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Just reading through the placing RNS.
As we are told placing is split into 3. 7.5m shares first placing, 12.5m shares second placing and the Open Offer.

This is due to pre-emption rights. What i am struggling with though is per the last resolution it appears they have authority to issue up to 50m shares so i am not sure why the second admission needs approval. It looks like 20m of the authority has been used with the last placing and directors options, so it still appears under the limit. It appears from the circular to be because they are not offered to existing shareholders first but i cant see anything in the resolutions that says this has to happen. I might be looking in the wrong place. Anyone know?

This potentially could be whats driving this. So the problem is over half, 12m of the the 20m total placing shares, are conditional on shareholder approval at the meeting on the 10th. If they are forward sold, if the share price say got to £1 post design freeze and the second placing doesn't get approved, then they are in the **** as they cant cover the short with the placing shares. So a short of 12m shares at say 55p average, waiting for the 12m placing at 40p would make them £1.8m, if the placing got cancelled and the share price got to £1 on news, they are short 12m shares at 55p which would be a loss of £5.4m if having to close at £1. Holding the market at the placing price mitigates the risk as they can cover any short either way.

What if shareholders voted for the OO and said £6m is enough and voted against the second tranche of placing shares? It's enough based on the plan to get the testing capacity up and running. I think the problem is more the conditional nature of over 50% of the placing stock, with the potential upside in value. Unlikely it will get votred down, but a risk of a huge loss vs a large gain is enough to be worried.

It is 100% manipulated for broker/MM balancing of books/profit, thats without starting on the 40p discounted price in the first place. Not a chance with Mologic and RTC it should be at this value. All we can do is wait for it to sort out unfortunately and buy as many as possible IMO.

Sir John Bell talks about this being the "gold standard" tests.

Gold standard has a particular importance in medical terms, its not just a glossy term to make it sound good. Gold standard is the test that is consider to be the highest accuracy for which all other tests should be compare against, the benchmark. The gold standard test is considered to give without doubt the definitive result, the test all other tests are validated against, and any other test with a different result is considered wrong.

For a Lateral flow test to be the Gold standard and not a lab test, that gives you an idea of what exactly they are trying to achieve here. If you think they will have to worry about orders you really have no idea of the quality of the product and the scale of what ODX are involved in. Lab tests are expensive mainly because of the process and the human element and the logistics and also have a long lead time to results. The lateral flow devices can be produced for pence and enable self testing anywhere in the world with results in 10 minutes. Even at a modest price of £1.50 per unit, with a potential market in the billions of units they will never make enough.

Remember 200k was just what was agreed when ODX had capacity of 100k per day. ODX also have access to potentially 2 mologic tests. 1m capacity wont even scratch the surface of demand IMO.

Upomega - i'll second that.

From my memory of Dibs posting, in honesty i dont have a problem. You buy or hold if you believe a price is going up you sell if you believe a price is going down. I think there is a line that many cross in terms of their posting after taking such action i dont think the line has been crossed. I will debate some of the comments I don't have a problem with it. Immunity questions are irrelevant. In fact if immunity only lasts say 6 months, wont we need more antibody tests? Orders i've posted on.

In terms of belief in the share price, clearly those that believed after the placing it would drop to the placing were correct and those of us that believed design freeze would increase the SP are wrong.
However, this is by design of market mechanics. It is not by design of fair value of the share price. We cannot fight against the market. All we can do in these circumstances is question whether the price makes sense based on the growth potential of the business, and even at the most prudent of modelling you get a share price multiples of the current one. If there is a reason for the price avoid. If the share price doesn't seem right for the newsflow, buy as many as you can.

There is no way you can argue that a share price that was trading quite happily in the 50-60p range is worth less after 1) an expanded Mologic agreement giving us 3 more tests including antigen lab and lateral flow giving us access to the full market of covid testing, 2) funding increasing the manufacturing capacity of the business 8/10 fold 3) design freeze validating that our trophy test has completed it's development phase.

There is not a chance in hell that 20% dilution devalues the business after those 3 updates. This is not funding to keep the lights on and the salaries paid for another year, this is for substantial growth. But here we are. You have 3 choices. Be a seller, buyer or a holder.

One thing i am sure of this will be the last placing this company will ever need. Over the next 2/3 years they can make upwards £700m in revenues at 50%+ margin and that is a lot of free cash flow. What people do not realise is the margin here is significant at 50% plus and the corporate costs are tiny, so all this profit will be free cash flow.

Regarding the OO i think they can easily manage without the extra £3m, but it will be spun negatively because people were argue that the lack of take up of OO is a sign of sentiment in the business. I've seen it all before, what was done with good intentions ends up another stick to beat them with because of manipulation.

How can you question orders? Anyone who has concerns about the demand for this product has no clue exactly the importance and significance of the quality of this test. There will be no relevant competition.
We have already been told that per the agreement we will supply 200k per week. That is 10m tests a year in the bag. It is as good as an order. The tricky bit is the UK RTC will realise that firstly they will still struggle to meet UK demand quick enough even after between them their capacity is significantly higher than when the agreement was put together.
Colin has indicated to expect a supply agreement to be announced. I am expecting this to come in at greater than 200k per week. I would put my shirt on it. Omega need to work out how to allocate their capacity between UK RTC and Mologic. Perhaps the best approach is to use up as much capacity as possible on the first available product and one you get to maximum capacity expand further. By the time they reach maximum capacity they will have significant cash coming ion so they could buy more kit.
I cannot believe anyone with enough knowledge of this pandemic and the current tests out there would question the demand for these tests. Once they get validation, which they will, if they could make a billion in a week, they would be able to sell them by the weekend whether the UK Government by 50m or 1m.

TGoodland, i dont think we can make excuses for the SP. Fact is if the market and the ones controlling want it at a price it will get there one way or another. It hasn't exactly been difficult for them its been a perfect storm for the negative camp.

Im certain that there will be much more than 50m required in the UK in the next 2 years as it will need repeat testing if the positive population is sub 20% as expected.

The problem with global is UK need to satisfy own demand first. The need to have further discussions about supply and capacity, This will no doubt add more value to us I am certain the supply agreement will demand more units.

Mologic tests will likely be more profitable so we need to either negotiate or quite rightly make more Mologic tests

It's being taken to 40p to stop people wanting to take up the OO. As soon as the OO deadline passes will be on the up IMO. Unfortunately Boards go for OO to reward shareholders but the manipulated market doesnt like letting the PI win.

People saying it's going below 40 because of placing shares flipping... they are hardly going to buy placing shares at 40 and flip them for 35.

One thing for sure is this share price is not fair value for the newsflow over the last 2 months not a chance in hell.

Some of these posters have no clue they just smell blood.

I think we all expected to be making tests by now. I think probably unrealistically now we have more info on the process of design testing and how much is needed to scale up and the process involved. But TBH i thought all along that they wouldn't be ready until government strategy demands they are ready so lets see what develops with government updates in the coming weeks.
Tech transfer commences immediately, so that will no doubt involve trial batches, but its important to establish quality control and grow production sensibly.
I would say Elisa tests will start ramping up in July as more approvals lead to more orders, so that should get us moving until RTC tests go live in August. By the end of September we should be producing several Elisa Tests, and both RTC and Mologic Lateral flow tests and hopefully be close to antigen lab and lateral flow tests. 3 months is only around 60 trading days.

Also look out for food and CD4 tests orders increasing as these are more profitable although much lower volume.

Safy - prefer not to get into price predictions, sorry. Only sets you up to be wrong. End of year everything will be in place with lots of milestones along the way which are value adding.

Davde, by middle i mean somewhere between the start and the end, not necessary bang in the centre! But you are right there is a long way to go. Testing will be needed for years to come. Smallpox last case was 1977 and wasnt declared eradicated until 3 years later. This was the last time a virus was eliminated.

I agree finncap are tozzers and most of the cogs of the market are too. They will do their thing but at the end of the day good businesses will add value. As i've said you can validate the projections with your own calculations and if you dont come up with something many multiples of this mcap then you have something wrong.

When i invested i did my calculations based on a prudent £1 per test knowing that would be a floor level to work from and never imagined for a second we could make 2m a week.

Some of the comments today are ridiculous....

"only 200k test per week", thats 10m a year and only for starters.
"Selling price wont be high" - Even at £1.5 for RTC this is hugely valuable, and will command a premium to be part of this.
"government will control it" - Well it was a government funded consortium from day 1. Without it we wouldnt be in the game

The strange thing today is this......

I've looked at many companies and looked at revenue projections and valuations, and you hope they come through. I have never been so confident at the minimum the low ball model is nailed on and probably I can say with confidence we should get somewhere near the top end within 9 months. We are in the middle of a pandemic and making tests. I mean it's the best time to make them.

But the thing is the risk factor is the tests arn't up to scratch, and today was a major derisking. Mologic Elisa tests are already in production and Mologic's lateral flow tests and rapid tests also approved. So its just a case of giving them time to get manufacturing up and running. Demand will be there. The Antigen tests are the great unknown, but Mologic seem to be well on their way with this.

I really cant see anything other than substantial growth coming.

It's not pie in the sky, if you'd bother to read the broker note you will see the revenue projections at the various utilisation. May not be 100% correct but it will be close enough. It's not really difficult maths to take 2m units apply a sales price and a margin. Even if you think £3 average for the 5 tests is too high, do it on £1.50. It's still significant value from this level.
Sorry but it is as simple as that, perhaps why there is an agenda to get in cheap.
They are not months behind the competition at all.
They will be the first acclaimed home antibody test.
The lab tests they are looking at are rapid tests and into markets that may not have had any testing at all yet.
Some of the early adopters will be run out of town because better products will come to market. We are dealing in those next generation tests. Out strategy is about the right test, not getting the quickest test to market.
It doesnt matter what other companies are doing demand is off the chart. No one will beat UK RTC to UK market. And they have a distribution network of 75+ countries for Mologic tests.

Its a dream position to be in to be making a product where demand will far outway supply.

Yes broker low ball valuation was £190m which is based on 10% capacity utilisation only plus bottom end estimates for CD4 and Food tolerance. Top end is something like £920m or £980m can't remember which. It's hard to see capacity utilisation at only 10% with the scale and severity of the pandemic.

PhoenixInvestoer - there is a reason why this will be different from now on. This will generate 100s of millions in revenue over the next 2 years. So you can pretty confidently say this is the last time ODX holders will go through a placing.

He didnt stop us the regulator demanded the rns and they were ill advised in writing it. There clearly was a reason for the rise. When your nomad is your broker and also a market maker on the stock its a conflict of interest that shouldnt be allowed.

Kop - watch the investor presentation from a few days ago. 200k is just what is committed to RTC at the moment

Revenue potential on the day of the first sky interview when it got to 90p:
200k per week RTC POC tests plus 46k per day Elisa antibody tests+ Food + CD4 = circa £88m revenue potential. I'd say potential valuation £250

Revenue potential post placing investment of £11m:
1m per week POC tests mix of RTC antibody and Mologic Anitbody and antigen tests, plus 1m per week Elisa antibody and antigen tests + Food + CD4 = circa £350 revenue potential, potential value circa £900m.

For a 20% dilution they have 400% revenue potential. As an investor i would give up 20% of something 4x bigger any day. If 40p is the price they had to raise at then its not ideal it's discounted, but if its that or miss out on the growth opportunity then it's a no brainer. But it doesn't mean this should be valued at the placing price. If it gets there its not to reflect value it's reflecting market mechanics. This is not a perfect market it's a manipulated market.

The share price says more about he state of our markets than the investment potential of this company.

At the time of the the 50m related to the UK RTC capability, with ODX at 10m.

Omega however post the placing investment will be able to make 2m tests per week, which is 104m per year. At an average price of £3, that would be £312m of revenue. Plus revenue from the food tolerance and CD4 we are talking £350m revenue potential.

This is HUGE!! And all people can think about is the placing price. Anyone that cant see the value to be unlocked here is blind.