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TBH I would prefer them to be silent and then come out and delivered something far bigger than what the market expects (which is my expectation). Telling the market and then delivering never has the same impact as keeping expectations low and surprising the market.

IMO the longer this goes on, the bigger the deal they will deliver.

A prime example that stock prices are illogical but highly emotive. You can't really ever judge a company on stock price alone, you have to look at the disconnect in stock price and value. The value has grown (resource tripled in size, DFS up 20%, more cash in the bank), and therefore the disconnect has grown further. It's not always clear why, but the fact is, the value will continue to grow and the disconnect will either catch up or grow. With an event like financing coming up, it's unlikely the disconnect will grow inline with the value add. And the likelihood is that just like on the previous run up to 12p, the disconnect will close at an unexpected point in time. Unfortunately that's capital markets, they are not what they used to be.

No Computer - every update is a milestone for the end goal. Securing an SPG site might well be a key component to satisfy an investor that the more lucrative part of the DFS is achievable. Many are not expecting the SPG in-country facility to play a part yet. I must admit their plans are a bit contradictory whether this is happening with phase 1 or not until phase 2. But I suspect this is because they are trying to move things forward and expand earlier than what they have communicated, but it is dependant on finance and offtakes.

I think the likelihood is the MOU for the JV is no longer in play. I just can't see how in the current status of the project that Triessense can bring anything to the table worth giving up 50% of the SPG facility JV. I would imagine they will retain the whole thing or another investor will take the 50% JV.

If you are still thinking about the original DFS and wondering why they haven't funded this yet, you really don't understand this company.

They have tier 1 ambition, to be one of the most significant graphite projects in the world.

And all the hard work is done.

They have created a no brainer of an investment opportunity. it's not a case of if it will get funded, it is how.

They also have an LOI with the African Finance Corporation which includes P1 funding. Having multiple interested partied makes this more complicated. I still believe they could have funded P1 already, but to go through the drill campaign and enhanced DFS, they have moved this on to a much more significant project and have a preferred route they are working on. Another possibility is that one of the tenders they are in could lead to a strategic partnership.

If you look at some of the graphite deals with Tesla, GM, POSCO, and Government strategic plays, you get an idea of what might be on the table.

US Government are already in play with the grant and right for first refusal so whatever option they take they will have to work hand in hand with DFC.

You can also imagine mining majors will be interested.

Its really unique for a company like this to have options.

The current valuation is the investment amount they are seeking for P1! Likely to give up 20-25% equity, but being valued as if 100%! It’s mad!

I didn't think it was a particularly good interview. But still highlights the huge upside and that this is a conservative view based on funding assumptions that likely will be considerably improved on. As expected this is a view based on public information, and not inside info, with a sense of prudence. I do believe the company will deliver on several value adding items that are not currently modelled in regarding offtakes, funding structure and strategic partners.

Exactly…. Which leads to the question…. Wheres the share price target with a more likely funding scenario?!

It doesn't matter that its not in the DFS. It adds to their ability to show scale. And scale is what makes it more attractive to bigger players. Mike has talked about a potential funding partner for P1 with a future commitment to fund P2. It seems that there is a deliberate strategy here with the latest drill and JORC updates. The longer this goes in the more likely this is IMO.

DFS is restricted by sales, not production, sales is restricted by ability to sign offtakes, ability to sign offtakes is restricted by not yet being in production. Funding unlocks the chain.

I think you are missing the point - Q1 financing was discussed before the the JORC went up 200%. Before they made practically a new discovery that is potentially better than the original resource that they have prepared the DFS on. If they'd done a deal in January, they would have given up a lot of added value for nothing. They are in a much better position today than than have been at year end of Q1. With value added. It all adds to the investment case and to the value, and the increase in scale of the project opens it up to different options.

The P1 P2 plan was set some time ago, and this project has moved on since. It may well be that the plan goes ahead, but i would think that the sources of funding available have opened up greatly for P1 because of the improvement, Their preferred P1 funding partner today is more than likely different to what they expected when they set this strategy, and it is likely either much more favourable terms or it is strategic and linked to further expansion. Delay isn't always a bad thing. I believe in this case it is due to them seeking a much better outcome than what was expected when the DFC grant and DFS plan was set.

They are not having difficulties funding this project. They are waiting for their preferred option. Not many companies in this position have options. Not many still retain 100%. There is a reason they have held on to 100% for so long

Lol the Bezant deal and project is small fry compared to this, it's not even comparable.

As Mike Ralston has explained, project level finance will be $xm for y% of Orom cross, which will put an instant valuation on Blencowe's remaining share of Orom cross. My guess is it will be $50m for 20-25% of Orom cross, valuing BRES share at $150-200m. This will bput a valuation on the project that can't be argued with.

Having a financed deal will also add enterprise value for the anticipation of P2 funding.

It's mad, every man and his dog knows this is undervalued and the positivity here is growing with more and more investors starting to catch on! The tide will turn soon.

$45m is peanuts when expected to generate over $4bn in cash flow and the potential for even more.

Seems to me Mike had a gagging order with NDAs and Market abuse rules. All he can do is reiterate what they have said. I dont buy the narrative that they havn’t been able to resolve P1 funding yet. The project is too attractive. Im certain it’s a case of waiting for their preferred partner. The longer this goes on the more likely a bigger deal than expected will be announced IMO.

Https://www.dfc.gov/media/press-releases/dfc-board-approves-25-billion-new-strategic-investments-advancing

Would like to bet Blencowe have been a lot more prudent and thorough in their DFS than most and none of them have the profile Orom Cross will have with US Government funding.

Have to remember not all graphite is the same. Unlike other resources, graphite has individual characteristics and only the highest purity graphite is of high value and demand. Blencowe are at the highest level.

The qualification of end product sets them apart. Ensuring they have sales channels pre production sets the funding case.

Blue sky….. theres an estimated 2bn tonnes! That can supply the word many times over for years.

If you look at the share price after the DFS, we are seeing a similar pattern here from about 1p higher level and i believe it will kick on from here in an upward trajectory and pass through that year high.

We are £40m mcap with £2m cash. Looking for $45m/£33m of funding for P1. Its basically valuing the project at giving away 46% for -$45m and then not adding a premium for being funded.

Remember POSCO invested -$40m in Mahenge for 19%.

I am expecting a deal at around 20/25% for $45m, valuing Blencowe share of Orom cross at $135m-$180m without applying any premium for it being funded. So a minimum upside on a deal for P1 should be 248% which is just over 21p when including the cash. Thats low end for me. I would expect a funded P1 to add 20-40% of the investment valuation. So 25p upwards low end.

There are companies out there that would love to be in a position to have one funding option. To have multiple parties at both stages wanting to get involved in one of the mist significant graphite projects on the globe is incredible. 1 month, 2,3,4 it will happen