The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Hi Okehurst hope you are well.
I’ve looked at recent comms from Avacta and I think they are subtly trying to detract from the idea idea that their test is high on gov priority.
Alex Shepherd Vatic ceo linked in profile is an interesting read.
I still come back to there is nothing any of the parties that you might think are involved can do that Mologic can’t. That’s why they all want to work with Mologic
I certainly think they have been making antibody tests whilst they wait to move forward with antigen.
I suspect TT delay is more to do with Mologic end rather than technical at ODX.
I think the time to deliver tests has been well known, why rush it, get validation right, use the time to carry on with antibody kits
It is not just Mologic test and Avacta test in the running......
Vatic is a highly credible test that appears to be going through a number of trials at the moment.
Mologic are working with Vatic. I believe the Vatic test is a direct competitor of the Avacta test, also being a spike protein test. There is a lot more evidence of progress and existence with this test, and the website and messaging is top drawer, ready for marketing roll out to public.
Omega are very well positioned here, they have the Mologic test to brand as their own and a government contract that if any other test is needed, they will make it.
It could be different tests are used in different circumstances.
Not long to go now i suspect until things become much clearer. Whatever is going on, ODX will be making 2m tests a week and selling the lot.
Twatcher - the fact is to get one contract with one large number on is very rare. It's not a gov contract its a normal contract in the normal course of a new business stream. They cannot possibly put a value on it as it is dependant on demand because of the nature of the service and customer. This is very different to a UK gov contract where they know upfront they will be ordering a certain number of millions. Nobody is claiming this is going to be worth hundreds of millions in the next 6 months, but genuine investors will be pleased at another revenue stream that they are probably not using in their forecast valuations. Whether it brings in £100k or £10m this year nobody knows, not us, not Omega, not Screen4, but we would all rather know about it than not. We know it is a competitive test with huge potential with the home test sample approval. We know antibody testing is still in its infancy and we know it still has a bigger role to play, and that this lab service can offer solutions to some of the concerns of LFT. So there is plenty to be positive about.
The launch of the very lab service was RNS reach - nobody had a problem with it then. Last 2 ABC updates, Reach.
Seriously am i reading people discrediting the rns because its an RNS reach rather than a regulatory RNS? Go and look at several other RNS. RNS reach is exactly the right service for this information. It's not regulatory like delivering financials or PDMR dealings.
People moan we dont get contract update and they moan when we do. Any mug can see they can't put a value on it and announce numbers because they cannot predict the future.
https://www.lseg.com/areas-expertise/market-information/regulatory-news-service/reach
Dibs wow are you still here picking holes....
Please tell me how they can announce a contract value and volume? How can they predict the sales over a 3 year period of a new product in an ever evolving market?
The government have a reluctance to use LFT for antibody testing for home use due to the lack of control with results capture. This solves that problem. To have the approval for home collection and post to a lab opens up many opportunities, and it doesn't use up LFT manufacturing capacity.
This as a lot of potential in giving people convenience of home collection with the confidence of lab analysis. When you link in immunity passports and certification further down the line, this can play a key role. Notice on the UK Gov antibody tenders now, they mention testing kits in the £100m tender, not specifically lateral flow.
Omega have positioned themselves very well to adapt to testing demands and preferences. Not reliant on a single test or type of test. Covid is also a blueprint for diagnostics long term, so opens up longer term opportunities.
Cambridgeshire....
Seems to be a few newbies not up to speed.
Omega have 2 sites, one in Alva one in Cambridge.
At Alva they develop and make LFT. They have 2m capacity by April. They will be making UKRTC antibody kits and have been since CE mark and tech transfer in about Sep. They have Mologics triple antibody LFT, under their own Visitect brand, and they are working on TT of the Mologic antigen test to brand under their own visitect brand. They have a contract with the government for manufacture of an antigen test, most likely Mologics but could be another. CD4 and advanced diseases tests also made in Alva.
In Cambridge they have the lab service with Elisa manufacturing capacity and lab services. They make the food tolerance tests their. They have capacity to make 46k Mologic Elisa tests per day. We don’t know the lab processing capacity.
So today’s news......
omega will manufacture the Elisa test kits, Screen4 sell the service to the client and Omega process the lab test, so they get paid twice in effect, for the production and the lab testing service. The Elisa test is approved for home sample collection, so blood capillary sample sent by post.
This is significant because it means mass antibody testing can be done with home sampling, using otherwise unused Elisa capacity and not taking up LFT manufacturing capacity that can be directed to antigen tests.
Fabulous bit of business by Omega and shows the real potential of the Elisa test. Solves the issue of reporting results.
The self test home collection allows home use without using up LFT manufacturing capacity which is needed for antigen tests. Huge revenue opportunity on top of LFT, which many are overlooking.
The government are really doing the public out of valuable health critical information by not allowing ease of access to home antibody testing. The science is there now they have to get moving with this.
If antibody response is stronger in those that have had covid previously that is key information. Maybe you don't need a second dose until further down the line freeing up doses for others.
I think knowing if you have had covid or if you have immunising antibodies is crucial information. I suspect i had Covid, and i am walking around with the assumption that my body can deal with it as i wasn't hospitalised. What if i am wrong. What if i never got covid or i did but have no immune response? I could be walking around with a false sense of security rightly or wrongly. There are ways to get an antibody test yes, and i am now going to do that, but it should be a lot easier to access cheap self tests rather than paying a professional to watch you prick your finger and drop some blood on a stick.
Mass antibody tests have been promised for 9 months, the use case is there and s strong. Now time to get on with it. Even if we have to pay for it ourselves over the counter.
Top post tricky.
Seriously is that the best comment you can come up with... Gov sign a contract with them and you say that.
What do the government want in return for the equipment.... taking a bit of a stab in the dark, but i think they might want Covid tests. Security of supply. Not to be slatted by the media and public for running out. This is investment in the diagnostics industry for years to come, its not just about providing a bit of free kit.
What are the government going to do with it if they take it back??? Put it in the science museum?!
Do one dibs you have zero vision of this stock.
OK so 1 year ago that had capacity to make 100k tests, which was underused trying to establish a product portfolio.
12 months later they have expanded to 2m tests per week, and have the lucrative government contract no doubt several other LFT manufacturers wanted. Even got the government to get the equipment for them. Capacity currently at
around 1m 6 weeks max away from getting to 2m. They have 2 world class covid tests, plus the only triple antibody LFT. They have formed a tight relationship with Mologic which puts them at the centre of the UK and Global fight against covid. They have achieved WHO pre approvals for CD4 test having the only approved test of its kind, to be included in upcoming 2021 budgets from many of the worlds leading aid organisations. Recognised Elisa strategy not working, refocused to LFT and Lab service. They have achieved self test home use for food tolerance testing. Staff increased many times over. Money in the bank and balance sheet capitalised. Also 2 new development tests in the pipeline. Put themselves bang in the centre of an under developed under appreciated industry will worlds of headroom for growth.
But apparently they have achieved zero. No idiot looks at that trading update and thinks that's a reflection of what is coming in the next financial year and years after. They have been very open and transparent with that unlike other companies. They have spent the year positioning themselves ready for an onslaught of activity. The delays caused by governments, regulators and scientists as well as developments are out of their hands. Any fool can see that the LFT market is only just about to begin. LFT is now all over the media, every tom dick and harry now know about them, whereas a few months ago there was a lack of knowledge.
So yes i stand by everything i say about this company, this is still at the start of an incredible growth journey. I suspect 6 weeks time you will be gone from this BB for good sick of looking at the SP several times higher than today's.
Pottery that's the 4th time you've posted that today and i stand by it.
As i said, i never normally begrudge a director taking profit.
If you think the sells today are comparable to a CEO ramping the crap out of a stock and selling a third of his holding for the sole purpose of buying a house you are deluded. Especially having not delivered a thing.
Colin King sells - 0
If Colin King puts pout an RNS tomorrow saying he has sold 1 third to buy a house i'll be concerned. But i suspect the chances of that happening are zero.
There's just been constant supply of stock right from L&G, Sneller, placing. This has meant some 40% plus of stock needed to be taken up by PIs. And that undervalues the stock because they are selling for less than what the market should value it at. And the under performance of the stock in the wake of this has just lead people to right ODX off. Sensible investors will see that as an opportunity, rather than a problem, because at the end of the day profits are the biggest pull in terms of added value and its easy to work out why ODX is attractive. It's a gift to keep added to an undervalued position. The good thing is now there is no sell side pressure, it's just traders, and games.
The Directors sells added some supply at an unfortunate time, probably right when leverage trades were being aggressively sold down.
It's just about timing of transfer of stock. No IIs doesn't help, but you can bet when that contract is announced if they aren't already hovering they will be.
Really never seen so much rubbish posted on here.
Yeah it's taken a long time to get to where they are today, but what they have achieved is incredible, from what they were this time last year. They are now max 6 weeks away from producing 2m tests per week, which at low end generates £10m profit a month, more like £20m a month by my calculations. The government contract is amazing news for ODX. It is clear whatever has caused delays and things to go wrong up until now, the production of lateral flow tests is just about to really kick into gear. Nothing can stop this.
So what some directors sold some shares. Yeah it's not the news we wanted this morning, but you have to peel it back and look at the context. Colin King sold 0. Many of these options have been held years. There are issues with tax and losing benefits etc from not exercising them at this point.
The biggest indication of what's to come is the Surescreen award. £500m. We will likely get a similar award, and you can bet this is just the first of it. There will me a huge market bigger than d
supply for a few years.
Boris announcing plans on 22nd Feb. LFT will be a big part of that plan.
Regarding the test, it is clear to me that Mologic are just trying to get final approvals and validations over the line. Glad they are holding off, as this will make sure when an announcement comes there is no room for criticism.
There is this horrible manufactured sentiment hanging over this stock, and it is largely riven by an undervalued stock price. Had that contract news pushed us and held in the 140-150 range there would be a whole new mood. And that's where it should be right now. So easy to see where this is heading, people are getting played and it will all catch up in the end. Just like it was in the 40s and everyone was moaning, saying they are selling, same here now we have new news. It is buyers who will make a crust here not sellers. 2021 end of year this will be a new monster.
As i said pottery i don't begrudge a director taking shares. Do you think AS actions are comparable to the directors here that have sold shares per today's announcement, as i don't remember any of them making ramping up the stock making billion dollar claims like AS has?
The directors that have sold shares here haven't been quoted as saying they are going to sell 10s of millions of tests every month for $20 a test talking about billion dollar markets. Note Colin King sold zero shares.
Jeremy sold 1/3 only.
Will Rhodes has 1.8m options still.