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Mologic Antigen test validation had the support of Commonwealth and Development Office

What do the Commonwealth and Development Office do?? Advise on travel policy. A very clear indication that the Mologic test is on the radar for airport testing, aside from the fact we know it was used in trials.

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/foreign-commonwealth-development-office

Looks like someone doesn’t want a certain gov contract award getting any airtime tonight!!!!

JDT - i think you make some sensible points. I'm not saying it would fall back to exactly pre covid level. But highlighting the Affimer platform could be a good thing adding value, but my point is if they cant make it work with covid, does it really add value or devalue it? I would say confidence would take a hit if they fail with covid.

The fundraise was a great achievement. They absolutely had to do it. It does come at a cost for some individuals but has given the company 2 years breathing space.

I do appreciate what they are trying to do. It's a great concept, with great potential. But AS certainly does not call a spade a spade, and his actions have created an unbalanced risk reward profile in my opinion.

For the amount of hype this gets, it needs to prove up some success is really my main comment. It has got ahead of itself, and too much success has been priced in in my opinion, success which has a much lower chance of success than is communicated.

DOH - you are a sick individual.

There is no strong evidence of ODX making Avacta's test. There is strong evidence that avacta are struggling with development and getting more hands involved.

OK so lets just only allow posts ramping the crap out of it all day. Doesn't matter why i bother to post, it shouldn't be a problem to add some balance if you are confident

jdt1990 - respect what you say about not being under the covid umbrella, but it is covid that has added over £1/4m in value and enabled a high equity raise.
It is very difficult to value what avacta have outside of covid. We know what it was worth before and we know how much cash they raised. But how long does that cash last? If Covid fails, you can't possibly think it will hold it's value based on the rest of the business. Even if it was worth it, people are here for the covid test. You can't just say another business was bought for x billion so this will be bought for that too. Sorry but AS had been playing this trick for a long time talking about market sizes and other companies. He has to prove that what he has is of any substance first. The partnership agreements are early stage development, and any substantial revenues are based on achieving speculative milestones.

This covid test was a huge opportunity to make a bold statement about Affimers. If they follow through it will be great for shareholders, but if they don't its a problem. Its a huge opportunity for external validation of the product, and it would speak volumes for their ability as a business if it fails, and any trust the market can have in the company.

LazyP - Just looking at the reaction to your post it proves some of those points. Nobody likes to hear a negative view that might suggest they are going to lose money, it's natural. But when there is a cult like following on a company that have no substance to their height claims it is very concerning. People can make all the humorous comments they like, abuse etc.... fact is it doesn't take the doubt away. If Avacta pull something out the bag, fair play to people for following with blind faith, but it is very concerning where PIs take their confidence from. But this is far far far from a sure bet, and there is a lot more to be sceptical about than positive about.

Even if a test doesn make it, the commercials are nowhere near what people have come to expect. People expecting £100s of millions of tests based on AS comments at £20 or something a test. It's clear that the price point needs to be nearer £5 for starters, and with another company making the tests that's an extra mouth to feed so Avacta margin on a £5 test will be much smaller than a company making their own branded test. You can say the volume will make up for it, but even with BBI, Abingdon, ODX the best case with their other products they may get a couple of million tests..... rolling it out globally, well all other test manufacturers are already struggling with manufacturing capacity and the competition to consume this is high. If Avacta were serious about their test they should have invested in their own capacity, brought in experienced team. But the simple fact is avacta have nothing to bring to the party other than the reagent, and they are expecting other companies to do all the work with their expertise to develop a test that they can take all the credit for. I mean if you made new super car batteries would you go to Tesla and ask them to make you a car? No, if the battery was better than theirs they would ask to use your batteries, they wouldn't build you a car and give you all the commercial rights to the car. The picture that gets painted of this company is a long way from where i perceive the reality to be, and only a validated test with confirmed high volume numbers and confirmed margins will change it. AS has been talking about billion £ markets for years like he owns them, but you have to validate something to offer to that market before you can claim a piece. Once we see that happen, if it ever does, i'll revisit my opinion but this perspective of superiority over other tests is highly unlikely. Avacta were reliant on outperforming other tests in specificity and sensitivity being ok and acceptable at a modest level. A lot is still to be proven on sensitivity, but it is clear other companies are already achieving 100% or near specificity, so avacta has no advantage like AS has been so vocal about claiming.

Chuggley - it has been a tough ride but like many we are learning as we go with pandemics and testing. We are right in the mix just as LFT are coming online.
We have suffered from all the bad things on being an AIM stock, we have all the good things to come. Profit is king and Omega will be highly profitable with high volume production. I am in no doubt about it.

The next month or so the cream will rise to the top. ODX will be at the top.

They already have the 2 most sought after tests in the world. They are no longer reliant on speculate development. It's not all about making and selling and they are moving forward quickly from here. 500k end of Dec, 2m end of April.

Cannot argue the SP there moves on any glimmer of light. ODX have several positive indicators which should be driving this forward and static.

Afamaman - But the reagent isn't really the problem. In a lab, and antibody reagent will always bind to the target. Its kind of what its made for. Affimers are only proven in the lab. There are several different options out there that test developers ca use. If Affimers were superior why are we not seeing other test developers licence Affimers? That would have been a better model in my opinion rather than trying to deliver a end solution test themselves. The complexities around the antigen test is more to do with the sampling. If you take a sample that does not have a detectible level of target it doesn't matter which reagent you use. We have zero evidence to suggest Affimers offer any performance benefit than any other reagent.

They have signed multiple development contracts, trials. Everything is still in an early stage. The initial commitment is low and it's all based on speculative success. I am not saying it wont achieve success down the line, just saying you can't run before you can walk.

I'll deliver your coffees when AS delivers a validated test, How about that?

I take your point about the level of the guy, i made assumptions.

Well no it says development project. Nothing to do with manufacturing.

Here's a question? If they are going to work together on manufacturing, why have they not announced it? BBI was announced in Aug, Abingdon soon after. So what's stopping them announcing something if they have an agreement?

CaptainStanley - Firstly it wasn't me that made the Steve Jobs analogy, i don't think its accurate, i am more an advocate of the Del Boy analogy!!!

Regarding the "Wonder Molecule", i have never written it off. my problem is the perceived chance of success which has been way over stated. Affimers were launched in 2014 and if they really were a "wonder molecule" i suspect they would have achieved something more concrete by now. It arouses my suspicions when the single largest commercial opportunity for testing comes to light and Avacta make noises that they are going to lead the world. And maybe they still might have a say in it, but it's been ass about face, they should have been more realistic not sold dreams of 100s of millions of tests at £20 a piece, got on proved up the test and then made these claims. AS is well schooled in saying things that lead investors to add 2+2 and come up with millions, and that is what i don't like. It disappoints me that they went from a nobody to claiming to be world beaters overnight. Until Avacta confirm a validated test that is comparable or better than the leading tests that are coming to light, my opinion will unlikely be changed.

Regarding Omega, they don't just "make things for people". They work with the best to ensure they have the best products. They use their expert manufacturing capabilities and distribution. They will be printing money whichever test they make.

Arnold - i have always wished you good luck. I have no interest in seeing you lose money. I have no interest in failure. It's just my opinion. Please tell me where Omega have committed any of their 2m capacity to avacta?

ArnoldPalmer - i 100% stand by that post. If you think an Omega mid level scientist working on the development of avacta's test changes that then good luck.

If we all had the same opinion on everything it would be a very bland world. I have no interest in offending anyone, and i have no interest in conforming to the opinion of the majority.

As i said i hope for you guys it is good news, but i question why they are involved in development.

If i am wrong i will indeed hold my hands up and congratulate you guys, but so far not even one manufacturer have made a test and we are talking about a 3rd. If the linkedin profile is genuine and it talked about TT i would be in your corner, but the fact it mentions development is not positive. Why do Avacta need Omega help with development?

Okehurst - i guess we will just have to wait for further validation, but Mologic is where my money lies all day over any other company.

Sleepydave - i 100% agree collaboration is the way to go and the industry must work together, The point is though, that the only thing Avacta have to offer are Affimers. And if they are not working they are not part of this. BBI, Abingdon, Omega - they do not need avacta. They have capabilities in high demand and will have competition for their capacity.

I have no hatred for any company. I am just being real about the chances of success or at least giving my own opinion on it.

It absolutely astonishes me that Omega have an agreement with Mologic who are the best partner they could have achieved and it goes down like a damp squib yet people get excited over a potential test from a company that have never had a commercial product go to market. The likes of Vatic show that past success isn't necessary, but they have a very different offering to Avacta, who are focused purely around one component. When you have something complex where you absolutely have to use one component (Affimers) it makes it so much harder to make a success of it if that one component isn't up to it then it fails. Nothing has convinced me Affimers offer any advantage or are even comparable to traditional reagents. We only have AS say so. The proof in the pudding is in the eating, and so far nobody has eaten any pudding.

Okehurst - Mologic are not using Aptamer. Aptamers were trialed. That's it.

Mate you need to reassess who you put on a pedestal. Mologic are rock starts in the LTF domain. They are the creme de la creme. They are pure scientists not capitalists. They have told us they intend to do more validation work on a global scale in January. The FASTER program is really what it says on the tin. It is a quick turnaround assessment. Mologic are not the type of company that will use a small sample size to inflate their performance characteristics. It's 92% not 62.