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For the last 2 months share price has driven sentiment rather than the other way around. Some people have tried hard to knock sentiment.
Today's RNS gives the opportunity to start flipping that and rebuilding sentiment so that sentiment can drive share price. It wont happen in a morning but it will happen.
There is so much to be positive about here. It will catch up when the market mechanics allow it.

You are missing the point about the order level. The key is the production capacity. With 4 mologic tests and 1 RTC they will easily use up this capacity.
There's not a chance they will struggle to get orders with the state of the world with Covid and the lack of quality testing.
It is good business to have flexibility in production mix. It wouldn't be good for Omega to commit the full 1m to RTC and then the Mologic antigen POC tests are ready which could be more profitable. ODX are playing this right.

I expect the games arn't over yet so we could be in for a bumpy ride. We all know where this should be, and there will be constant newsflow to make sure it gets there. This is where the placing lays the foundations as we dont have that rick hanging over any rise.
This should certainly push us into a new trading range.
Lets not forget that only a few weeks ago, our best expectation was that we would produce 200k p/w RTC tests and 46k per day Elisa tests. We know have 2m capacity per week.

Look out for any government comment and tie in with testing strategy.
Mologic updates to come
CD4 update to come
Food tolerance update to come.

Broker valuations from £190m (minimum POC sales) - £920m (full use of capacity)

There is absolutely no way the RTC will only want 200k per week from ODX. They set a plan based on UK only demand based on the capabilities. At the time ODX could only make 100k per week but they committed 200k. They will find that firstly they will need more than they thought for the UK because it will required repeat testing, and secondly there will be huge interest from elsewhere. Omega are in a good bargaining position with Mologic, so they will have to work out commercially the best use of 2m tests per week. I am certain that even if Mologic tests never got to market, ODX could sell as many as they can make. I've said from the start the manufacturing capacity is where the value is, and the plan to go to 2m per week is huge. Looking at a facility in Dundee to add to Alva.

Can sell 50k at 50p.

Let's not forget though, the RTC test not only is the gold standard test, but the way it will be used is unlike anything else also. As part of a government strategy to survey the population, with results fed back. Add in immunity passports too, we need a global standard on this.

Not only is this a gold standard test, the delivery and distribution on mass scale will set a global blueprint of how to tackle this virus.

There will be a premium on top of the valuation for being involved in this.

Despite the fact that all the manufactures have scaled up capacity significantly, i still think the biggest problem will be how to make enough tests to meet demand. If they can make 1m tests a week between them they wont have 50m ready this year. If the UK want 50m, surely that will be needed for repeat testing as well. How do you deal with overseas inquiries?

Being a manufacturer with capacity, not reliant on a single product is a position of real strength.

Ethio i honestly don't know. But the fact they have repeated June so many times leads me to believe that it's unlikely they will miss. I suspect they have had a date in the diary since the earlier update.
The thing is they know that as soon as it's been announced they will get a million questions wanting to know what happens next. So i suspect they are prepping a more comprehensive package of announcements to accompany design freeze.

There are 2 things here. What is the RTC position and how does it fit in with government strategy. And Omega's involvement.

Roll back to the third of June - At that point we had the expectation that we might increase capacity to 200k tests per week and potentially could squeeze that a little higher over time, along with 46k per day Elisa tests which we had no idea if they would bring success for us.
The share price opened at 69p on that day when we got the RTC press release.
The argument was it's a delay because people wanted design freeze immediately. No negative news at all and was confirmation that all is going to plan and we should expect to achieve the gold standard test in June.
A few days later we had the Mologic update.
This revealed that instead of 1 tests we would now have access to 4 mologic tests covering antigen and antibody tests both at home and in the lab.
The first order was announced, which was argued to be negative because of the value. Well that was only the first order, with distribution channels opening up to 75 other countries so it is very much just the start. Completing a first order is big news regardless of the size or value. Good news but no idea how we plan to commercialise all of this.

Then we get the 40p placing. Obviously we were disappointed with the price and it has clearly put the brakes on.
However the next day we get then presentation and those that have sen the broker note will know. It has become clear that the funds they raised have greatly exceeding any ambition that we might have had a couple of weeks ago in what can be achieved here. We now have a plan to increase capacity up to 2m tests per week. This is a much more substantial operation that i ever could have anticipated, i thought we might be able to get to 1m at most. SO the 20% dilution is a small price to pay for the ambitions in the plan for the use of the funds. They will really be putting these funds to work for substantial growth, not for salaries and blind hope in R&D.

So 69p a share with no cash in the bank and expectation to be making around 500k tests per week everyone could see massive upside in value, to today with a plan to get capacity to 4 x the level expected plus 3 new Mologic tests including Antigen lateral flow and Lab, which will be very lucrative.

There is so much value to be had here. Broker top end forecast is £920m MCAP. Even the bottom end which assumes they will only make the 200k RTC tests is £190m.

Design freeze is a significant milestone. I think this test will exceed expectations in its popularity. The RTC plan so far is only for UK use. With international interest, we could open up a market with higher returns.

I am expecting our RTC tests to be distributed by government through the likes of Amazon, with the aim that everybody gets a test and feeds results back to a government database. In my opinion being involved in this test commands a premium valuation beyond the base financial upside.

The next 6 months here will give a steady share price growth and constant positive newsflow. GLA

This guy gives me so much confidence that the RTC are all over this. In terms of investible people this guy would be right up there. He's obviously not Omega but he's at the centre of one of our 4 lucrative plays. (The 4 being RTC, Mologic, Food tolerance, CD4 - it's important to understand that each of these is significant in it's own right). Not only him but the other people involved in this too, we have the luxury of a heavyweight development team producing the gold standard test. The process they will go through to get a test ready for approval will be far beyond what other companies have done. Remember it's usually the likes of Oxford that are doing the validation so why would a consortium including Oxford put forward a test that doesn't meet their own standards?

It really has been absolute gold in terms of understanding what's happening here. I would be shocked if the RTC didnt ask Omega to produce more units than the 200k agreed which was from a time when Omega capacity was only 100k. Omega then will have to assess best use of their capacity with the Mologic tests as they come on board.

There is so much value to be unlocked here, this will be just the start of it. We have potentially more lucrative products to come with Mologic. I believe the hype of being involved in the RTC will bring a premium valuation beyond even what it is actually worth which is certainly significant upside from here.

"The Rapid Test Consortium, involving Oxford University and four UK manufacturers - BBI Solutions, Abingdon Health, CIGA Healthcare and Omega Diagnostics - has claimed its device, which uses a finger prick of blood to produce results in 10 minutes, is highly accurate.

Sir John Bell, Regius Professor of Medicine at Oxford University, who has been overseeing the government's antibody testing validation and strategy, said: "We've really set the gold standard in what you need to expect from these tests and I suspect a lot of people will be really interested in what we have produced in the last couple of months."

In terms of prevalence of the virus, you only have to remember it only took one case for it to start. So how do you completely get rid of it if one case could restart the cycle again? Only through immunity.

The last time a virus was completely eradicated was smallpox with the last case in 1977, but it wasn't declared eradicated until 3 years later. That is what we are dealing with here, unfortunately a virus that will be around for some time.

Now would be a good time for CK to go back on Sky news!

What design freeze means for us is the the members of the RTC are happy that the test meets the governments standard. Most of the tests such as Abbott etc are self approved. So Abbott/Roche has made their own tests and assessed it themselves and conveniently decided its good enough to sell millions and lead people down the garden path. It's nopw being proven they are not good enough.

For us to get to design freeze we can already see there are research programs out there, plus we are already working with Oxford. So there will be a great deal of scrutiny before it gets to design freeze. PHE will put this to the top of the queue to assess and they wont have a problem getting a CE mark.

In terms of orders, it appears the government are planning on sending these out to everyone. If you are going to do that you probably need to stock pile 50m. Everyone will need to do the test at the same time. We have already committed to make 200k per week for RTC which was agreed when our capacity was 100k per week so we already have an order for as many as we plan to make.

Comparing to AVCT RNS yesterday is pointless, that was to say they had a prototype, which is where we were in April.

Design freeze will not only confirm the job's a good en, but it will confirm the government strategy is good to go.

IMO it should see a significant rerate on design freeze and this is the start of the journey for ODX.

1 RTC Design Freeze
2 CE Mark and other validations
3 Supply agreements
4 Distribution agreements
5 NHSX App
6 Government testing strategy
7 Mologic further Elisa Orders
8 Food Self Tests
9 CD4 WHO approval
10 CD4 further orders
11 Mologic Antibody Lateral Flow Test - Development, CE Mark, Orders
12 Mologic Antigen Lab test - Development, CE Mark, Orders
13 Mologic Antigen Lateral Flow test - Development, CE Mark, Orders

Wow nice to wake up to such a high level of ****housery...

There is absolutely no reason to be negative about this company. They are about to go on a transformational journey. Anyone saying otherwise either has an agenda, hasnt got a clue or is just an idiot.

Dibs - it seems the following ws your concern....

Firstly 200k tests was what was originally expected of Omega in relation to UKRTC. Obviously at the time they only had capacity for 100k. Without the Mologic agreement they wanted have seeked such a large scale up investment. Would people be happier if our total capacity was 200k and it was going all to RTC???!! The other 800k is flexible to demand. But it seems the Mologic tests may be more profitable after all, and with distribution to 75 countries already in scope, that's 800k for 75 markets vs 200k for 1. Also it seems the Antigen tests are more profitable than antibody tests. So i wouldn't worry too much about use of capacity, i think they have it all planned out. I think the demand for UKRTC will far outway supply still but it leaves us flexible. I suspect the UK Government will keep these tests to themselves for a while before opening up to overseas. I think what Omega have done is very shrewd.

"However, the bit that slightly concerns me is that now, only 200k tests pw will be committed to the UK-RTC. The remaining 800k tests pw will be committed to the Mologic tests - either antibody or antigen dependant on demand. I would like to know why because this is a significant change. It suggests there is potentially less demand anticipated from the UK government and/or they are switching strategy to overseas (and particularly African) sales. This, to my mind, places some uncertainty over gauging demand, margin, and certainty of sales. For me its the most important point to emerge from the presentation"

Everything here is relevant to us post the MTA

https://mologic.co.uk/news/

What you have to remember is most of the tests out there today already in use have got their weaknesses in some way, whether it be accuracy, cost, time taken for results or something else. The range of solutions we are working through might not be the first to the market, but they are designed to meet the desired spec and will be the ones that take over the baton from the early adopters or provide access to wider markets.

There is a chain of events here that will get this to £100sm MCAP in a relatively short space of time.. Sell at no 1.... I certainly wont be.

1 RTC Design Freeze
2 CE Mark and other validations
3 Supply agreements
4 Distribution agreements
5 NHSX App
6 Government testing strategy
7 Mologic further Elisa Orders
8 Food Self Tests
9 CD4 WHO approval
10 CD4 further orders
11 Mologic Antibody Lateral Flow Test - Development, CE Mark, Orders
12 Mologic Antigen Lab test - Development, CE Mark, Orders
13 Mologic Antigen Lateral Flow test - Development, CE Mark, Orders

Agree Woodstock. Plenty of upside to MCAP for design freeze. Food detective and CD4 tests underpin MCAP.

Omega practically have a minimum supply agreement with RTC of 200k. "The intention is for every person in the UK to receive a test at home, the results of which will fed back into a central database to understand who has been infected by the SARS CoV-2 virus and generated antibodies (and, potentially, immunity to it). Omega will be expected to manufacture the LFDs, seal in a foil pouch and ship them in bulk for onward distribution through carriers such as Amazon." You can bet this will be repeated as we go through time with this virus.

Mologic MTA is so much bigger than given credit for. Antigen tests likely to be more profitable

Broker top end valuation is £920m at full capacity utilisation. Bottom end valuation which basically accounts for minimal Covid test impact is £190m. They are not going to start churning out millions overnight, there's a plan over the rest of this year to get everything going, but potential here is incredible. Accumulate and hold IMO.

No i am referring to the FInncap broker note - i am currently reading through it its blowing my mind. It's confirming everything that i think about this company and if not more.

Has anyone seen the full broker note? Apparently there are scenario forecasts at different levels up to capacity. Seems like they are keeping it to restricted investors for now.

This seems to suggest validation and CE marking will came in June with design freeze along with orders.

I wonder if one of the research programs going on is related to CE marking.

https://twitter.com/Belcourtoi/status/1275309233475588097/photo/1