top up in. :)

We had a 400k share print on the day of mologic RNS and we also had a 450k share print i think on the 29th April.

This print is an off book trade.

Not saying they will invest. Loanjs/Grants.

The UK Government has loaned nearly £40bn to business for Covid support. You dont think they would approve a loan to ODX who are helping fight the disease?

Doesn't even need to be a loan.

All they have to do is say here's £2m well take all your first orders, take this as payment on account. I will be absolutely shocked and disappointed if Colin hasn't explored these avenues.

Do you not think if ODX could increase production by 1m units a week with a couple a million dollars if they picked up the phone to Han****'s office they wouldn't have the money in the bank by the end of the day?! Probably already have done this. Hasn't Colin already said they were making use of various government funding.
The government are loaning money left right and centre, so why would they decline it for production of their own test?!

Well we already know they have increased capacity form the expansion of lab space - do you not usually raise funds for expansion before you expand rather than after? Thing is you cant grow too quickly you need to get production under way, get staff trained up, stress test, ensure quality control and gradually bring capacity up. So my guess they have expanded to a suitable level, probably a couple of months into production they can think about further expansion and grow capacity in a controlled way.

The difference between contract tracing and testing is this.....

The contact tracing app is attempting to identify interactions between people by logging covid status and locations and interactions. It's potential invasion of privacy because there is no consent.

With a testing specific app, if an individual uses this to log their results they are giving consent. By definition you are using this yourself and making your own submission of the results.

We are working on a test specific app, not contact tracing. Abingdon and BBI already have the technology for this, this is not new. I'm sure it will be integrated eventually, but the contract tracing bit that's causing the problem is related to tracking the live virus, not tracking testing results of antibodies.

"The consortium is working with NHSX to develop a test specific app and digital service that will facilitate use and reading of the test device"

TBH have grown to quite respect the way Doc carries himself. Not so much with that stunt this morning. Clearly posted something that was nothing knowing it would be cryptically interpreted or used by others and lead to panic. Hope it was worth it and bough t a decent chunk otherwise what's the point.

Do yourself a favour. Instead of second guessing and trying to be lead by others this is one exercise all holders should have already undertaken.

ODX, AVCT, NCYT, GDR + any others that might be of interest to you.

Go and look at the last set of published accounts. Look at profitability and look at cash position and cash flow. Look at the companies that have gone to the market for a placing, are they profitable is cash flow positive? You will understand why from their financials. Regarding ODX, is their use of the overdraft facility reducing..... what does that mean for cash flow?

Then think about if there is r&d to fund or manufacturing capacity. Then in particular about how this applies to ODX.

Then think about proximity to sales. NCYT should show the way here.

You should be able to make up your own mind whether a placing is needed, and understand the different positions and requirements of each company. Don't fall for the "other companies had to place to get over the line" angle.

Talking about those two stocks may be worth another recap where we are in comparison...

AVCT - They started their Covid play a day before the RTC was formed. We are much closer to getting a test to market, but its amazing how many people are complaining how slow the RTC has been compared to AVCT. CEO has admitted they are a long way off and Cytiva aren't even talking about these ground breaking tests. I have doubts they will ever get a test to market. The related party distribution agreement and the recent presentations is all hype propping up the share price. They took the first opportunity to raise £45m which they say funds them to 2023... if they expected significant cash flow from covid tests why would they dilute that much and raise for 2023 if they expected 100s of millions in the door over the next few months? Now they have the money in the bank they seem to be focusing on the core business again which they say is £35m of the £45m they raised on the back of covid. People seem to value the number of times the red button goes off as if thats how value is created.

NCYT - Doing well, the longevity of their revenues i question more than other stocks with the competition being at its highest. Clear today they are looking for innovation and developments, but if POC tests start getting out to market it will hit the likes of NCYT. I do see good value there though and there is a long way to go with sales. They are reaping the rewards from starting their work on Covid testing early which is why they lead the way on sales.

ODX - We are the only one of these companies that were already profitable and cash flow positive before Covid. We are the only one of these involved in a Government funded project. We have so much info out there from partners and RNS showing exactly where this is heading and the scale, yet the price is not reflecting this. This will help shape government polic. This will set the standard and seek global demand. Abingdon have expanded their production to the largest scale in all of Europe which indicates the expected demand. The RTC have taken the time to get the test right. Prioritisation has been secondary, we have to remember that the primary objective is not profit driven. The profit generated by the companies will share pillar 5 of the government strategy to invest in the growth of home grown diagnostics for the future. We also have 5 offerings with Mologic that will greatly increase our ability to supply the world. ODX haven't been out there over promising ramping their share price. Only one sky interview took us to 90p. If i were CK i would wait for the big news too, especially after getting punished for the one bit of PR that he has done.

ODX will be the stand out diagnostics company of the three, that i am sure. They will have significant free cash flows coming through the door in a matter of weeks. The collaboration and relationships established during this pandemic will stand them in great shape for years to c

Worded another way, it's a study of the disease, its not an assessment of the test.

The Ulster test is a surveillance test of the population. It's not a test or validation of the testing kit.

This will be the world's first mass produced home test with any kind of credibility. Not only that, it will be the first test to enable mass scale data collection and analysis of the spread of the disease. Not only that it will be the required test in the UK to enable immunity certificates and therefore the first test to enable a large economy to start working towards some kind of normality. The UK will insist on immunity passports from overseas being achieved with only an approved test to enable travel to the UK without quarantine.

There is no better test out there to be invested in, period.

Throw in the 5 different tests that Mologic have we have all bases covered and a pipeline to achieve sales to whichever level we move to increase production capacity. I do expect we will increase capacity further just like Abingdon have.

The Mologic Antigen test we are yet to learn much about. If this takes off then ODX producing both tests in mass quantities then pick your share price.

This tells you all you need to know about these tests; they have upgraded manufacturing capacity to the largest in Europe, just Abingdon. Add in the other 3 companies, that gives you the idea of scale at which they expect to be producing this test due to unprecedented demand.

"resulting in Europe’s largest capacity for rapid test manufacturing"

https://www.abingdonhealth.com/latest-expansion-and-additional-manufacturing-capacity/

Design Freeze sign off
PHE approval/CE Mark
Into mass production
Distribution channels including Amazon/Boots
NHSX app, with Google/Apple support
Government priority orders
Open global market orders

Mologic 5 tests
High interest in particular in Home Antigen tests
Validations
Country registrations
Further orders

CD4 test further orders

NMPA approval for a self-test version of the Food Detective

Going to be a great ride over the next few months and into next year. What will they do with all the free cash flow? Further investment? Share buy backs? Dividend?

Seriously you can't compare Covid to HIV. One is a highly contagious viral infection and the other is not easily passed between people. It has nothing to do with ignorance or discrimination, it's simple science and rate or risk of transmission.
It's not about control it's about protecting lives. This virus can only transmit if we allow it, therefore it is affected by our behaviour, so why do you think it's unreasonable for us to adapt our behaviour to prevent such transmission? Fact is people that are contagious are a walking weapon, those with no immunity are at risk of infection and further transmission.

If it is proven that immunity negates such risk then we have a system that slowly allows us to start getting society back up and running. It's a choice between nobody travels or those that are immune travel. You can't possibly expect people that are immune to continue to behave the same way, it simply wont happen.

Asking people to restrict their movement is not about denying freedom, it is putting barriers to transmission up. Kind of like drink driving, if you are over the limit you cant drive. Is that violation of a human right to be able to drive and travel or is it law to protect others from a risk? Take alcohol and choice out of it, if you have a medical condition that forbids you from driving? If you are a risk regardless of the nature, the risk should be mitigated. If you are not a risk then there's no need.

All the information is out there it doesn't need a leak, anticipation should build the further we get into June. Potentially a game of chicken for those on the sidelines how far into June do you leave it?