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Sorry dibs but you are mixing up the traders view with the investors view. Being down short term due to a placing is unfortunate but not the end of the world for investors. Fact is as a result of the placing the upside is 10 x higher.
Traders might not ignore it, but long term investors buying and adding now will benefit long term.
From a technical point of view the 20 DMA crossed over the 50DMA on 30th Jun not yesterday. The RSI is in oversold territory and the MACD is turning up. Stochastic indicator is in buy territory and flattened out and the lower bollinger band is being respected.
So no it doesn't look terrible from a technicals point of view it suggest the down trend is ending and its in the buy zone on indicators indicating a potential reversal.
SP got to 31p just on signing the UK RTC agreement. Now with design freeze, Mologic Elisa CE mark and into production and orders, at least 2 regional approvals in including India being 17% of the global population, extension of Mologic agreement from 1 test to 4 including antigen lab and lateral flow tests, supply agreement for 0.5m CD4 tests and cash in the bank enabling production capacity to increase 10 fold.
Still to come: UK RTC supply agreement (expect minimum of 200k per month probably higher), UK RTC test approvals, completion of tech transfer and start of production, Government announcement of flagship testing strategy, potential overseas orders, Mologic Elisa test further approvals and orders, Mologic lateral flow tests into production, approvals and orders, Antigen lab and lateral flow test development, approvals, production, orders, Food tolerance test china self test approval expected any day which will be significant in itself, CD4 further orders and approvals, commencement of new development tests. Could be a few surprises along the way as well. The covid study on T cells is interesting i wonder whether we could add anything there. If scientists start to speak of immunity with greater confidence that will be a big boost for us as well.
If you get them cheap good luck to you, any buying in this range will make a serious return if they pull off a fifth of what they have promised.
You can moan all you like about the share price and those with a negative view or agenda can brag all they like, but fact is this is under priced, the share price is not reflective of the companies achievements and the growth potential is significant and can come from several angles. The share price has driven sentiment here, not the other way around. Bottom end valuation with terrible performance on covid tests is 2-3 times higher than this. Top end range ins 10-15 times minimum on a conservative multiplier.
I fully expect it to start moving up next week. There will be no further downward pressure and there will be constant newsflow as early as this month. Any selling into a rise will be taken up with new investors on each piece of news.
Personal preference would be for it to stay at 40p for a couple of months as then i can get my holding to the level i would like it to be, but i do expect the tables to start to turn here sooner rather than later.
They are cash flow positive from their core business and their admin expenses are low. They wont burn through the cash the cash is for capex to expand and for new test development. If they dont get the full cash they will have to hold fire on new development or overdraft, no big deal.
I think we will be surprised with the OO take up.
Its a shame that Omega have done some fantastic things and they really are moving forward, despite the fact that it's taking longer than we all hoped for, they are getting no credit for it. Funding of the level of this placing and the plan for the use of those funds should have been such a positive thing, but dark forces have taken over for their own benefit.
Instead of talking about the UK RTC and being part of something outstanding, along with other fantastic opportunities, people can't see past the current share price.
The best thing for us is just to get it voted through let the books balance and then wait for the news flow and sentiment to turn.
We will be fine, it's just not a very positive stage at the moment.
The market wont be able to ignore whats coming and once the placing is completed there's nothing holding it back.
Waste of time complaining. If all the shares were under pre-emption rights and not requiring approval i dont think we would be here as the shares would all have hit the market on 25th of June, book balanced, before the design freeze and India RNS.
I'm still not sure why they wern't all covered in pre-emption rights, i did try work it out and have asked if anyone can help. The worst part is these pre-emption rights are supposed to protect shareholders but becasue of the way the market's allowed to operate it causes uncertainty and quite often leads to short term damage.
Anyone telling you it isnt corrupt either has something to hide or is wrong. It's easy money for them and it's win win. If you can buy or sell something and then dictate the price that you want to sell or buy back, you make money every time. That's why these companies have been around so long and why PI's lose money. I have to say i expected it to be a little more challenging for them, but its been an easy job with some of the communications published and the delivery of tests taking longer than we expected
Forward selling is shorting. Below are the rules. Note the exemptions, they dont need to disclose it.
Everyone knows that they forward sell placing stock.
Read this. An example of forward sold shares that were voted against.
12m shares sold at say 55p average bought back at 40p placing is £1.8m profit. If they forward sold these shares, the placing got voted down and design freeze and India approval took it to £1, they would have to buy back on the market which would make a £6.6m loss.
IMHO this is why so much effort is going into driving negative sentiment, driving the shareprice down as this hedges the risk of the placing being voted down as they could be bought back on the open market profitably anyway. Proof in the pudding will be if it starts to head north shortly (maybe up to 2 weeks maybe friday afternoon) after the resolutions are passed.
Musy - what the price is anticipating is that 60% of the funsdraise, however unlikely, could be voted down leaving them with a 12m share short they cant fill. Its nothing to do with ODX and everything to do with balancing the books.
Things are uncomfortable at the moment. But just remember the most significant thing is they are expanding capacity to 2m tests per week. Capacity is where the value is to monetise the products. They don't expand like that if they are not confident of using it. 2m tests per week even at the least profitable product mix, would give them an annual profit in excess of the current MCAP. We are realistically 2/3 RNS away from this.
Duble D i have never moved the goalposts. I've always said im looking beyond short term. I am not looking for a quick buck from this, i am looking to continue to build a position and grow an investment and i will do well from it with that strategy.
ODX prospects is fantastic.
RTC - This will be a flagship, fanfare product when it is ready to roll out. We all expected this would have happened by now, which is the only negative. I think this is looking to be bigger than we may have thought. We expect to supply 200k per day per the MOU, i am expecting this may be increase once the supply agreement is announce. We are currently in the process of tech transfer so when the next announcement is made we should be ready to produce or already producing. I am wondering if they will stock pile a large supply to roll out nationwide a little later in the year.
Mologic - Elisa test is suitable for export markets and will be highly competitive. We are already producing.
The level of risk has been greatly reduce over the last month or so. Reduced risk should see added value.
Elon - I disagree. I dont think the market is valuing the business at all. The market has forced the share price to be where it is because thats where it wants the share price to be. It has nothing to do with value.
There is very little uncertainty about the companies plan. It's all there in the RNS and presentation. Orders are a non issue in my opinion, you have a minimum of two quality products where demand will be greater than supply. We shouldn't be concerned about approval, if Oxford have signed off RTC and we already know the Elisa test is a top quality test, and it's unlikely local approvals wont be achieved if is CE marked here. The only negative is that we probably expected them to be 2 months ahead of where they are now, and yes that stops us getting to the £1.50/£2 plus range at this point, but it certainly shouldn't hold us at 40p. The case for the prevalence of this pandemic is only growing by the week.
Our Elisa test is a high quality test with excellent credentials. The India approval is highly significant as it is 17% of the global population. Yes there were several tests on the list of approved tests, but ours will be highly competitive.
Our Elisa test has excellent results on accuracy for specificity and sensitivity. More importantly for the likes of the India market, it will compare favourably with Roche and Abbott on price, plus our test can be run on any instrumentation likely to be available in most labs. Roche and Abbott require expensive specialist equipment. Also our test can be run from a finger prick of blood, and does not require a phlebotomist for an intravenous blood draw. So our test could be sent out to individuals. It is a performance effective, cost effective and highly scalable solution so it will be highly competitive in the market for lab tests in the likes of India.